mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Epic dry slot sliding up the East coast right now. A thing of beauty This was the first comma head precip I've had in years, too bad it's 30 degrees too warm !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12z GFS Para hours 174 and 360 have my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: 12z GFS Para hours 174 and 360 have my attention 360 is a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 hours ago, griteater said: That's a classic throwback post from Cheez right there! Dr. No dagger post! Euro does get precip up to Jacksonville this run with a sfc low running thru S FL into the N Bahamas, lol. FYI, the GFS Ens member with the big storm (e16) drops the northern stream wave due south, deep into Texas as opposed to AR/LA. Some others aren't that far west, but do sharpen the wave over the SE and have the gulf low. Is there a link to see the ensemble member ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 hours ago, packbacker said: GEFS still hell bent on putting on a fairly nice wintery Feb/nina pattern. Yeah, I noticed it is pretty consistent in wanting to make that ridge bridge into a -AO/-NAO down the line. Weeklies hinted at in week 3/4 if I'm not mistaken. If we can just get a week or 2 with that in Feb I'll be happy. Big if. I like that we do good in Feb with Grit's analogs, we've got the PV displacement, and a SOI crash. Perhaps we get fortunate with it for a brief time. Waiting on something to track....patiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 18Z GFS ! Lol the eternal optimism on the other board, is hilarious!! Over there it's like they are 3 days away from a March 93 redux. Here we are like , meh! It's like we are looking at 2 completely different sets of models!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18Z GFS ! Lol the eternal optimism on the other board, is hilarious!! Over there it's like they are 3 days away from a March 93 redux. Here we are like , meh! It's like we are looking at 2 completely different sets of models!? Its solution isn't too far away from a Gulf storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 To me that energy is way too far East. Even if the two streams did phase, which it doesn't look that close, it would be a real late bloomer. What am I missing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18Z GFS ! Lol the eternal optimism on the other board, is hilarious!! Over there it's like they are 3 days away from a March 93 redux. Here we are like , meh! It's like we are looking at 2 completely different sets of models!? Which other board? The MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, JoshM said: Without a HP up north, I'm nervous about any events, regardless of 850s. Rightly so 38 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: To me that energy is way too far East. Even if the two streams did phase, which it doesn't look that close, it would be a real late bloomer. What am I missing there? You're not missing anything. The northern stream would need to dig more to the southwest to give us a shot. 12z Euro members and 18z GFS members are skimpy on that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Which other board? The MA? southernwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Maybe a -nao according to the ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, shahroz98 said: Is there a link to see the ensemble member ? Free Sites: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html (18z run - change URL for other runs) http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html (18z run - change URL for other runs) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ Paid Sites: WxBell, AmericanWx Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 How did the Craplies turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How did the Craplies turn out? Weeks 6-8, are off the chain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Weeks 6-8, are off the chain! Haha Warm April snow FTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: How did the Craplies turn out? In all seriousness , the MA crew seems to really like the new weeklies! That probably means we are screwed down here!! They said they basically keep the eastern trough look the whole run, once it sets up ! I'm all tingly inside, until ATLbacker provides his torchy spin on them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: In all seriousness , the MA crew seems to really like the new weeklies! That probably means we are screwed down here!! They said they basically keep the eastern trough look the whole run, once it sets up ! I'm all tingly inside, until ATLbacker provides his torchy spin on them! I don't have to spin...weeklies been calling for an ice age all winter. Look at how warm it's been...only getting warmer from here on out. Wouldn't be surprised to see 80's in Feb....actually it would be surprising if we don't reach the 80's in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 33 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: In all seriousness , the MA crew seems to really like the new weeklies! That probably means we are screwed down here!! They said they basically keep the eastern trough look the whole run, once it sets up ! I'm all tingly inside, until ATLbacker provides his torchy spin on them! Eastern trough sounds pretty good. We can start with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't have to spin...weeklies been calling for an ice age all winter. Look at how warm it's been...only getting warmer from here on out. Wouldn't be surprised to see 80's in Feb....actually it would be surprising if we don't reach the 80's in Feb. and if this isn't the warmest model it's probably underdone.. Edit: this is our 14 day avg sorry I'm in a daze from all of this heat.. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Something is wrong with the weeklies this winter...they been stuck on showing cold/wintery pattern day 15+ for the most of this winter. They been really unusable...CFS has been solid, cansips hit Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Something is wrong with the weeklies this winter...they been stuck on showing cold/wintery pattern day 15+ for the most of this winter. They been really unusable...CFS has been solid, cansips hit Jan. I'm not sure they're ever really good. 2 winters ago they continually tried breaking down the raging -EPO and were consistently wrong. Today despite showing a trof in the east I believe they were insanely warm. That's not terribly unusual but it's an odd feature that often times the temp departures don't match the height anomalies. Outside of the 01-02 winter I'm not sure I've ever seen trofing in place for any lengthy stretch with above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 How's the 0z GFS looking? Meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 47 minutes ago, CaryWx said: How's the 0z GFS looking? Meh? Not any huge differences from 18z, Clipper coming thru Sunday into Monday is the only thing remotely interesting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Bed time, Maybe a better run tomorrow? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 0z GFS is good laying down the groundwork for mid Feb. MTNS are absolutely hammered in upslope, and this particular run gives VA the super clipper. Some spillage for northern NC. Clipper bares watching...2-4" would be a nice surprise but doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Not far off from a big dog along the East Coast 2nd week of Feb, slides north-east of FL into Newfoundland 969mb. Decent blizzard for some in New England. Not sure if it will be the one but getting close to my mid Feb thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Do believe the new pattern will favor a top down of all the east coast states....nothing like the recent winter storm will be possible in this upcoming pattern IMO. I don't like your chances the further south-west you go from Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: I don't have to spin...weeklies been calling for an ice age all winter. Look at how warm it's been...only getting warmer from here on out. Wouldn't be surprised to see 80's in Feb....actually it would be surprising if we don't reach the 80's in Feb. Man, pack, as mild as it has felt here, you and I have really escaped pretty lightly compared to the rest. Do you think it has been the CADs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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