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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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57 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I downloaded some data form NCDC.  I will have to search through it myself but I have already come across a doozy: Jan 1977.  Mean temp was 26.6 F!!!  The highest temp from that month was only 52F.  It got down to -1 F one night.  All thirty one days had lows at or below freezing.  Humorously they only got 2.1 inches of snow.  What in the world was going on in the SE that year?  Anyone on here remember?

I was living in South Bend, IN for the blizzard of the century then - used my 2nd story window as door for days b/c of the drifts; my folks in JAX and my now mother-in-law in Lakeland (FL) had flurries. It was cold!

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I downloaded some data form NCDC.  I will have to search through it myself but I have already come across a doozy: Jan 1977.  Mean temp was 26.6 F!!!  The highest temp from that month was only 52F.  It got down to -1 F one night.  All thirty one days had lows at or below freezing.  Humorously they only got 2.1 inches of snow.  What in the world was going on in the SE that year?  Anyone on here remember?

3

Winter.

I was teaching in Floyd, VA.  We went back to school for one day after Christmas and didn't return until the first week in Feb.

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44 minutes ago, jburns said:

Winter.

I was teaching in Floyd, VA.  We went back to school for one day after Christmas and didn't return until the first week in Feb.

Incredible.  I bet your students were loving it until they had to make it up in the summer.

Do you remember any of the weather forecasters giving any explanations for the event back then?  I am assuming that the AO/NAO/PDO and all that stuff was virtually unknown outside of professional Met circles.

If that month were to happen today, it would break this forum, in the best possible way.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Incredible.  I bet your students were loving it until they had to make it up in the summer.

Do you remember any of the weather forecasters giving any explanations for the event back then?  I am assuming that the AO/NAO/PDO and all that stuff was virtually unknown outside of professional Met circles.

If that month were to happen today, it would break this forum, in the best possible way.

 

At the time that was no law in VA that limited school for students to 5 days a week that would only allow you to go on Sat if there was a day off during the week.  We went six days a week from early Feb to mid-June. And to make matters worse, our lovely superintendent decided that Saturdays would be a full day. It was not fun.  He also endeared himself to the faculty by refusing to call off school until 6:00 am every freaking day in Jan.  Snow up to our ass, high wind and zero degrees and he would wait until 6 am. Everyone knew we couldn't begin to go but still felt like we had to set an alarm for 6 am.  UGH.

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I downloaded some data form NCDC.  I will have to search through it myself but I have already come across a doozy: Jan 1977.  Mean temp was 26.6 F!!!  The highest temp from that month was only 52F.  It got down to -1 F one night.  All thirty one days had lows at or below freezing.  Humorously they only got 2.1 inches of snow.  What in the world was going on in the SE that year?  Anyone on here remember?

I remember it. I was a kid, but old enough to be outside playing most of every day. All the ponds and lakes froze solid. I recall there were people ice skating on Lake Gaston.

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

At the time that was no law in VA that limited school for students to 5 days a week that would only allow you to go on Sat if there was a day off during the week.  We went six days a week from early Feb to mid-June. And to make matters worse, our lovely superintendent decided that Saturdays would be a full day. It was not fun.  He also endeared himself to the faculty by refusing to call off school until 6:00 am every freaking day in Jan.  Snow up to our ass, high wind and zero degrees and he would wait until 6 am. Everyone knew we couldn't begin to go but still felt like we had to set an alarm for 6 am.  UGH.

So you and my wife teach/taught at the same school? LOL (but it's true)

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12 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

I starting to think winter is cancelled spring will come early with a high risk severe threat I don't think we see much of any more snow in the south I might be wrong but it's the feeling I'm getting watching these models lately. 

The snow will come when everyone finally gives up on it.  We are all close to that now.  

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15 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

I starting to think winter is cancelled spring will come early with a high risk severe threat I don't think we see much of any more snow in the south I might be wrong but it's the feeling I'm getting watching these models lately. 

With all due respect - and I mean this sincerely - how about a little science/data?

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8 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

With all due respect - and I mean this sincerely - how about a little science/data?

I'm thinking a good start would be the 10 days in a row of 70+ degree high temps in ATL in the heart and coldest part of winter, doesn't scream great winter or cold and snowy!? The +10 above avg a lot will finish above January ! The 4 days out of 31 that were below normal. Nothing is really changing much on the models, the cold is moderating on the models for the next 2 weeks plus! The worst January severe/ tornado outbreak, almost ever. Tulips are blooming, buds are swelling, Portland OR, has had more snow than BOS , NYC, and DCA combined! Sometimes, it just not a good winter, this is one! Might as well be 2012, I got more snow that year by accident, than this whole winter! :(

the bathtub just never sloshed our way. Maybe next year, our Nino will be the ticket! Solar minimums , SOI, and Eurasia may save us next winter!

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It would really be extraordinary if we had no further shots at winter weather the rest of this year.  It may feel like winter is over, but the odds are against that being the case.  Statistically speaking, we should see another threat or two.  Even blind luck should offer us at least one more shot.  Thinking and feeling winter is over no more makes it so than hope and optimism creates a snowstorm.

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from Kocin about the 1899 Feb blizzard:

much of the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic and Gulf states were  experiencing  unseasonably mild conditions. Temperatures  soared to 63°F (lrC) at Richmond Virginia, and 72°F (22°C) at Raleigh, North Carolina on the fourth, and to 81°F (27°C) at Savannah Geor­gia on the fifth.

Check the temps and precip out after that.

In other words  -  where's the data? Winter over? Yes in Gainesville, FL.  300 miles north of here? Hardly I suspect.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It would really be extraordinary if we had no further shots at winter weather the rest of this year.  It may feel like winter is over, but the odds are against that being the case.  Statistically speaking, we should see another threat or two.  Even blind luck should offer us at least one more shot.  Thinking and feeling winter is over no more makes it so than hope and optimism creates a snowstorm.

Yeah, I've had about 3 feet of wishing snow this year! The real problem I see, is that the warmth covered the entire plains and east coast, therefore , snowcover is almost non existent, in the whole country , East of the Rockies. It's almost worse than starting from scratch, unless one of this pretty green blobs of cold just plop right on us from those pretty maps you and pack post, then where is the cold coming from? It doesn't seem to drop down from AK, that all gets shunted to the West coast. Fighting an uphill battle, the patterns look great 10-15 days out and then go poof, sun angle is getting stronger, days are getting longer, we have a 20 page + severe thread, in mid-late January!!? We need to just let it go and fire up the fishing and gardening thread!! But wait, the CMC was banging! Lord help us!

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

from Kocin about the 1899 Feb blizzard:

much

 

of the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic and Gulf states were  experiencing  unseasonably mild conditions.

 

Temperatures  soared to 63°F (lrC) at Richmond Virginia, and 72°F (22°C) at Raleigh, North Carolina on the fourth, and to 81°F (27°C) at Savannah  Geor­

 

gia on the fifth.

Check the temps and precip out after that.

In other words  -  where's the data? Winter over? Yes in Gainesville, FL.  300 miles north of here? Hardly I suspect.

The first ever recorded JB bathtub slosh effect, in effect! Atleast JBuns got to see the slosh theory work once! :)

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm thinking a good start would be the 10 days in a row of 70+ degree high temps in ATL in the heart and coldest part of winter, doesn't scream great winter or cold and snowy!? The +10 above avg a lot will finish above January ! The 4 days out of 31 that were below normal. Nothing is really changing much on the models, the cold is moderating on the models for the next 2 weeks plus! The worst January severe/ tornado outbreak, almost ever. Tulips are blooming, buds are swelling, Portland OR, has had more snow than BOS , NYC, and DCA combined! Sometimes, it just not a good winter, this is one! Might as well be 2012, I got more snow that year by accident, than this whole winter! :(

the bathtub just never sloshed our way. Maybe next year, our Nino will be the ticket! Solar minimums , SOI, and Eurasia may save us next winter!

Mack, there's still a little water in the tub! Just hang on a few more weeks. We'll be gold!! Then Carp season...............

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

+1 :jerry:  Little touch of grey!!!

Must be getting early clocks are running late
Paint by number morning sky looks so phony
Dawn is breaking everywhere
Light a candle curse the glare
Draw the curtains I don't care 'cause it's alright

I will get by I will get by
I will get by I will survive

I see you've got your fist out say your piece and get out
Yes I get the gist of it but it's alright
Sorry that you feel that way the only there is to say
Every silver lining's got a touch of grey

I will get by I will get by I will get by I will survive

It's a lesson to me the Ables and the Bakers and the C's
The ABC's we all must face and try to keep a little grace

It's a lesson to me the deltas and the east and the freeze
The ABC's we all think of try to win a little love

I know the rent is in arrears the dog has not been fed in years
It's even worse than it appears but it's alright
Cow's giving kerosene, kid can't read at seventeen
The words he knows are all obscene but it's alright

I will get by I will get by I will get by I will survive

The shoe is on the hand that fits, there's really nothing much to it
Whistle through your teeth and spit 'cause it's alright
Oh well a touch of grey kinda suits you anyway
And that was all I had to say and it's alright

I will get by I will get by I will get by I will survive

We will get by we will get by we will get by we will survive
We will get by we will get by we will get by we will survive

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8 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Must be getting early clocks are running late
Paint by number morning sky looks so phony
Dawn is breaking everywhere
Light a candle curse the glare
Draw the curtains I don't care 'cause it's alright

I will get by I will get by
I will get by I will survive

I see you've got your fist out say your piece and get out
Yes I get the gist of it but it's alright
Sorry that you feel that way the only there is to say
Every silver lining's got a touch of grey

I will get by I will get by I will get by I will survive

It's a lesson to me the Ables and the Bakers and the C's
The ABC's we all must face and try to keep a little grace

It's a lesson to me the deltas and the east and the freeze
The ABC's we all think of try to win a little love

I know the rent is in arrears the dog has not been fed in years
It's even worse than it appears but it's alright
Cow's giving kerosene, kid can't read at seventeen
The words he knows are all obscene but it's alright

I will get by I will get by I will get by I will survive

The shoe is on the hand that fits, there's really nothing much to it
Whistle through your teeth and spit 'cause it's alright
Oh well a touch of grey kinda suits you anyway
And that was all I had to say and it's alright

I will get by I will get by I will get by I will survive

We will get by we will get by we will get by we will survive
We will get by we will get by we will get by we will survive

Good one! Doc.............;)  Every model run got a touch of grey

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1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

The weeklies are sh**. Not even a hint at cold air. oh well. I saw my backend snowflurry a couple of weeks ago. Should suffice. Plus I heard March looked promising! Can you say "Blizzard of '93 repeat"!! With all this snow cover around us it should be a lock!!

They may turn around this week and look good? Possible!!! 

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