mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 All this rain is going to wash away my snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Good and bad news. Pattern is really favoring a colder outlook with clipper systems and n-w flow snow for the southern Appalachian mountains. It is possible a light to moderate super clipper could occur but we won't know that until very close to the event. The bad, well, we are really washing things out this as we draw January to a close with a significant severe weather maker across the South. I believe the problem will be lack of moisture with the cold air at night. I still very much rule out late Jan and early Feb. If we can score a coop, with moisture, I still expect in to be mid Feb or after. Not the first week of the month. No way. Give it up Wilkes..... You said the cold would not come back until the 3rd week of Feb. Now, unless something miraculous happens, you will have sorely missed that call. You can't start back-tracking now by claiming you were talking about snowfall. Be man enough to eat some crow and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Be man enough to eat some crow snow and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: All this rain is going to wash away my snowpack! Don't worry it will be back before you realize it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, we've almost gained and hour of daylight since the winter solstice! And the sun angle is basically the same as September! Winter cancel Not even remotely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: That is really what an old fashioned Southern snow used to look like!!! And there's a wedge sig out in front! She's a beaut Clark IF that verified and that system came on in here, it would almost be impossible for it to be rain over a very large part of the Carolinas and GA and probably much of AL and Miss too. That hp is in a very nice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, jshetley said: Not even remotely close. Not according to Clueless in Carrollton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not according to Clueless in Carrollton The window for snow in SC/GA is pretty small. The in depth climo more or less shows you its 1/5-2/15 or so. After that it starts to become much harder. The numbers may show many big events have occurred from 2/16-3/22 or so, but in general those are spaced apart by many years with the daily records showing a marked drop off in that period. I lived in OK for awhile and while they are pretty far south too, they are way more likely to snow from 11/25-1/5 which seems extraordinarily rare in the SE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not according to Clueless in Carrollton Hey. No name calling ! And btw the sun angle right now is equivalent to that of around November 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The window for snow in SC/GA is pretty small. The in depth climo more or less shows you its 1/5-2/15 or so. After that it starts to become much harder. The numbers may show many big events have occurred from 2/16-3/22 or so, but in general those are spaced apart by many years with the daily records showing a marked drop off in that period. I lived in OK for awhile and while they are pretty far south too, they are way more likely to snow from 11/25-1/5 which seems extraordinarily rare in the SE U.S. Yeah in my entire life of living in GA, it seems that after Feb 15 the chances for wintry precip go down dramatically. Of course on the rare occasion that we do get wintry precip after Feb 15, it is often significant like March 93. People tend to remember all the big events we had in late Feb and March and forget that those events happen so rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The window for snow in SC/GA is pretty small. The in depth climo more or less shows you its 1/5-2/15 or so. After that it starts to become much harder. The numbers may show many big events have occurred from 2/16-3/22 or so, but in general those are spaced apart by many years with the daily records showing a marked drop off in that period. I lived in OK for awhile and while they are pretty far south too, they are way more likely to snow from 11/25-1/5 which seems extraordinarily rare in the SE U.S. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The window for snow in SC/GA is pretty small. The in depth climo more or less shows you its 1/5-2/15 or so. After that it starts to become much harder. The numbers may show many big events have occurred from 2/16-3/22 or so, but in general those are spaced apart by many years with the daily records showing a marked drop off in that period. I lived in OK for awhile and while they are pretty far south too, they are way more likely to snow from 11/25-1/5 which seems extraordinarily rare in the SE U.S. Agreed! The biggest March snow I have ever seen, in all my life, was the March 1st 2009 bowling ball! 8" here S of 85, it was great! And it had rained a ton the night before and up until about Midday! Then switch to snow! Paste bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Agreed! The biggest March snow I have ever seen, in all my life, was the March 1st 2009 bowling ball! 8" here S of 85, it was great! And it had rained a ton the night before and up until about Midday! Then switch to snow! Paste bomb! That was a horrible storm here. It snowed 5 inches and 1/2" accumulated. I hate daytime March snows ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That was a horrible storm here. It snowed 5 inches and 1/2" accumulated. I hate daytime March snows ! Was that the event where 2 people were killed by CG lightning strikes in ATL. I seem to remember hearing about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Was that the event where 2 people were killed by CG lightning strikes in ATL. I seem to remember hearing about that. I'm not sure but I know we had a lot of thundersnow with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just got a chance to review some of the model data from today. Happy Hour GFS was the best. 12z wasn't bad either. I love the PV in southeast Canada. I love the big block in the GOA. There isn't really much fantasy snow, but there's so much energy, if we keep getting the general 500mb look that's being depicted, we'll start to see some soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Just got a chance to review some of the model data from today. Happy Hour GFS was the best. 12z wasn't bad either. I love the PV in southeast Canada. I love the big block in the GOA. There isn't really much fantasy snow, but there's so much energy, if we keep getting the general 500mb look that's being depicted, we'll start to see some soon. Been out drinking again! Welcome back, positive Cold_Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Just got a chance to review some of the model data from today. Happy Hour GFS was the best. 12z wasn't bad either. I love the PV in southeast Canada. I love the big block in the GOA. There isn't really much fantasy snow, but there's so much energy, if we keep getting the general 500mb look that's being depicted, we'll start to see some soon. Yep...not a lot of fantasy snow to go around but GFS throwing out fantasy cold at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Was that the event where 2 people were killed by CG lightning strikes in ATL. I seem to remember hearing about that. Not sure about that, but remember it being modeled pretty far out, 7+ days! And cutoffs from a lot to a little, was sharp! Jim Cantore was in CLT, and got a live shot of some thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Been out drinking again! Welcome back, positive Cold_Rain! Ha at least until Monday night when the next Weeklies are released! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12z GFS para had snow sliding down the Texas panhandle into San Antonio on Feb 3rd...smh I guess my backend flurries south of 85 on Jan 7th will have to suffice for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 55 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...not a lot of fantasy snow to go around but GFS throwing out fantasy cold at least. I always have a hard time translating 850 maps to surface temps - what is this showing in terms of temps below? I understand the temp gradients aspect. (And a quick nice lesson on the translation from 850 to approx surface would be most appreciated; seems to me you add 10 to 15, but not in winter?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I always have a hard time translating 850 maps to surface temps - what is this showing in terms of temps below? I understand the temp gradients aspect. (And a quick nice lesson on the translation from 850 to approx surface would be most appreciated; seems to me you add 10 to 15, but not in winter?). On a totally sunny day in winter you may add 10-12 and 15 in summer. Other major factors exist though, strong warm or cold advection changes things. Significant recent rains or drought can cause temps to end up a bit lower and higher too then the usual. Strong winds can also allow you to mix down from closer to 800mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: On a totally sunny day in winter you may add 10-12 and 15 in summer. Other major factors exist though, strong warm or cold advection changes things. Significant recent rains or drought can cause temps to end up a bit lower and higher too then the usual. Strong winds can also allow you to mix down from closer to 800mb Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 0z GFS = pretty cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 0z GFS = pretty cold and dry Below normal with temps from Jan 27 thru the end of the run at Feb 6...it held on to the big AK ridge thru to the end. Canadian run was decent. Get the eastern trough to back up to the west just a bit and we'll have a chance or 2 at a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 From the 6z GFS - 953mb low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 33 minutes ago, ajr said: From the 6z GFS - 953mb low? hopefully this came up thru the southeast on Feb. 1st and 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just a little difference in the 10-15 between the GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, packbacker said: Just a little difference in the 10-15 between the GEFS and EPS. Would be great to have a snowstorm on Super Bowl Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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