Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's not cancelled...just pointing out that weak +enso with wQBO are warm and snowless. Maybe we get a freak QBO flip and then we will be partying like 03/04. When do you think our next good winter will be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: When do you think our next good winter will be ? When I get time to come hike from Woody Gap to Trey Mtn - I get snowed on every time. So cross fingers my knee is back in full tilt boogie AT shape by next November, and we'll rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: When do you think our next good winter will be ? We are headed into the solar minimum so it's likely somewhere in the next several years we have a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, whamby said: after Trump causes a nuclear war... So never? Dang. I'm taking my sled back to ACE Hardware in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL....You said it's not much different then we have been seeing? Jan is +7 to +12 across the SE. They have no blocking, big AK low...seems warm to me. Even JB said they sucked. With that said the weeklies are useless...I didn't say I believe them, just commented on what they showed...torch pattern. I didn't agree on "mega torch" that's all. The weeklies are acutually colder than what we've been seeing, so you proved my point. I've talked about how much I trust any model outside Day 10....Euro Day 10 has a 50% verification score, that should tell you enough. I posted on the JMA, not a good look. Bastardized is freaking because his deep cold icebox is in jeopardy, we are still in play for seasonal temps based solely on weeklies that will likely change, so this whole exchange is damn near pointless...but thanks for the "LOL". That's my 3 posts for the day, we'll see ya tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: That's my 3 posts for the day, we'll see ya tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The Dec 1 to Jan 26 avg of daily AO is +1.332 which is the 4th highest out of 67 years back to '50-'51. ++AO and La Nina (or weak cool ENSO) is obviously a bad combo...it's even higher than the 2011-2012 winter thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, griteater said: The Dec 1 to Jan 26 avg of daily AO is +1.332 which is the 4th highest out of 67 years back to '50-'51. ++AO and La Nina (or weak cool ENSO) is obviously a bad combo...it's even higher than the 2011-2012 winter thus far Well dang the number one year was probably my favorite winter of all time. Blizzard of 93 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 memorable snow storms and all around cold winters don't always go hand in hand dude. especially in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Big changes on GFS and GEFS overnight around day 10-12. first, the OP is much more south with a Day 9-10 system, with deep cold inbound. The old run had a lakes low with cold stuck in Canada I mentioned a few days ago I was interested in Jan 6-7ish. The Euro changed too, instead of a west coast trough it now completely killed it, popping a low in the pacific and creating a conus ridge with a shortwave diving through...however, the placement of cold has changed on the 00z EPS. IMO this isn't a bad trend, get some cold and confluence to the north. If a low forms just west of the aleutians as depicted on the 06z GEFS to create a couplet with our AK/Russia ridging, there basically has to be ridging on the west teleconnecfing to the ridge, which would bring cold to the east. Still way too early, but good trends in modeling IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 hours ago, packbacker said: I miss TClyde, he said we just needed patience that chances would be coming. Jon, that is an interesting look on the GFS ! Cold chasing moisture, but if we could get a low to pop off TX at the tailend, that would be money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I checked out the ensembles on TT this morning, and the general pattern evolution is not really all that bad. This post has nothing to do with individual storm threats. That said, the advertised pattern is not a snowstorm pattern, per se, but it does look (at least at 500 mb) to feature normal to below normal temps in the eastern US in the medium to LR. I'll post 3 maps for various time periods for the 6Z GEFS. First, at 192, you can clearly see the Omega ridge, that DT has pointed out several times this winter, that has taken shape out west. This repeating pattern has effectively kept us out of the icebox this winter by allowing the primary direction of our air masses to be from the Pacific, instead of the arctic. When you're dealing with a warm Gulf and Atlantic, marginal Pacific air masses won't get the job done in the SE. You can also see our friend, the AK block, as the key component of the Omega ridge. Also notice the elongated PV with two distinct centers, one over the pole/Russia and one over SE Canada. We have a neutral PNA, a +AO and a +NAO, with semi-zonal flow across the US. With no SER signal, temps should be near normal, I would think. Now, at 300, you can see the evolution of the pattern. The Omega ridge is breaking/has broken down, and the AK block has weakened substantially and retrograded toward Russia. But the circulation pattern that was set in motion because of it has evacuated the PV center from Russia, causing the PV to better consolidate over toward our side of the pole. We have more of a NW component to the flow entering the SE now. I would guess that temps should respond in a general below normal fashion, although probably not much below normal. The PNA looks slightly positive, with the AO and NAO still negative. Finally, at 384, the PV has consolidated and is NE/north-central Canada. The AK block has dissipated, and the flow continues to enter the SE from the NW. We still have fairly strong Pacific component, as the strong Pac jet continues, aided by a GOA low that has taken shape, hopefully a temporary feature. The PNA looks neutral, with some ridging in the EPO space, while the NAO and AO continue to be positive. Overall, this continues to look like a normal to below normal temp pattern in the SE, with still no SER signal in place. I do not know what surface temps will look like exactly, but I would imagine that we'd have frequent highs moving through and bouts of clouds and light precip from time to time. I do not see a signal for a big SE winter storm (or a big storm anywhere in the US, for that matter), although a minor event shouldn't be ruled out. I also do not see any indication of a torch pattern. The 0Z GEFS basically generally agrees with this assessment, as does the GEPS. I can't see the EPS post 240, so I don't know about that. And hopefully, Jon will post the CFS for us. Assuming this depiction is close to reality, I don't know where the pattern evolves to from here. But hopefully, with the PV on our side of the world, we can have a shot or two at something down the line and avoid the torch. At some point, the pattern will change. As long as the coldest air is on our side of the globe, we're at least in the game, especially if we can luck into some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 CR, great post ! Very informative and logical! Busy day at work!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: CR, great post ! Very informative and logical! Busy day at work!??? Thanks man. Brick gave me some of his posting time, since his work dropped the hammer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 45 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks man. Brick gave me some of his posting time, since his work dropped the hammer! Lol! I wish we could get one more legit threat, to see it quiet from Brick from 9-5, then about 30 posts from him between 5:30-6:00! All that built up posting withdrawal ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z gfs wants us to keep the flizzard watch in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks man. Brick gave me some of his posting time, since his work dropped the hammer! What happened to Brick? He can't post during work hours anymore? Great writeup BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The Jedi Master says could be some hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 14 minutes ago, packfan98 said: 12z gfs wants us to keep the flizzard watch in effect! Not a bad little vort, nice finger swath of snow on VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: What happened to Brick? He can't post during work hours anymore? Great writeup BTW. Thanks! He said they were telling employees they had to do work at work and not surf the internet so much. Such a move is detrimental to weather posting production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not a bad little vort, nice finger swath of snow on VA/NC border. Any chance that energy could hook up with the blob of moisture crossing over northern Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Any chance that energy could hook up with the blob of moisture crossing over northern Florida? Very very little chance. The trough is too positively oriented and trajectories are out of the west and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Very very little chance. The trough is too positively oriented and trajectories are out of the west and NW. Never give up! Hope is all we got! Living on a wing and a prayer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Nice storm signal for NC for 2/6-2/7 on the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Nice storm signal for NC for 2/6-2/7 on the 12z GEFS. can you elaborate with pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: can you elaborate with pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 little love there...not much though. way out in time so you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Euro with a great overrunning event day 7-8, weak wave, HP all over head....but 850's +2 to +4 with 2m in mid 30's. Then potentially another bigger one day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Euro with a great overrunning event day 7-8, weak wave, HP all over head....but 850's +2 to +4 with 2m in mid 30's. How are the surface temps? Looks like there could be some CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Not quite a classic ice set up, but pretty dadgum close. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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