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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1
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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Excellent run!  Near perfect!

CR, how do we hang on to the cold when this thing comes NW? The probable thing in my mind that will happen is the vortex will be faster to move out or moves in further north and the storm comes north.  But that's the cold air feed.  Just wondering what the path to score with this one would be? 

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26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Excellent run!  Near perfect!

 

13 minutes ago, griteater said:

If this keeps up, Pack is going to be forced to renew his weather subscriptions

I guess a slp crossing Boca at day 7 is good.... Euro has it SE of Boston at the same time.  Talk about model consensus...we want chaos until inside day 5.  

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22 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

CR, how do we hang on to the cold when this thing comes NW? The probable thing in my mind that will happen is the vortex will be faster to move out or moves in further north and the storm comes north.  But that's the cold air feed.  Just wondering what the path to score with this one would be? 

Oh don't kid yourself.  This was always going to be a perfect timing thing to have a shot.  It's one of those situations where you walk a fine line between the cold press and dry and less press and rain.

If we assume the ULL comes out and doesn't get squashed completely, which I think is likely, then based on past experience, we should assume it will remain stronger than the models indicate at D8.  We should also assume that there will be more precip on the north side than shown at D8.  That's where will will find the lucky snow stripe.

All of that is assuming no phase.  If we get a full phase, we will get a stronger, farther north storm.  The snow for the lucky zone will be robust.

Like I said earlier, given no Arctic air mass invading and no deep snow pack to our NW, cold air is likely to be marginally cold enough in the north sections of the storm.  I want it to stay suppressed until about an hour out!

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

This ones dead! Nothing in our favor. Even if it does come north, it'll be too warm! :( Fun winter!

Well yeah I guess.  IMO the only way it comes north is because the vortex 50/50 eases up (I'm so tired of waiting for phases, nothing ever phases anymore, it's not phasing).  Vortex eases up then so does our cold.  Either way we get no snow.  

Still like the last week in February though.  Looks like a nice little storm signal on the GEFS.  Still need to see if we can get cold air though.  

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

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GEFS still looking about the same in the LR.  GEPS generally agrees.  Has the EPS come around yet?  Other indexes are about the same as yesterday, as far as I can tell.

Regarding the D8 storm, we're walking a thin line.  I still believe that someone in the SE is going to get some snow from this.  But right now, it's impossible to say who.  We'll just have to wait and see, but I'd lean toward a storm being there as opposed to suppression to oblivion.  The cold air is still going to be the problem in my view (again, barring a phase -- and even then, it'll be a problem). Right now, I would favor the same areas that saw snow back in January.  We'll see the GFS come back.  That's my prediction.  Plus, it thundered a lot the other night, so we have that going for us! :)

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65 (1).png

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

GEFS still looking about the same in the LR.  GEPS generally agrees.  Has the EPS come around yet?  Other indexes are about the same as yesterday, as far as I can tell.

Regarding the D8 storm, we're walking a thin line.  I still believe that someone in the SE is going to get some snow from this.  But right now, it's impossible to say who.  We'll just have to wait and see, but I'd lean toward a storm being there as opposed to suppression to oblivion.  The cold air is still going to be the problem in my view (again, barring a phase -- and even then, it'll be a problem). Right now, I would favor the same areas that saw snow back in January.  We'll see the GFS come back.  That's my prediction.  Plus, it thundered a lot the other night, so we have that going for us! :)

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65 (1).png

Is the bathtub finally sloshing? 

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

GEFS still looking about the same in the LR.  GEPS generally agrees.  Has the EPS come around yet?  Other indexes are about the same as yesterday, as far as I can tell.

Regarding the D8 storm, we're walking a thin line.  I still believe that someone in the SE is going to get some snow from this.  But right now, it's impossible to say who.  We'll just have to wait and see, but I'd lean toward a storm being there as opposed to suppression to oblivion.  The cold air is still going to be the problem in my view (again, barring a phase -- and even then, it'll be a problem). Right now, I would favor the same areas that saw snow back in January.  We'll see the GFS come back.  That's my prediction.  Plus, it thundered a lot the other night, so we have that going for us! :)

 

Ok CR if you're right...you not only start the thread, you start all threads next year.  You're prognostication will have earned you that distinct honor.  I think we're about at day 6 at this point though aren't we? If there's enough cold north of 85 though I'd be surprised, once it turns north. 

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