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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

A Gulf of Alaska low or trof can do it.  Often times you won't have an eastern US trof with a GOA low, but with a strong -NAO you sometimes can because the strong eastern Canada block forces lower heights to its southwest in the Eastern US which we had in late December 2001 and virtually no cold air was around because Canada was warm due to the strong GOA low flooding Canada with warm air.  Also you can have a trof in the east but the PV is on the opposite side of the pole so no real cold source in Canada.   

Thanks, snowgoose.  Imagine that happening today: if we were to finally get a strong NAO- signal only to still be warm, this forum would simply implode.

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Have what on me? Only 28 days in Feb that time stamp would be about 30% of the way into the month. I'm not God, I can't pin point the exact day, but the pattern I saw weeks ago would just be taking shape around that time period if not after. I stand my ground and continue to say nothing through the first week or so of Feb....better chances later.

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^^That storm on the 6th will need to be watched. If that setup was to verify, I would expect CAD to be stronger (..it usually is).

 

Dealing with the potential clipper Sunday night, remember this is still 5 days out. I would expect models to get a better handle ~Friday. Even then we're only going to be tracking a potential light event. Below, RAH mentions the GFS and Euro; but (again) I don't think any model has a good idea at this point.

From RAH:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Friday-Sunday Night: The synoptic pattern in this period is
characterized by deep ridging aloft over the Pacific Coast/
Intermountain West/Rockies and deep troughing aloft east of the
Mississippi. Long range guidance continues to indicate dry
conditions, below normal temperatures, and a brisk westerly breeze
during the afternoon hours Friday through Sunday in assoc/w a series
of shortwave passages /episodic cold advection/ in persistent
cyclonic flow aloft. The aforementioned synoptic pattern will break
down by early next week, in the wake of a final /more potent/
shortwave progged to dig S/SE through the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley (Sunday) and Carolinas (Sunday night). The 00Z GFS/ECMWF both
show light precipitation falling east of the mountains Sunday
eve/night when the strongest DPVA is expected. The 00Z GFS solution
is less amplified/more progressive and crosses the region Sunday
evening with very little (T-0.02") precipitation. In contrast to the
GFS, the 00Z ECMWF solution shows a more robust/amplified wave
crossing the region late Sunday night/early Monday morning with
twice as much precipitation (~0.05"). Given that this feature is
still 120+ hours out, will leave the previous forecast as-is (dry)
for Sunday night. If the 00Z GFS solution verified, a period of
light rain would be possible Sunday evening. If the 00Z ECMWF
solution verified, however, portions of central NC could see a
dusting of light snow late Sunday night.


Monday-Tuesday: Although heights aloft will begin to rise in the
wake of the aforementioned shortwave passage during the day Monday,
low-level cold advection will keep temps below normal with highs in
the low/mod 40s. Heights will continue to rise on Tue, with W/WNW
flow aloft becoming established over the Carolinas. Expect clear
skies and a warming trend with highs upper 40s to 50F. -Vincent

  

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1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Something to. Watch.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

I hope the Feb. 6-9 time frame pans out, this is ridiculous just looking at the extended and other than some cooler temps there is now moisture showing on the extended thru Feb. 3rd other than a little snow Sunday night Monday morning time frame and that's a maybe.

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31 minutes ago, MichaelJ said:

A 1003 followed 300 miles by a 1007 low? Not likely

Yeah.  Wasn't this a wound up storm over CAE at like 996 or something on yesterdays runs?  Too far out still to handle well I suspect.  Agree. We'll need CAD to make any fun in these parts.

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Well, everything still looks pretty boring for the foreseeable future.  GEFS still gives us a -NAO/-AO period for a few days in the long range then the greenland ridging starts significantly weakening at the end of the run.  Still doesn't look bad at such a long lead but was hoping that -NAO would hold on stronger....maybe it builds back up, I don't know. I think we'll need that for a good chance come February.  

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

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I don't see anything in the next 2 weeks that is worth getting excited about (or barely even worth watching for that matter).  The "super clipper" is just not the look we want to generate anything more than high clouds or token drizzle or a wet snowflake or two.  First, it enters the US in the Dakotas.  That's just too far east, especially in a progressive flow regime.  Second, it is too stretched out.  The Euro strengthens it as it dives SE, but not enough.  Third, at this lead, it is barely diving far enough south to put us even in the game for snow.  We need it going through southern SC at this point.  It'll likely end up tracking through NC.  Fourth, even if it does take a better track, the precip will probably start to fall (assuming there is any at all) during max heating.

Beyond that, I don't see what is worth watching around the 6th or 7th of Feb.  If you believe the GFS (either the 0z or 6z), you have virtually zero features in place or even all that close to being in place for a winter storm.  No good high pressure.  No antecedent cold air mass.  A cold front, which would deliver the cold air, working across the mountains during or after the precip.  The 0z GFS doesn't even get all that cold after the storm.  The 6z at least gets cold, but it's not until after the system.

0z GFS:

f300.gif

6z GFS:

f300 (1).gif

 

Beyond that, none of the ensembles that I can see are showing a wintry pattern.  The MJO is forecast to head into phases 1-2 and then either back into the COD (or even into phase 4-5 (more models are starting to show this possibility -- yuck)).  The AO is forecast to eventually dive, but so is the PNA (yuck), and the NAO is forecast to be positive (yuck).  Hopefully, everything is wrong and a winter pattern will start to emerge.

Sorry folks.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't see anything in the next 2 weeks that is worth getting excited about (or barely even worth watching for that matter).  The "super clipper" is just not the look we want to generate anything more than high clouds or token drizzle or a wet snowflake or two.  First, it enters the US in the Dakotas.  That's just too far east, especially in a progressive flow regime.  Second, it is too stretched out.  The Euro strengthens it as it dives SE, but not enough.  Third, at this lead, it is barely diving far enough south to put us even in the game for snow.  We need it going through southern SC at this point.  It'll likely end up tracking through NC.  Fourth, even if it does take a better track, the precip will probably start to fall (assuming there is any at all) during max heating.

Beyond that, I don't see what is worth watching around the 6th or 7th of Feb.  If you believe the GFS (either the 0z or 6z), you have virtually zero features in place or even all that close to being in place for a winter storm.  No good high pressure.  No antecedent cold air mass.  A cold front, which would deliver the cold air, working across the mountains during or after the precip.  The 0z GFS doesn't even get all that cold after the storm.  The 6z at least gets cold, but it's not until after the system.

0z GFS:

f300.gif

6z GFS:

f300 (1).gif

 

Beyond that, none of the ensembles that I can see are showing a wintry pattern.  The MJO is forecast to head into phases 1-2 and then either back into the COD (or even into phase 4-5 (more models are starting to show this possibility -- yuck)).  The AO is forecast to eventually dive, but so is the PNA (yuck), and the NAO is forecast to be positive (yuck).  Hopefully, everything is wrong and a winter pattern will start to emerge.

Sorry folks.

But, but, February is gonna be awesome after Valentine's Day , I have it on pretty good authority! :)

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Here's the GEFS for the same period as Pack's EPS map above (I think...although there is a possibility I ran it wrong).  Anyway, it looks similar.  850s are slightly warmer in the SE in the EPS and somewhat cooler SW on the EPS (which looks like is due primarily to a storm entering the west coast around San Francisco).  Either way, neither model shows a wintry pattern, and the general theme of much colder anomalies over the northern tier is similar:

gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_10.png

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JB is on the strat warm train calling for the cold.  If GEFS is right, it'll be cool, not sure it's cold enough for us, but probably for his guys up north. 

Reading HM on twitter, I've been trying to extrapolate and interpret his language and dialect.  Very interesting.  Then I got a headache and stopped.  It SEEMED like he was saying the strat effect was moving down into the troposphere.  I could be completely wrong on that.  Anybody translate?  

I'm really reaching here for some blocking.  Strat warm, SOI crash, left side COD MJO, something! Give us some blocking in February!! 

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The GEFS shows some interesting things.  Just not a winter weather pattern for the SE.  You have a nice big block over AK.  That's awesome.  It supports cross-polar flow, as indicated by the green arrow.  That means, Canada is likely to be cold.  Yay.  It also shows, because of lack of blocking in the NAO domain, no mechanism to press the PV far enough south to give us appreciable cold weather.  It looks normal here, except over Phil's house, where it looks slightly warm.  You also have a fast Pac flow, indicated by the tightly packed height lines (see red oval).  The result should be near normal temps with occasional light rain/clouds.

IMG_4023.thumb.PNG.751d7b73a04c75018e81730abf489fec.PNG

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17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea but Franklin says the eps sucks and ya'll claim Gefs rules now. So who's your money on?

I feel the euro is not as good as it once was. It wentry downhill in 2011 after their so called upgrade. In 2011 it missed badly on two storms and in our area of the northern hemisphere has been an average model.

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