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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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12 minutes ago, Avdave said:

If this happens, banana hammock wx for Christmas Day.  

25158383_10215246371421700_9167812204621358065_n.jpg

That's pavement on I85 is going to be awfully hot! Bring it on! I've already had my dusting + 12" of fantasy snow/sleet/rain for the year. 

With that said, I believe these temps are overdone for a number of reasons and with that sharp temperature gradient it looks like the cold from that 1056 HP in Montana is on the move. #sloshthebathtub 

i beleieve that whatever "heat" shows up will be short lived 

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Its amazing at how good a start to winter we are having in light of what many ,self included thought might be a three-peat. Folks we have never had 90 striaight days of normal to BN temps. Winter down here has ebbs and flows. 

Sitting here halfway through December avg Below Normal temp and most of us above normal snowfall. Fact several have doubled ,even tripled their annual snowfall average. It's spitting snow in Wake County USA this evening for the 2cnd time in less than a week.

I put less stock in the gfs and gefs than probably anyone on here. My choice, so be cautious with it and any model out past 10 days. Even if it's right, showed 60s Christmas day RDU at 12z, you can look and right across the wake county line it's in the 40s. Still can avoid the 500mb torch with all that llc around. 

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16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Its amazing at how good a start to winter we are having in light of what many ,self included thought might be a three-peat. Folks we have never had 90 striaight days of normal to BN temps. Winter down here has ebbs and flows. 

Sitting here halfway through December avg Below Normal temp and most of us above normal snowfall. Fact several have doubled ,even tripled their annual snowfall average. It's spitting snow in Wake County USA this evening for the 2cnd time in less than a week.

I put less stock in the gfs and gefs than probably anyone on here. My choice, so be cautious with it and any model out past 10 days. Even if it's right, showed 60s Christmas day RDU at 12z, you can look and right across the wake county line it's in the 40s. Still can avoid the 500mb torch with all that llc around. 

Some areas have even had 5 times their annual average !

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59 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Burger sighting! ....... what's up man. How have you been?

Doing good. Made a few posts in the banter thread as we just had an unusual snow storm here in Amsterdam. Got a good 3 inches on the ground with heavy snow (this is a minor miracle here). The weather here actually reminds me a lot of the piedmont in the sense that most snow storms seem to be underwhelming :lol::(

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56 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Doing good. Made a few posts in the banter thread as we just had an unusual snow storm here in Amsterdam. Got a good 3 inches on the ground with heavy snow (this is a minor miracle here). The weather here actually reminds me a lot of the piedmont in the sense that most snow storms seem to be underwhelming :lol::(

BURGER!!  Great to hear from you. Hope all is well. We sure miss your EPIC Euro pbp!

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Looks like WAA eventually overwhelming and scouring-out CAD in my area prior to a frontal passage.  Sleet?...ok  Ice?...please no Santa!  It's Chrissthmass.

Oh, and you can leave my tinsel out of this.  What happens with my Christmas tree stays with my Christmas tree.

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4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Looks like WAA eventually overwhelming and scouring-out CAD in my area prior to a frontal passage.  Sleet?...ok  Ice?...please no Santa!  It's Chrissthmass.

Oh, and you can leave my tinsel out of this.  What happens with my Christmas tree stays with my Christmas tree.

Lol! We all know models scour out wedges too fast and often underestimate the strength of wedges in the first place. 

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

So, the Low in California at the end of the 6z looks interesting as well, with a pretty strong HP moving with it.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

We could be moving into an active period. One thing we know, there will be cold air and signs of a SE ridge. Where and when each win out will determine if the SE can score a storm.

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Joe Bastardi (‪@BigJoeBastardi‬)

12/13/17, 07:10

 

Likely coldest Christmas day for entire nation as a whole since 2000 core of cold will centered over the heartland but spread out west and east While snow less in west ,prospects for snow before Christmas extend to the gulf coast w of New Orleans east coast Carolinas north IMO pic.twitter.com/B3lWal19qY


 

 
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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We could be moving into an active period. One thing we know, there will be cold air and signs of a SE ridge. Where and when each win out will determine if the SE can score a storm.

As modeled above, IF that high moved in just ahead of that low coming out, it could be fun times! Nice to see 1040 and 1050 highs being shown

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40 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

So, the Low in California at the end of the 6z looks interesting as well, with a pretty strong HP moving with it.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

This is the kind of look I've been waiting for. Need L's and H's moving onto the west coast around the same time. That 1041 would be an epic CAD wedge 

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