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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Sadly the GEFS still shows potential days 9-11, to bad the EPS is so different.  Though, the quicker return to warmth on the EPS sounds nice too.  Can't lose really.

Day 11 plotted against past Feb nina snow events.

Screen Shot 2017-01-21 at 7.55.19 PM.png

Mr. Backer, for the less experienced among us, can you explain the plot on the right?  I'm not sure what it means to plot "Day 11 against past nina snow events".

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17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Mr. Backer, for the less experienced among us, can you explain the plot on the right?  I'm not sure what it means to plot "Day 11 against past nina snow events".

That's a 5h anomaly plot of many Feb Nina snow events that impacted RDU 1-2 days prior.  Kind of gives an idea on what a potential setup may look like.  

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

LOL...I am in haze from all this warmth.  Just counting the days to pre-emergent time.  

Put your money where your mouth is. Had to put mine out today. Clover, wild onion, chickweed coming on strong. Unbeleivable and had some frost couple mornings ago. Oh well, we hit climo and the way I see it we've got 2 back to back crappy winter patterns out of the way so odds are getting stacked in our favor next 1 to 3 years we are gonna get a good one.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

So the Euro trended less amplified with the ridge and farther east with the trough...that's a losing combination...and the 18z GFS joined it.  That has to reverse in order for us to have a shot here

Wrap it up! Glad we got our " wintry" event over with!! We had 4 days of below normal days, sandwiched between 90-120 days of toast! This winter will be +10, DJF! Winning!

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23 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

My understanding is that the westward phase is hostile to the formation of high-level blocking so that certainly doesn't help with the NAO/AO.

There have been a number of +QBO winters with -AO/-NAO...2010-2011 for one.  Strongest QBO correlation I've seen for -AO/-NAO is when the QBO is on the front end of the negative cycle in concert with a minimum in the solar cycle....otherwise, the QBO to AO/NAO correlations aren't very strong.

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I read the LC update for the medium long range.  Somewhat vague.  After 29 Jan is the window.  Stay tuned is what he said. We knew that so nothing overly positive or negative.  

"The forecast into February is troubling for two reasons. One is that most of the numerical models have not consistently figured out the ejection of tropical moisture and forcing from the Maritime Continent, which is concurrent with an extremely high-velocity polar jet stream. Two, the volatile nature of temperature banding in North America is not being addressed by these same predictive schemes. Cold gives way to warm and vice versa, and this pattern started before Thanksgiving 2016. Put these two quandaries together, and you have lowered confidence in the outcome for temperatures and prediction next month.

Here is what we do know. The hue and cry over La Nina has given way to the realization that ENSO is as neutral as can be. The Madden-Julian Oscillation continues to each ever slowly eastward, now resting in chaotic fashion over the Maritime Continent and western equatorial Pacific Ocean. As long as the MJO is percolating and feeding both the polar and subtropical jet streams, apparent weather in North America will be mostly cold, and quite often stormy. Snow cover is most dense through northern/central Eurasia but is at near normal levels in Canada and the U.S. The January Thaw influence in reducing the continental snowpack has so far been fairly limited, especially over the West Coast and Intermountain Region.

Put these trends together, and the weather map for February 2017 looks similar to December, but with the cold dome set a bit more to the south and east. The colder transition occurring during the new week should last until the first day or so of the new month, so January mean temperature anomalies will not look as warm as is the case between January 1 - 20. Precipitation is again a tough call, if only because of the tendency for systems to avoid the West Coast and dig into Baja California before ejecting. In a -EPO scenario, the disturbances would eject through Texas, pass through the Deep South, and ride along the Atlantic shoreline. That more suppressed south and east trajectory will favor more snow at lower latitudes, probably affording the Eastern Seaboard cities their first chance at significant snowfall. The potential for such an event is sooner than you might think.

If you accept the CFS series depiction of the 500MB flow, but avoid the warm bias of the 2m temperature anomaly forecast, then the skew of a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central, East alignment is evident. Alaskan blocking signatures occurring in tandem with -EPO or +PNA styled ridging can help to deliver far-flung cold intrusions that can reach Mexico and Florida. A potential for a deep closed 500MB low in western Ontario also allows for an active storm track with the cold air. I can see the possibility for the Old South and Mid-Atlantic states falling under a mild/moist regime around February 4 - 7 with a brief resumption of a subtropical high across Cuba and the Bahamas. But another hammer of cold event should return soon after. The western states, much of the time under ridging, may finally take on a milder and drier pattern. This after a major assault of storminess and cold from disturbances digging south from Alaska."

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Cooler than 18Z? If so, that's a baby step in the right direction ....

Not that I can see.  Looks warmer on the op.  I cycled through the previous runs and the theme is warmer and less amplified.  It's ugly to close out January.

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