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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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12 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Euro is warmer than UK aloft so it depends on how the setup and details work out. NAVGEM is also fairly cold as well so Euro appears alone in that regard. 

Well the UkMET and NAVGEM have both done well with this recent storm(around 5-6 days out) and did pretty well in January. Euro on the other hand wasn't that great. Perhaps the western ridge can trend higher with future runs because if it doesn't, there won't be any real cold air around.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Maybe I notice it more because I follow the models a lot more, but it is so frustrating that it can be freezing cold and then when the precipitation gets here, it is just warm enough for a cold miserable rain.  (Raleigh area)

Not only am I not a met, but I am not even a hard-core amateur, but it is my understanding that this is a basic facet of our climatology.  It is in the nature of approaching systems to pull warm air ahead of them from the south.  It takes a very specific atmospheric configuration to prevent an approaching system from flooding us with warm air, and that configuration does not occur often. 

It was something that drove me crazy even back in grade school and still drives me crazy now.  For me though, just having cold temperatures around is better than nothing.  So far I am enjoying this December much more than last year or the "December to remember" of 2015.

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5 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Hate to be a Darryl downer but i'm not in love with the precip pattern. Clippers don't bode well for 90% of this forum. Hoping for some change as we move into January 

I'm not even a 1/4 as knowledgeable about weather on here as most, like Grit, et al, but those storms on the Ukie and NAVGEM around the 16th, are not clippers!

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm not even a 1/4 as knowledgeable about weather on here as most, like Grit, et al, but those storms on the Ukie and NAVGEM around the 16th, are not clippers!

I agree. I just see too much action out of the north. Like I said, I hope I'm just being a downer. Just like to see more entering the CONUS out of SoCal. I'm no expert, I just have my preferred looks.

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30 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

I agree. I just see too much action out of the north. Like I said, I hope I'm just being a downer. Just like to see more entering the CONUS out of SoCal. I'm no expert, I just have my preferred looks.

A wave coming down the Rockies and rounding an eastern trough, is also an acceptable way to get a good southern storm. Anything coming from a W or SW trajectory is acceptable, never from N or NW!

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Its the pattern. If the pattern fits, then model hints are not laughable. Ensembles are sniffing this pattern out, so raising the spectre of another snow or ice, since alot of low level cold air is coming Christmas week IMO, in the deep south

DQuYZ4rXkAEladv.jpg

 

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384hr warm nose :lol:. In all seriousness, I believe this is the year. I don't like to bring the board down, I just like to set my expectations low. That way, it's hard to lose. I've been following this board since 2009 so, in a way, I guess you could say I'm a vet around here (in terms of page clicks NOT experience). You guys are very insighthful and I attribute the little amount that I do know to you guys. 

With that said, has anyone looked at the LR GFS? What's going on with that precip that's stalled out from 264-384? 

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1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

I agree. I just see too much action out of the north. Like I said, I hope I'm just being a downer. Just like to see more entering the CONUS out of SoCal. I'm no expert, I just have my preferred looks.

 

This isn’t a clipper if it follows the UK and now the Euro track. It’s a classic Miller A track which is what brings some of the best snows to the Southeast provided the cold is in place. Those details will become clear as we get closer but for now the overall idea of a Miller A in the GOM then up off the East Coast is a classic track. You can’t ask for much more other than a stout HP in the NE. 

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28 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Its the pattern. If the pattern fits, then model hints are not laughable. Ensembles are sniffing this pattern out, so raising the spectre of another snow or ice, since alot of low level cold air is coming Christmas week IMO, in the deep south

DQuYZ4rXkAEladv.jpg

 

What up BF!? You and JB getting together for for the holidays!? :)

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20 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

384hr warm nose :lol:. In all seriousness, I believe this is the year. I don't like to bring the board down, I just like to set my expectations low. That way, it's hard to lose. I've been following this board since 2009 so, in a way, I guess you could say I'm a vet around here (in terms of page clicks NOT experience). You guys are very insighthful and I attribute the little amount that I do know to you guys. 

With that said, has anyone looked at the LR GFS? What's going on with that precip that's stalled out from 264-384? 

Just past 10 day noise, I'd guess! It looks like the general idea of an Arctic front coming down and stalling with some overrunning! You don't want that look, IMO. That N TX to W TN ice and snow, will never translate to anything good for us!

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Hard to get winter off to a better start than where we sit currently. Just using GSO November ended up BN and after today's departures get figured in, DEC will be BN and on its way to what will end up being a pretty heavy handed BN temp departure by months end.

To put icing on the cake, quite a few posters have achieved as much as 200% their anual snowfall avg, while others have put a big dent in theirs. Yes some folks missed out, but we have alot to look forward to the rest of the month. Several posters east of the mtns should score 1 possiby 2 frozen precip events before we yank all the Christmas decorations down. Of course the big winners are the mtn folk. At a  minimum multiple upslope chances on the horizon remainder of the month in addition to cashing in on a couple of synoptic events.

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Its the pattern. If the pattern fits, then model hints are not laughable. Ensembles are sniffing this pattern out, so raising the spectre of another snow or ice, since alot of low level cold air is coming Christmas week IMO, in the deep south

DQuYZ4rXkAEladv.jpg

 

What stands out to me more than anything else is the amount of snow-cover projected to be in the northeast. That's our ticket to good confluence moving forward. I like the pattern coming up more so than the last event. Even though we did have some snow here in the foothills, we were still on the outside looking in with respect to the huge totals just to our west. I am going to pay more attention to the NAVGEM with this next event. It has the hot hand right now.

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