packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 That sound you hear is JB keeling over after seeing the mega torch weeklies. Weeklies say we bloom mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: After all this good news , on this page alone, looks like a " winter cancel" is due ! Winter Cancel! Thank goodness for the SSW, we wouldn't want to get any more snow! Maybe we can get a stratospheric cooling event to top it off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: When is JB going to throw in the towel, I wonder? Hopefully, if we have no shot at winter weather this year, we can at least break some heat records. By the way, how did the CFS look today? It was looking pretty good yesterday. Imma going to call him and ask!!! From what i gather this morning he has the towel in his hands now! He had good reasoning for his forecast, it could have just as easily went his way? just unlucky and looks like it's going to go the other way.... let's go fishing/Golfing................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Maybe we can get a stratospheric cooling event to top it off! LOL...sadly we should have a strat that seasonally should be weakening now but it just wants to strengthen even with the big displacement at the top. 4 out of past 6 have been dud winters, odds are it will snow again in the next few years. I mean, it can't not snow forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Imma going to call him and ask!!! From what i gather this morning he has the towel in his hands now! He had good reasoning for his forecast, it could have just as easily went his way? just unlucky and looks like it's going to go the other way.... let's go fishing/Golfing................................ Winter 11-12 redux! wax up the water skis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Imma going to call him and ask!!! From what i gather this morning he has the towel in his hands now! He had good reasoning for his forecast, it could have just as easily went his way? just unlucky and looks like it's going to go the other way.... let's go fishing/Golfing................................ Just stupid if he doesn't change his forecast, he has a few days till Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Winter 11-12 redux! wax up the water skis Unreal, We can't catch a break with a good winter anymore.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Just stupid if he doesn't change his forecast, he has a few days till Feb. Here's what he has to say, FWIW- The winters over crowd is certainly using the Euro to make their case. They may be right of course. However I am amazed at how people dont go and look to see if the model makes sense. The post earlier earlier dealt with the operational epo, but the Ensemble is negative day 10 and the WPO is really in the tank so here is what I think. First of all, there is plenty on the table that can surprise people in the front 7 days. But to day 10, there may be a primary center that heads up west, but the system will likely secondary along the mid atlantic coast anyway. The trough in the 10-15 will likely amplify more than forecasted as the ensembles have the look of a model that is seeing alot of systems and cant figure out which to jump on And by the way, for as warm as the Euro looks, it snows and ices to start for instance around DC. so as warm as it looks, and I think it wont be that warm, that warm solutions is still trying to start as snow. But one has to ask oneself, what is the net result of the negative EPO. Its to kick that system out quicker and since they cold air is in the way, it means the storm is likely to be flatter, or secondary in the longer term. Does not mean a center cant get to the lakes, but its likely to have a center developing further south. So we will see. Before that though, the 8-15 2 days ago ( it was 3 days ago we brought up those colder analogs) has been trimmed back to this which may not be cold enough in Texas given the 6-10 day analog temps are like this it is based on 00z yesterday so its 5-9 now BTW the Euro MJO stops and heads back in a way that it never gets out strongly into the warm phases day 10-15 and is back in phase 8 by day 20 interesting... Euro Weekly Kiss of Death if Its Right The only saving grace is its MJO foreacst, which goes into 5 by day 10, but is in 8 by day 20 But the big key to all this is the EPO.. as the model then turns it positive, and that is a bad sign. I have not yet changed my ideas as I wish to watch this for a while, as up through the first 10 days of February , the ideas that have gotten us here have had merit. But I did not see this coming as all the things I have been showing you, suggested that the seasonal variation which usually argues for the trough further east would carry the day. The Euro says no ( it does try to bring it back in March) but the warmer idea its implying here would break the back of winter, and my forecast. So I have alot of work in front of me, since the work in back of me, if this is right, is for naught once past Feb 10. I am not changing my ideas, I am saying to you I see all this that is plainly different from what I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Not trying to be the eternal optimist here because I'm really not. Around Christmas, most of the models and people on here were poo pooing January. I got 4 inches at the beginning of the month that was on the ground for 3 days. For anyone to act like they know for certainty what the entire month of February will look like is full of it. I have seen nothing to prove anyone or anything can forecast that far in advance. No one. So, throw in the towel if you wish but it's out of ignorance. Don't even pretend it's science. It can snow pretty well here until early March and tis the season for strong upper level, closed off lows, that can generate their n own cold air. Those can be fun, especialy into the North Carolina mountains as late as May in the past. It's January 26th. Far from the end of "snow possibility" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, DixieBlizzard said: Not trying to be the eternal optimist here because I'm really not. Around Christmas, most of the models and people on here were poo pooing January. I got 4 inches at the beginning of the month that was on the ground for 3 days. For anyone to act like they know for certainty what the entire month of February will look like is full of it. I have seen nothing to prove anyone or anything can forecast that far in advance. No one. So, throw in the towel if you wish but it's out of ignorance. Don't even pretend it's science. It can snow pretty well here until early March and tis the season for strong upper level, closed off lows, that can generate their n own cold air. Those can be fun, especialy into the North Carolina mountains as late as May in the past. It's January 26th. Far from the end of "snow possibility" season. That's a good point. However, I would also say that outside of a cold 5 or so day period, along with a decent winter event for some, January has pretty much been poo poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's a good point. However, I would also say that outside of a cold 5 or so day period, along with a decent winter event for some, January has pretty much been poo poo. Yep...looks like Jan poo poo'd itself. Sitting on 0.5" of snow. One of the warmest Jan's in the SE in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Neoproterozoic period 750million BC redux! Time to fire up the Komodo Joe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 CANCEL is the word on the street! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: That sound you hear is JB keeling over after seeing the mega torch weeklies. Weeklies say we bloom mid Feb. Weeklies have +0.2-0.5C for several weeks (highest 0.5C for any 7-day mean in that time frame) YIKES THAT'S WARM! Weeklies are bad for JB's icebox feb, but for the majority of the realistic forecasters, it isn't much different than what we've been seeing...in fact, it's more "normal". Yeah it's not a cold look, but it's not a "mega torch" look. I'll add, mean 46-day total snowfall is 2" for RDU, 3"ish for boarder counties. Last run? the mean for a majority of NC was <2", with wake at 1.5", border counties 2"....snowfall went UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 At this point any real cold air is going to start doing damage to the trees which are coming full force right now. If the peach trees follow suit and we get a hard freeze, bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 39 minutes ago, Jon said: Weeklies have +0.2-0.5C for several weeks (highest 0.5C for any 7-day mean in that time frame) YIKES THAT'S WARM! Weeklies are bad for JB's icebox feb, but for the majority of the realistic forecasters, it isn't much different than what we've been seeing...in fact, it's more "normal". Yeah it's not a cold look, but it's not a "mega torch" look. I'll add, mean 46-day total snowfall is 2" for RDU, 3"ish for boarder counties. Last run? the mean for a majority of NC was <2", with wake at 1.5", border counties 2"....snowfall went UP. Jon B. Hmmmmmmm .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Imma going to call him and ask!!! From what i gather this morning he has the towel in his hands now! He had good reasoning for his forecast, it could have just as easily went his way? just unlucky and looks like it's going to go the other way.... let's go fishing/Golfing................................ Golfing sounds great! Going to have a lot of chances over the next month or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Golfing sounds great! Going to have a lot of chances over the next month or two. Jb said, speaking of the Euro weeklies! It may all look different tomorrow, though I am rattled with the way this model is going Feb 14-27 Still the front part looks like it has merit We need to get together some time, so you can give me some golf lessons!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Jb said, speaking of the Euro weeklies! It may all look different tomorrow, though I am rattled with the way this model is going Feb 14-27 Still the front part looks like it has merit We need to get together some time, so you can give me some golf lessons!!! He's got one foot over the cliff and the other on a banana peel! I wish he'd cave and admit defeat, cause then it would get arctic cold !! Kind of feel bad for old dude! This is what happens when you ban Wilkes! Bad juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: He's got one foot over the cliff and the other on a banana peel! I wish he'd cave and admit defeat, cause then it would get arctic cold !! Kind of feel bad for old dude! This is what happens when you ban Wilkes! Bad juju Don't worry, he'll be back! Big Frosty needs to give us some fishing lessons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: He's got one foot over the cliff and the other on a banana peel! I wish he'd cave and admit defeat, cause then it would get arctic cold !! Kind of feel bad for old dude! This is what happens when you ban Wilkes! Bad juju I miss TClyde, he said we just needed patience that chances would be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I miss TClyde, he said we just needed patience that chances would be coming. Who new he meant Feb 2020! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Don't worry, he'll be back! Big Frosty needs to give us some fishing lessons. Mack's the fish king! I like golfing better, although I like both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: He's got one foot over the cliff and the other on a banana peel! I wish he'd cave and admit defeat, cause then it would get arctic cold !! Kind of feel bad for old dude! This is what happens when you ban Wilkes! Bad juju I think he has towel in hand!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 lol, Pack canceled the rest of winter AND next winter. I don't even think JI has done that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 So we go from saying the weeklies and EPS suck to riding the weeklies and eps. Ok I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: lol, Pack canceled the rest of winter AND next winter. I don't even think JI has done that! It's not cancelled...just pointing out that weak +enso with wQBO are warm and snowless. Maybe we get a freak QBO flip and then we will be partying like 03/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: It's not cancelled...just pointing out that weak +enso with wQBO are warm and snowless. Maybe we get a freak QBO flip and then we will be partying like 03/04. yeah just kidding...I had been thinking we would flip back over to -QBO next winter, but I agree with you that it now looks like we will still be in +QBO (on the backside of the +QBO phase). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: Weeklies have +0.2-0.5C for several weeks (highest 0.5C for any 7-day mean in that time frame) YIKES THAT'S WARM! Weeklies are bad for JB's icebox feb, but for the majority of the realistic forecasters, it isn't much different than what we've been seeing...in fact, it's more "normal". Yeah it's not a cold look, but it's not a "mega torch" look. I'll add, mean 46-day total snowfall is 2" for RDU, 3"ish for boarder counties. Last run? the mean for a majority of NC was <2", with wake at 1.5", border counties 2"....snowfall went UP. LOL....You said it's not much different then we have been seeing? Jan is +7 to +12 across the SE. They have no blocking, big AK low...seems warm to me. Even JB said they sucked. With that said the weeklies are useless...I didn't say I believe them, just commented on what they showed...torch pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL....You said it's not much different then we have been seeing? Jan is +7 to +12 across the SE. They have no blocking, big AK low...seems warm to me. Even JB said they sucked. With that said the weeklies are useless...I didn't say I believe them, just commented on what they showed...torch pattern. Been saying for years the weeklies beyond week 2 are useless. We can add the cfs to that list as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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