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buckeyefan1

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

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Saturday looks pretty wet over the Carolinas at least......lots of cape and low shear means slow movers too, so those that do get in on it will get a lot.

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Looks like the 594dm death ridge will make its first appearance this year,starting on day 4.Hopefully its in and out but eventually you get under these every summer.Will be interesting to see how hot it can get with the wet ground/soil at the moment.

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On 7/14/2017 at 0:35 AM, downeastnc said:

Saturday looks pretty wet over the Carolinas at least......lots of cape and low shear means slow movers too, so those that do get in on it will get a lot.

Never got 1 drop here. Nothing now for 15 days. Same old pattern from the last 2 summers is here to stay until at least September, if not October. Meaning some places will get 10-15 inches of rain before I get 1 more drop here.

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46 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Never got 1 drop here. Nothing now for 15 days. Same old pattern from the last 2 summers is here to stay until at least September, if not October. Meaning some places will get 10-15 inches of rain before I get 1 more drop here.

I see 3 possible solutions: 

1. Move

2. Adjust your outlook 

3. Remain in misery forever

 

You get one life; choose wisely! ;)

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3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the 594dm death ridge will make its first appearance this year,starting on day 4.Hopefully its in and out but eventually you get under these every summer.Will be interesting to see how hot it can get with the wet ground/soil at the moment.

I'm thinking upper 90's for GSP to CLT late week into the weekend.  Nasty

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32 minutes ago, griteater said:

I'm thinking upper 90's for GSP to CLT late week into the weekend.  Nasty

A 597 shows up briefly in the plains. Looks pretty hot over the next ten days indeed, but it looks like it wants to retrograde back west towards the end of the month. Let's hope this is the worst of our summer.

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NWS- for Raleigh

Friday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

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3 hours ago, Solak said:

NWS- for Raleigh

Friday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

They are calling for mid to upper 90's here from Friday thru Tuesday before back to normal.

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2 hours ago, yotaman said:

They are calling for mid to upper 90's here from Friday thru Tuesday before back to normal.

Yeah going to be 95-100 with high RH and DP's.....so some 110-120 HI values will be the case for extended periods Fri-Sun....nothing says summer like 10-12 hrs of above 100+ heat indexes every day.

 

Never fear though the models have us well below normal the last week of the run......a  few days with highs in the low 80's as the pattern delivers with yet another trough.....

gfsp_T2m_eus_44.thumb.png.c7e5b81d8771db06395b033b2284b3b8.png

 

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Looks like August could start below normal with highs barely getting into the mid 80's, most of us should see 88-90 as our average high this time of year so low to mid 80's is awesome especially considering the next 3-5 days.  So Friday thru Sunday will be hot but even so the models have backed off a lot of the 100 type temps and show mid to upper 90's which isn't really that impressive all things considered. Then Wed on next week looks below normal.....and once we get to mid Aug the chances of major heat waves start to back off and given the pattern we are in this year it seems likely that this weekend could be the worst we see all summer.....and if that is the case then this summer has been about as typical and average a summer as you will find in the SE.

 

The GFS run starting next Wed....the CMC and Euro agree.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017071812&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=0

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Noticed this trend as well. Looks like the heat wave will be pretty short lived for most, 3-5 days then back to seasonal or even below. TWC has all 80s for the upstate after Tuesday. GSP plus 2.67 on rain for the month and nearly 7 over for the year so no problems there. Still have a few weeks to go but if this ends up being our hottest weather of the summer I'll take a repeat of this summer every year!

Well lol at the 18z GFS though, has the exact opposite in the long range with no front and 100+! We'll see what happens.

 

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Noticed this trend as well. Looks like the heat wave will be pretty short lived for most, 3-5 days then back to seasonal or even below. TWC has all 80s for the upstate after Tuesday. GSP plus 2.67 on rain for the month and nearly 7 over for the year so no problems there. Still have a few weeks to go but if this ends up being our hottest weather of the summer I'll take a repeat of this summer every year!

Well lol at the 18z GFS though, has the exact opposite in the long range with no front and 100+! We'll see what happens.

 

The 18Z runs always seem to be the off run every day for whatever reason...00Z was in line with previous runs, and the CMC and Euro also show the cool off so this heat isnt going to lock in. The pattern does look dryer overall though but like you pointed out rainfall hasnt been a issue unless you live in Shetleys area apparently. 

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This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

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17 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

Yeah I agree this is far from a legit heat wave but in the terms of how average this summer has been its the closest thing to a heat wave so far. Some places in the sandhills etc will flirt with 100 maybe. I don't expect to get much above 98 here and it will definitely be the hottest weather of the year. Again though if this ends up being the hottest stretch we have to deal with this summer then its been a good summer.

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1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

Has been very east -coast- trough pattern this summer! We won't be able to buy a trough after November! 

But yeah, 3-4 days in a row of 5-8 degrees above normal, doesn't seem like a heatwave in my book!

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An FYI for all the RADAR watchers...

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
219 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...NWS Raleigh WSR-88D Radar Scheduled for Upgrade Next Week...
 
The National Weather Service Raleigh WSR-88D Doppler weather 
radar, KRAX, located in Clayton, NC, will be down for 
approximately four days beginning Monday, July 24, 2017, for 
technicians to install an important technological upgrade. 
 
During the outage, radar coverage should be available from  
adjacent NWS radar sites, including Blacksburg, VA (KFTX);  
Wakefield, VA (KAKQ); Newport/Morehead City, NC (KMHX);  
Wilmington, NC (KLTX); Columbia, SC (KCAE); Greenville-  
Spartanburg, SC (KGSP) as well as the Federal Aviation  
Administration Terminal Doppler Weather Radar in Raleigh, 
NC (TRDU).
 
A crew will install a new signal processor, which replaces obsolete  
technology, improves processing speed and data quality, provides  
added functionality, and supports IT security. 
 
This is the first of four major upgrades, known as the Service  
Life Extension Project (SLEP), planned over the next five years  
to replace and refurbish major components of the 20 year old WSR-  
88Ds and to keep the radars operational into the 2030s. The 150M 
investment is being made by the three organizations that 
operationally use these radars, the NOAA National Weather Service,
United States Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration. The 
other service life extension projects include refurbishing the 
transmitter, pedestal, and equipment shelters. 

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NWS keeps bumping us down in the grids, now calling for a high of 95 Fri and 96 Sat/Sun and has us back at 89 by Wed....

 

MHX disco talks heavy rain next week according to the Euro possible...

Thursday Night through Sunday...19/12Z global model suite
remain in decent agreement with extending the west- central
upper ridge eastward while another upper ridge moves into the
western Atlantic. This pattern will lead to increasing temps
and humidity with below normal convective coverage through the
weekend. What activity there is should be diurnally driven in
the afternoon and early evenings although will have to be on
the outlook for possible upstream MCS development and possible
effects on this area, though will only continue advertising no
higher than a 20 pop through the weekend across interior zones.
19/12Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC in good agreement with low level
thicknesses 1425-1430 meters Friday and around 1435-1440 meters
Sat- Sun. This will support max temps easily reaching the mid
90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are likely from
Friday through Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday...Ensemble height fields indicate a
lowering of heights/thicknesses beginning as early as Monday,
and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed
due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This
will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and
lead to increasing shower/storm chances. The ECMWF is quite
moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g/kg
with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the
region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat
developing

 

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This is from RDU for next week...enjoy it now cause you probably wont see this sentence used much after November.....

Sun-Wed: Above normal temps/humidity may persist into Sunday, though
chances for convection will also increase as cyclonic flow aloft
strengthens over/upstream of the Mid-Atlantic. With an unseasonably
complex synoptic pattern over the mid-latitudes, uncertainty
increases significantly by early/mid next week. At this time, will
indicate near normal temperatures and near climatological chances
for convection Mon-Wed, in assoc/w a synoptic pattern generally
characterized by ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over
the eastern CONUS.

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7 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

I'd much rather get into the 100s tho. Mid-upper 90s is boring and unpleasant with nothing to show for it.

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The overall runs looks like the pattern we are in of 3-4 hot days followed by 3-4 normal to below normal days is going to continue, as we get later in Aug if the SE ridge keeps moving back and forth like it is it could make or break a landfall for the SE coast.....this pattern makes me feel like there are going to be several storms make runs at us this year. 

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