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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

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5 hours ago, griteater said:

I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities

Probably  due to the fact of the southwest energy. Don't really see how it holds in place or retrogrades.  It gets ejected in some form. How what where? Plus the northern stream diving down rounding the Rockies. 

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5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

That'll lay down snowpack for the Saturday storm

That is the Saturday storm.  This coming weekend.  Depend on alot  of factors of how this evolves. Could be a clipper to a GOM low. 

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8 minutes ago, FLweather said:

That is the Saturday storm.  This coming weekend.  Depend on alot  of factors of how this evolves. Could be a clipper to a GOM low. 

There was some chatter earlier about a clipper for NC on Wednesday, that's what I was referring to, with laying down snow pack. It must have not been on 18z GFS 

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what does it look like guys for the Friday night Saturday deal, I hear it looks good one minute and what storm the next, does anyone have any ideas?  :snowman:

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41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

There was some chatter earlier about a clipper for NC on Wednesday, that's what I was referring to, with laying down snow pack. It must have not been on 18z GFS 

It’s only on the Euro and it’s ensembles for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Other models have the clipper further north in Virginia. 

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That's looks about right.  Storms have cut 15 miles from MBY for years. Last storm not a flake but 15 miles north got snow. Need a true southern slider to help me. Need GFS to show show in Cuba 7 days out lol

 

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1 hour ago, fritschy said:

what does it look like guys for the Friday night Saturday deal, I hear it looks good one minute and what storm the next, does anyone have any ideas?  :snowman:

Not out of the question that we get a storm fritschy, but it's a low chance deal right now

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3 hours ago, Disco-lemonade said:

surprised nobody mentioned the uk its not great but it aint ugly!

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

Let's get that HP trending a little stronger snd just a tick slower. That HP off the coast of Washington looks pretty 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Or a rainy deal! Also hard to get excited about a Christmas cold snap, much less wintry precip ! That is a true Snipehunt around here

I am sure there are many folks on here that don't know about snipe hunting.

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Euro Weeklies...

Week 2: similar pattern to what we've been in.  Near normal temps.  Cold to our north.  Warm in SW states / California.  Dry in the SE

Week 2.5 to Week 3: western ridge is strengthened and pushed poleward along Canadian west coast and into Alaska.  Hudson Bay cold vortex.  +NAO.  Temps are below normal east of the Rockies except FL.  SE Canada is very cold.  Precip is near normal.  This would be for Dec 22-Jan 1.

Week 4: Trough moves out west, weak SE ridge.  Slightly above normal temps.  Wetter than normal

Week 5-6: +EPO pattern with Alaska cold.  Warm over the lower 48.  Looks odd to me given the ENSO/QBO phase we are in, but we'll see.

 

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I think we probably relax for a couple weeks in Jan, but I am not bullish on a sustained winter is over kind of warm pattern this year.  I think that will end up being the real snipe hunt of the winter of 17/18.

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1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

Let's get that HP trending a little stronger snd just a tick slower. That HP off the coast of Washington looks pretty 

That high is pretty close, probably a 1028 would do the trick. They normally seem to set up shop in New England and we need something in the 1030s there. Wouldn't mind seeing a blocking high in the N Atlantic to keep it in place a bit, maybe knock that low down to a 1010 , but overall not a bad look. Maybe a little taller ridge in the West.

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34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The SE ridge is a BEAST, until the 29th! That cold Christmas that was showing, might not be happening 

That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open.

6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar).

 

aaaa.jpg

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40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The SE ridge is a BEAST, until the 29th! That cold Christmas that was showing, might not be happening 

What site are you using to see out that far?

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open.

6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar).

 

aaaa.jpg

What's it look like for the days after Christmas?  Is that a front moving through from the west?  That frame looks like last Tuesday, the last warm day before the cold air moved in.

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

What's it look like for the days after Christmas?  Is that a front moving through from the west?  That frame looks like last Tuesday, the last warm day before the cold air moved in.

The day after is similar but the cold air would be slowly moving towards the SE (fighting the SE ridge). The last frame does show the cold finally taking over but as we all know this is way out there in time.

So, we still have some time until the models home in on the pattern setup for Christmas. I would like to see a cold look by day 10; which means the models need to start changing their look in the next couple of days.

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19 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The day after is similar but the cold air would be slowly moving towards the SE (fighting the SE ridge). The last frame does show the cold finally taking over but as we all know this is way out there in time.

So, we still have some time until the models home in on the pattern setup for Christmas. I would like to see a cold look by day 10; which means the models need to start changing their look in the next couple of days.

I've seen it a hundred times, with the set up depicted on today's 6z GFS , when the Arctic air battles the SE ridge, it can take quite awhile for that air to bleed into the SE and over the mountains!

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JB doesn't buy the Gfs

Severely negative EPO by day on GFS means it makes little sense day 10-15 with itself

 

IMG_2928.JPG

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open.

6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar).

 

aaaa.jpg

Makes me feel like we're living in Central FL with those temps.for Christmas. The last three have been so warm that my kids played in t-shirts and jeans while riding new toys. 

I'm gonna take my family and move back to Marquette. At least in the UP we have snow. No summer to speak of, but definitely winter. Maybe I'll just keep a summer home here. LOL

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10 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I think we probably relax for a couple weeks in Jan, but I am not bullish on a sustained winter is over kind of warm pattern this year.  I think that will end up being the real snipe hunt of the winter of 17/18.

Good to see the persistent -AO/-EPO atleast.   Hopefully we can keep that going into January and hope the SE ridge relaxes some and we get some form of Greenland blocking.  Snowcover to our NW won’t be an issue either.  

This is probably a good thing, we suck at snow in December.  This Dec won’t be all that different then Dec 08 and 13.  Those winters turned out alright.  

 

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Ensembles are now in pretty good agreement that our beloved Alaskan ridge is going to retrograde back north/west, shifting the trough to our west and popping a decent SE ridge toward the holidays.  Perhaps things shift better cause it's still a long ways out.  But I don't think so. My biggest concern has been we'd have a good/decent period in December outside of good climo, and soon as we get into our wheelhouse in January we'd lose the pattern.  Looks like that may be the case. Hopefully in January our -QBO and low solar can kick back in and get us some good blocking back.  I hope Nina climo is not taking over.   

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_55.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png

If blank, model image not available

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