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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

My suspicion is that we are not going to have a very torchy year with very few storm chances.  I think we are much more variable with even a lean toward colder conditions at times.  I think there will be several worthwhile events to track, and I think we see some periods of legit blocking at times.  I anticipate a much more fun winter than what we have seen of late.

@NC_hailstorm Hook us up with a solar update when you have a second, please sir!  Need to know how we're tracking with that.

I have a feeling that the models are going to perform worse than normal (..which is saying a lot). Being optimistic, I think the actual weather will end up cooler than what is modeled out past 10 days. We haven't seen many CAD events yet but I could see that occurring a lot during the next couple of months (la nina, cold temps to the north, some blocking).   

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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Sure does. The one notable difference is the initial air mass will be colder. That could give areas like RDU, Charlotte, and the up-state the chance at something other than rain.

The reason the low pops there is not enough digging of the vort. If it is further west and digs a bit more then that low shifts south a good deal and NC will be colder with some snow. It’s very close to being something good on the GFS and NAM is even better looking. 

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The 15th definitely has some potential to become more amplified due to the Atlantic pattern (500mb low over Maine (sometimes called the NF low or 50/50 low) and also the ridging to the NE of that feature into Greenland area). That slows the flow down over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS and causes incoming s/w's to amplify and potentially cutoff. Something to keep an eye on.

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Something ive also been trying to pay more attention to is dew points, ive been watching the p types change imby based more off that then temp(when near freezing) Note the 42° forecasted over wake at about 18z friday, obviously it all will change 20 times but i get so caught up on temps i forget how much this can matter. Thats why i generally cringe with the NW trend beggars because when your closer to the coast that warm moist air gets pulled in incredibly easily. 

12Z-20171211_GFSMA_sfc_dewp-90-111-75-100.gif

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Dang, Pack is gonna hate this image:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_42.thumb.png.2d52fbba4f9adf39f31d6ee2b62d89ec.png

 

And this one:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_45.thumb.png.0a81ef61aa95493c6b59b82fc4984856.png

 

And this one:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_53.thumb.png.f79b9920127204eb80eb83def693c569.png

W/ these large PNA ridges, we're due for one of these super Highs w/ arctic air to slide down into the plains, however we're so early in the season they haven't fully developed/matured in northern latitudes to the point you would see in Jan/Feb. If we can keep this pattern into Jan/Feb, it will bear fruit from a CAD perspective.

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

W/ these large PNA ridges, we're due for one of these super Highs w/ arctic air to slide down into the plains, however we're so early in the season they haven't fully developed/matured in northern latitudes to the point you would see in Jan/Feb. If we can keep this pattern into Jan/Feb, it will bear fruit from a CAD perspective.

Yeah, I agree.  I like how the PNA keeps showing up.  I am hopeful that we can add some legit blocking later on and get into a really fun, less transitory pattern.

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

W/ these large PNA ridges, we're due for one of these super Highs w/ arctic air to slide down into the plains, however we're so early in the season they haven't fully developed/matured in northern latitudes to the point you would see in Jan/Feb. If we can keep this pattern into Jan/Feb, it will bear fruit from a CAD perspective.

Thank you for that.  I've been wondering why we haven't been seeing those so far this year.  The previous several years with +PNA and -EPO, they've been plentiful. 

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5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

W/ these large PNA ridges, we're due for one of these super Highs w/ arctic air to slide down into the plains, however we're so early in the season they haven't fully developed/matured in northern latitudes to the point you would see in Jan/Feb. If we can keep this pattern into Jan/Feb, it will bear fruit from a CAD perspective.

The deepening snowpack in the NE and lakes, should help if a cad event should develop 

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet digs the wave more this run into S CO / N NM.  Has a weak southern slider.  Precip along the SE coast that reaches back to Augusta/Columbia/E NC

To me the evolution on the 12z GFS is very close to something better for Fri/the weekend. Gets some decent light snow up my way anyhow. Vort is trying to dig on the 96-108 frames. Although the light snow is not from the southern stream but rather the northern stream. Anyhow definitely bears watching.

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

He doesn't mean anything by it...just being humorous.

Yeah but after five years....it just seems like straight sarcasm. Which is ok from time to time......But every single post. Im the biggest sh#t talker in the world...but it has its limits........we have a banter thread. But anyways im not putting to much stock in the long range. One thing that does bother me is in November we had all that blocking and cold show up in the LR that got weaker as time passed. So seeing warmth in the LR is a little concerning. 

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That's not too bad.  How bad to temps look?

UKMet hasn't updated on Meteocentre for some reason.  On the early, sideways 500mb charts I see the wave handling.  Weather.us has the sfc and precip now - http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php.  I suspect temps would be a close call

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1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

By the way, how well did the DWD Icon do with this last storm? Did anyone actually pay attention to it? Pretty sure it was one of the more moist models, but not sure how well it did with temps or SLP placement.

I know early on it was more suppressed like the GFS and Euro....I don't know how it did close in....but it's been pretty good with it's ideas the past 2 years.

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

I know early on it was more suppressed like the GFS and Euro....I don't know how it did close in....but it's been pretty good with it's ideas the past 2 years.

I think it does fairly well with QPF(it spotted a precip maxima stripe across NW GA...same places that got up to a foot of snow). When people usually post it, they only post precip. maps so it's hard to gauge how well it does in terms of upper level features or low placement.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if models continue to trend the western ridge stronger and a more amplified and digging vort/trough. This weekend could surprise someone. Can't help but think how eerily similar it looks to last week.

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