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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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13 minutes ago, griteater said:

I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities

If that set up...."sets up" would the 50/50 low/greenland blocking create some confluence from the northeast? I would think you'd want the ridging and the Newfoundland low further southeast to get confluence down to us. Trying to find some cold air for this potential.  

 gfs_z500a_namer_18.png

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9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

If that set up...."sets up" would the 50/50 low/greenland blocking create some confluence from the northeast? I would think you'd want the ridging and the Newfoundland low further southeast to get confluence down to us. Trying to find some cold air for this potential.  

Niner - it's a lot like last week where the limited cold air would come from a suppressed height field as opposed to a nice sfc high to our north. 

Euro run coming in is a little colder, but it doesn't dig the wave enough to the southwest and isn't sharp enough at the base....it's dry with some light stuff in VA

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities

lol, thanks. I think it's possible, but not likely per se. Something to watch. I think one of these little waves coming through late week could produce something worth noting. Probably not a big dog. Would like to see one of these generally less progressive models (NAVGEM/JMA/GGEM) show a more aggressive solution before I think it's likely. Since the euro was upgraded, it seems to trend less progressive as we near any "event".

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6 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

I'm with you. I'm in extreme NE NC, just south of Cheesypeake...

Yeah, our area tends to do not-so-well with clippers but occasionally we get lucky. I'd rather worry about moisture than thermals, especially after last weekend and 2.5" of rain at 35-38 degrees. 

12z GFS and Euro don't look too bad, we could definitely squeeze out a dusting, or even an inch. 

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30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The clipper for the middle of the week doesn't look like much, but it would be awesome to see snow falling for the second time during the first half of December. I don't recall the last time I have seen that happen here.

2010; we had three events in our area. Dec 4th had 2-3" inches of snow through our area, Dec 15th we had 1.5" of snow and 1/10 of ice through our area, and then we had the Christmas storm with 9-10" of snow through our area.

Truly a great December for us.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1

  

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

2010; we had three events in our area. Dec 4th had 2-3" inches of snow through our area, Dec 15th we had 1.5" of snow and 1/10 of ice through our area, and then we had the Christmas storm with 9-10" of snow through our area.

Truly a great December for us.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1

  

I thought that might have been it, but couldn't recall. I think the epic Christmas snow made me forget about the other two events. Maybe we're setting up for a December like that. 

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I guess the GEFS was correct after all about the growing SER in the extended.  Should be a great pattern for the TN/OH valley.  It's not 2012 or 2016 pattern....so we have that atleast.

The +NAO will be problematic.

eps_z500a_d5_noram_360.png

Lol! That's five day anomalies, and we could still score with that look! ;)!!!!! I

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13 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

^^I agree Mack. It would be a battle between the SE ridge and the cold press from the NW. The GFS shows (day 16) what could happen with this type of setup. JB once stated that cold dense air will overwhelm the pattern; basically cutting under the warmth more than the models will show.  

We just need to get it over the mountains!! No one in NC/SC wants any part of an Arctic plunge that gets caught bisecting TN and gives Memphis the snowy/icy goods!

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