CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro has big AO/AK block, Greenland block with 50/50 and we are still a furnace. Some winters it just wants to be warm... Not buying it.....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not buying it.....yet. It seems were breaking new ground this winter I don't think I've ever heard of trapping the heat with high-level blocking in WinterWinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not buying it.....yet. Not buying the blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not buying the blocking? Not buying the warmth with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 38 minutes ago, WarmNose said: If it ain't coming from up out of the gulf, I ain't interested..on to March There is always December to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not buying it.....yet. Ride the gefs, till the wheels fall off! If EPS right, winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ride the gefs, till the wheels fall off! If EPS right, winter cancel! Hey mister. Your wheel is looking a little wobbly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not buying the warmth with blocking. A block blocks whatever is behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, jburns said: A block blocks whatever is behind it. That's true, but high lattitude blocking in the north atlantic is rarely associated with warmth in the east. It has happened, but it's not a common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 FWIW - JB, still confident about Feb-March cold that holds in the east. He said may be snow in these parts around day 8 (Possibly)? This is about as good of an ensemble run at 500 mb and 850 mb this far out. The time uncertainty limits what a model can see, but I see no reason to rout out the cold in Canada now, as the opposite of the western trough pattern that we have seen is a hallmark of this run, with a ridge in the West. The markers we have set up for the February/March idea have been reached, and we have maintained all along that this winter would be strongest in the East later in the winter. The coldest air is now on our side of the pole overall and I believe the worst of winter is yet to come from the Mississippi eastward, with Texas still a battleground and the northern Plains likely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: FWIW - JB, still confident about Feb-March cold that holds in the east. He said may be snow in these parts around day 8 (Possibly)? This is about as good of an ensemble run at 500 mb and 850 mb this far out. The time uncertainty limits what a model can see, but I see no reason to rout out the cold in Canada now, as the opposite of the western trough pattern that we have seen is a hallmark of this run, with a ridge in the West. The markers we have set up for the February/March idea have been reached, and we have maintained all along that this winter would be strongest in the East later in the winter. The coldest air is now on our side of the pole overall and I believe the worst of winter is yet to come from the Mississippi eastward, with Texas still a battleground and the northern Plains likely cold. I hope his points and ideas prove true to salvage what's left of winter. The Op has been increasingly warmer and less amplified in the LR. Might be a blip or onto something. The clipper or potential clipper as example. Looked at 500mb and each run from yesterday to today at 18z each run seemed less amped and further east. The it warms up and rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 NC/TN mountains look to finish out the winter strong. Models hinting at a lot of northwest flow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The pattern relaxes briefly after this weekend trough lifts out and the northern branch retreats to the border. After this the EPO dump is coming with plenty of cold coming east and some hints of possible Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Everything is going as planned with my forecast. I told everyone to skip several weeks including at least the first week of Feb. Gotta have the cold in place first.. Should see some crazy solutions of warm to winter weather in Feb...rather sharply...possible big east coast storm. Check back in 10 days we are getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Timothy Clyde said: Everything is going as planned with my forecast. I told everyone to skip several weeks including at least the first week of Feb. Gotta have the cold in place first.. Should see some crazy solutions of warm to winter weather in Feb...rather sharply...possible big east coast storm. Check back in 10 days we are getting closer. You said no cold air until mid February. Forecast bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Everything is going as planned with my forecast. I told everyone to skip several weeks including at least the first week of Feb. Gotta have the cold in place first.. Should see some crazy solutions of warm to winter weather in Feb...rather sharply...possible big east coast storm. Check back in 10 days we are getting closer. No one likes you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The pattern relaxes briefly after this weekend trough lifts out and the northern branch retreats to the border. After this the EPO dump is coming with plenty of cold coming east and some hints of possible Atlantic blocking. We havnt seen this before at all this winter!? This time it's for real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: You said no cold air until mid February. Forecast bust. Unless the high is 35 and below I don't consider it cold air. Looks seasonally cool after mid 70s we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Say all the names you want but I care more about accuracy. I like our chances later on but you have to wait a few weeks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We havnt seen this before at all this winter!? This time it's for real! Hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Everything is going as planned with my forecast. I told everyone to skip several weeks including at least the first week of Feb. Gotta have the cold in place first.. Should see some crazy solutions of warm to winter weather in Feb...rather sharply...possible big east coast storm. Check back in 10 days we are getting closer. Well thats great for people on the east coast. How do you think the south is looking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Say all the names you want but I care more about accuracy. I like our chances later on but you have to wait a few weeks guys. I care about a thread free from crap, so keep your "discussion" in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I care about a thread free from crap, so keep your "discussion" in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Several members had something around this timeframe. Has ColdRains lakes low so it must be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Several members had something around this timeframe. Has ColdRains lakes low so it must be legit. If I'm looking at the timestamps right, this is the same storm the the 6z OP GFS run had to, with a bit of tweaking in the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Days 11+ look very active...with ridge axis off the coast and active NS it makes sense. Question is.... there enough Greenland blocking for us fools in the south. 50/50 looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Actually several hits with a few in the Deep South like this. Would make the ATL to GSP folks happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Last time the heart of January was this snowless east of the Mississippi was Jan 2010. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 50 minutes ago, packbacker said: Actually several hits with a few in the Deep South like this. Would make the ATL to GSP folks happy... That's what I'm talking about! Finally a clown map to ease the withdrawals. I'm going to take this map verbatim and post to my Facebook! Brb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Several members had something around this timeframe. Has ColdRains lakes low so it must be legit. Yes. If it has a Lakes Low or a rapidly eastward moving high pressure, it's most likely the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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