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buckeyefan1

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

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37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Amazing how we can't get cold without it being pushed back in time, but I promise the death ridge will be right on time or early, spreading Christmas joy to all the good little girls and boys!

You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. 

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To break up the doom and gloom. Nam showing a little more amplification on the weekend storm, may atleast mean rain or flurries for somebody.....

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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25 minutes ago, packbacker said:

You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. 

Shoot, I am fine with taking my 9 inches and calling it a winter; better than most.  Anything else is gravy.

 

However, still hope all of you that missed out get something this winter.

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Ensembles are now in pretty good agreement that our beloved Alaskan ridge is going to retrograde back north/west, shifting the trough to our west and popping a decent SE ridge toward the holidays.  Perhaps things shift better cause it's still a long ways out.  But I don't think so. My biggest concern has been we'd have a good/decent period in December outside of good climo, and soon as we get into our wheelhouse in January we'd lose the pattern.  Looks like that may be the case. Hopefully in January our -QBO and low solar can kick back in and get us some good blocking back.  I hope Nina climo is not taking over.   

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_55.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png

If blank, model image not available

I thought orange map colors were good :unsure:

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42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

If too much is 1/8th " !

 

Your so lucky...I would take 1/8" in a heartbeat...that's more then I have seen since Feb 2015.

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28 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Still better than last December....

Very true!! And the one before that when I had the AC on at Christmas.

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Amazing how we can't get cold without it being pushed back in time, but I promise the death ridge will be right on time or early, spreading Christmas joy to all the good little girls and boys!

Dang Mack, You're making me miss Widre's old rants

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Well the 12z GFS stays consistent with its warm Christmas. We get a healthy looking Bermuda high which actually retrogrades westward in the next frames pushing the cold back westward (amazing look):

 

 

aaaa.jpg

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Something needs to save us.. Definitely a la nina look (in the extreme way).

Well it can’t not snow in Raleigh forever...I hope.  

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14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

JBs bathtub will save us all!

Here's the bathtub. It's weighted heavily with cold to the west (-30 temps) with a fat kid high pressure jumping in. If we had a look like this it would slosh to our side.

 

aaaa.jpg

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Here's the bathtub. It's weighted heavily with cold to the west (-30 temps) with a fat kid high pressure jumping in. If we had a look like this it would slosh to our side.

 

aaaa.jpg

This run brought snow levels down to San Francisco and Oakland. 

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49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

JBs bathtub will save us all!

Let's heat those ocean waters up in the gulf and off the SE coast then take our shot mid January with something epic

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Well the 12z GFS stays consistent with its warm Christmas. We get a healthy looking Bermuda high which actually retrogrades westward in the next frames pushing the cold back westward (amazing look):

 

 

aaaa.jpg

If this map doesn't make you sick to your stomach, you are not a fan of winter weather. North Texas with negative temperatures while southeast Texas sits around 70 degrees. Unreal 

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I keep reading the doom & gloom over Christmas temps here.  Is any of this backed up by other long range models besides the GFS and its enscrambles..

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I think the GEFS looks pretty good...cold HP bleediing down from NW Canada under the PV with plenty of activity undercutting.  Yeah, the atlantic ridge stinks and will mean more ice then snow potential.  

I guess there is some benefits to a +NAO...:(

gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png

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pack,  Looks like FROPA around then it might seem??  At this range we could have a 'warm' day in advance occur anytime over several days spanning the 25th.  That may not be what is locked down yet perhaps? 

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