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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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Well sounds like the Weeklies kinda went neutral to meh last night.  CFS still looks pretty good through February.  Wonder if it'll keep this look through the end of next week/end of month.  

Still think things won't be terrible through the month, just going to have depend on great timing, as usual I guess. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png

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Looking at the 6z gefs maps posted above it reminds me of something Larry pointed out yesterday. At 500mb you need those lines over your back yard with some south orientation not due west or NW. South of west is how you score winter weather. What he was explaining to someone is if you keep studying the 500mb maps youll notice the trough axis needs to be just a tick to your west so you can get some sw flow. This probably is a net result of how/where the ridge sets up in the pac. Anyway Ive noticed and he's pointed out 2 trends seem to be showing up. 1st is the NW flow /clipper parade with ns stream energy which is a bonus for nwfs folks, but the next fertile ground is shapping up to be the coastal plain areas espeacilly NC. reason is is the trough/ 500mb bareley gets them in a southwest flow. This would promote one of these clippers/ns having time for a late phase off the SE atlantic coast as oppossed to gom. Most poster on here need a eastern GOM phase/interaction with the 2 streams to score. So food for thought when going forward is to see exactly where the axis on 500mb is setting up on ensembels and that will be the biggest clue who has the window of opportunity coming up. 

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The last 2 GFS Para runs were decent (18z and 00z).  They both have a couple of decent northern stream waves drop down out of central Canada...then kick out a wave from the SW states toward the end of the run in concert with a cold high to the north...with a suppressed low in the gulf.

Here's the second of the 2 northern stream waves on the 00z Para

wbvrk5.gif

The eastern trough and western ridge axes have been trending west on the GFS Ensemble Mean, which is what we want to see for better storm chances with the waves dropping out of Canada.  No way in the world the models will be able to resolve the details of the specific short waves dropping down into the eastern trough, but they WILL be able to resolve the trends in the large scale ridge/trough placement.  The GFS suite is the farthest west with the ridge/trough...then GEPS...with the Euro farthest east.  We now need the GEFS to be correct  :)

Also, the GFS Superensemble analogs continue to boast dates close to some of the better northern stream diving storms we've seen over the years, with 3 that dropped 5+ inches of snow at RDU (Feb 1996, Jan 2009, Jan 1965).  The Jan '65 storm is one of the best northern stream divers I know of in the record books (along with Jan 2003)...it dropped 10.3 inches of snow in Charlotte, 10-15 in Hickory/Lenoir.  The Feb 7, 1968 storm on the list (2/10/68 is the analog date) dropped 3.5 inches in Savannah.  Does that mean we will get a good storm?  Of course not, but at least the pattern on the GEFS offers some level of hope for getting a northern stream diving storm.

xbxr3b.gif

 

 Here's the trend on the GFS Ens over the past 9 runs with the ridge/trough trending west...

GEFS Trend.gif

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45 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Looking at the 6z gefs maps posted above it reminds me of something Larry pointed out yesterday. At 500mb you need those lines over your back yard with some south orientation not due west or NW. South of west is how you score winter weather. What he was explaining to someone is if you keep studying the 500mb maps youll notice the trough axis needs to be just a tick to your west so you can get some sw flow. This probably is a net result of how/where the ridge sets up in the pac. Anyway Ive noticed and he's pointed out 2 trends seem to be showing up. 1st is the NW flow /clipper parade with ns stream energy which is a bonus for nwfs folks, but the next fertile ground is shapping up to be the coastal plain areas espeacilly NC. reason is is the trough/ 500mb bareley gets them in a southwest flow. This would promote one of these clippers/ns having time for a late phase off the SE atlantic coast as oppossed to gom. Most poster on here need a eastern GOM phase/interaction with the 2 streams to score. So food for thought when going forward is to see exactly where the axis on 500mb is setting up on ensembels and that will be the biggest clue who has the window of opportunity coming up. 

yes, agree, good post....at the higher end of the scale, you want to see one of those waves dive down and bottom out and/or close off over the 'southern' TN Valley

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Love the potential that is showing up at the end of the month on the GFS. Yeah, it missed the exact location of the snow around here with the last storm, but potential is the best the models can show anyway. Too many variables involved for them to get the exact amount of snow and location perfect, and the smallest things can make a big difference.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

That is really what an old fashioned Southern snow used to look like!!! And there's a wedge sig out in front! She's a beaut Clark

That's how you get snow south of I-85..look at that high placement..the sad thing is when the storm finally gets here, that high will be halfway to Portugal 

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