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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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9 hours ago, griteater said:

Baby step on the GFS with the western ridge and sharper trough...and we have some light snow breaking out in NE GA to W NC to VA Fri morning

Looks similar  setup in my eyes to this past system.  Just stronger more east outcome.  Below is this mornings 6z NAM at h5. Southwest low further east and not closed or retrograding.  More northern stream energy of course...  Timing  issues but hey at least there is storm potential next weekend  too. 

Screenshot_20171211-080350.png

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Bastardi:

When a model does not make sense with itself, one must question, Off the charts neg EPO a very cold signal as per correlations.So model forecasting warm against its pattern a problem.Euro, Canadian see cold plains east Dec 20 on. US models 11-16 too warm east and south IMO

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Sounds like long range is falling apart! No storm Friday, merry Torchmas

Looks nice...should be a pleasant holidays.  Look at that AK ridge...and the southeast ridge isn’t a slouch either.  -PNA with a +NAO equals warmth in the southeast.  

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_360.png

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13 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looks nice...should be a pleasant holidays.  Look at that AK ridge...and the southeast ridge isn’t a slouch either.  -PNA with a +NAO equals warmth in the southeast.  

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_360.png

That's a nice look! I'm off till the 3rd of January, can I borrow a bag or two of pre emergeant!?

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2 hours ago, packfan98 said:

The 6z GEFS wanted no part of bringing in the colder air for Christmas.  Stayed above normal in the SE through the end of the run.  Doesn't match earlier runs.  Let's see what happens in subsequent runs today.

GEFS and GFS is like watching a yo yo. It humors me how it swings folks moods through the course of a day model watching. Not you, cause alot of us watch it 4X's per day because its free and continously updating. I miss the old gfs, it would atleast throw out clown maps for entertainment in the LR. This new/updated one couldnt even muster one up 48 hours from an actual bonified solid hit lol.

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The timeframe around the 15th is kinda interesting given the setup over NA (+PNA/-NAO/large UL over Maine). Even though the setup is good, it obviously doesn't guarantee anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if that clipper system or anything coming out of the PJ(Canada) amplifies more than the models are currently showing. After that, it looks to be until the Christmas timeframe before the pattern becomes favorable again for anything.

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37 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looks nice...should be a pleasant holidays.  Look at that AK ridge...and the southeast ridge isn’t a slouch either.  -PNA with a +NAO equals warmth in the southeast.  

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_360.png

Is that the 5 day average? Meaning it won't show the torchiness it advertises?? 

Look at the AK ridge.  That still shows nearly a full northern hemisphere ridge. Slight weakness near Green land.  OK.  The first great  ? Is why the second greatest  anomaly over eastern Canada.  2 ? Is why the first great anomaly near Hawaii?. It's not happening.  Nothing on this map proves a torch or extended SE death ridge. 

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1 hour ago, tramadoc said:

It's almost like every post from you is negative. I swear it almost seems as if you relish the thought of AN temps during winter.

Actually, I relish the cold and snow! That's where the negativity and bitterness comes from, living in the wrong place to enjoy those things. And when all you hear is how great the pattern is and how cold, and Christmas is finally not going to torch, like the last 3, yadda, yadda, now I'm looking at mid 60s all next week and the brutal cold Christmas, is now looking above normal! 

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Indices:

AO - Looks to go positive in the LR **big spread, about a quarter do go negative

NAO - Looks to stay positive of maybe neutral in the LR **average of the LR spread would be ~neutral

PNA - Looks to stay positive into the LR **Only good news, days earlier it was showing negative

Basically it's looking like the pattern setup we've become accustomed to over the last few years.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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46 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Is that the 5 day average? Meaning it won't show the torchiness it advertises?? 

Look at the AK ridge.  That still shows nearly a full northern hemisphere ridge. Slight weakness near Green land.  OK.  The first great  ? Is why the second greatest  anomaly over eastern Canada.  2 ? Is why the first great anomaly near Hawaii?. It's not happening.  Nothing on this map proves a torch or extended SE death ridge. 

I guess will see...it's seems like the past few winters that warmth has won out.  Is that look above all that different than this...

cwoMp2F.png

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Going to be interesting where we are temp departure wise after the 20th...we are solidly AN now through the first 10 days of Dec.  The next 6-7 days look to be BN but then days 7-11 look to be solidly AN.  So much for the slam dunk of December being BN....

Grit:  Don't you have a tool that shows what the temp departure will be rolled forward with the GEFS?

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

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8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

The gefs is the only one showing warmth in the 11-15th.

Pack and Mack like to go with the warmest model.  I get it.  I like to go with the model showing the least snow.  Why?  Usually warmth and less snow win out.  So, you sort of keep your hopes in check by maintaining a level of skepticism and apathy.  It's sort of like being a State fan.  Always expect to lose and your apathy will usually be rewarded.  However, the caveat is, it only works until it doesn't.  When the worm turns, you are pleasantly surprised.  Until then, you find comfort in the fact that your cynicism was correct.  It's a sick and twisted psychology! :)

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23 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Going to be interesting where we are temp departure wise after the 20th...we are solidly AN now through the first 10 days of Dec.  The next 6-7 days look to be BN but then days 7-11 look to be solidly AN.  So much for the slam dunk of December being BN....

Grit:  Don't you have a tool that shows what the temp departure will be rolled forward with the GEFS?

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

Hate to call you out but RDU is below normal for the month of December, not solidly AN. That map is wrong. Check your climate preliminary off raleigh nws. Far more accurate

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Pack and Mack like to go with the warmest model.  I get it.  I like to go with the model showing the least snow.  Why?  Usually warmth and less snow win out.  So, you sort of keep your hopes in check by maintaining a level of skepticism and apathy.  It's sort of like being a State fan.  Always expect to lose and your apathy will usually be rewarded.  However, the caveat is, it only works until it doesn't.  When the worm turns, you are pleasantly surprised.  Until then, you find comfort in the fact that your cynicism was correct.  It's a sick and twisted psychology! :)

Maybe Coach Keats is our Miller A with subfreezing temps!

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Pack and Mack like to go with the warmest model.  I get it.  I like to go with the model showing the least snow.  Why?  Usually warmth and less snow win out.  So, you sort of keep your hopes in check by maintaining a level of skepticism and apathy.  It's sort of like being a State fan.  Always expect to lose and your apathy will usually be rewarded.  However, the caveat is, it only works until it doesn't.  When the worm turns, you are pleasantly surprised.  Until then, you find comfort in the fact that your cynicism was correct.  It's a sick and twisted psychology! :)

Completely understandable. I don't have all the answers myself. But before and after Irma the pattern did a huge flip. Higher than h2 h3 h5. 

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27 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Going to be interesting where we are temp departure wise after the 20th...we are solidly AN now through the first 10 days of Dec.  The next 6-7 days look to be BN but then days 7-11 look to be solidly AN.  So much for the slam dunk of December being BN....

Grit:  Don't you have a tool that shows what the temp departure will be rolled forward with the GEFS?

Month to date plus 7 day GFS forecast: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_ntham/ANOM2m_fcstMTH_ntham.html

For Dec 1-10...

Charlotte: +3.6

Asheville: +1.4

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Completely understandable. I don't have all the answers myself. But before and after Irma the pattern did a huge flip. Higher than h2 h3 h5. 

My suspicion is that we are not going to have a very torchy year with very few storm chances.  I think we are much more variable with even a lean toward colder conditions at times.  I think there will be several worthwhile events to track, and I think we see some periods of legit blocking at times.  I anticipate a much more fun winter than what we have seen of late.

@NC_hailstorm Hook us up with a solar update when you have a second, please sir!  Need to know how we're tracking with that.

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