Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Wow! Correlation between cool June and rest of summer? 

[FallsLake]

33 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Wow! Correlation between cool June and rest of summer? 

That would be nice. Our three hottest months tend to be June, July, and August. Any cool periods during these time is a big plus. I've see years in the past with wall to wall heat for all three months.

12z GFS temp anomaly for day 7 (..and then it continues beyond that):

 

 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

That would be nice. Our three hottest months tend to be June, July, and August. Any cool periods during these time is a big plus. I've see years in the past with wall to wall heat for all three months.

12z GFS temp anomaly for day 7 (..and then it continues beyond that):

 

 

Yeah the euro has been really honing in on another big trough setting up over the east again heading into June. This weather has been fantastic for this time of the year. A real 180 from last year to this year especially with all the rain. I hate to say it but we need just a bit of a dry spell because the ground is so saturated here in the mountains.  A lot of tree damage from Saturday nights storms around here.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the euro has been really honing in on another big trough setting up over the east again heading into June. This weather has been fantastic for this time of the year. A real 180 from last year to this year especially with all the rain. I hate to say it but we need just a bit of a dry spell because the ground is so saturated here in the mountains.  A lot of tree damage from Saturday nights storms around here.

Yeah, I've been saying that awhile too. I can't get on board with the endless rain lust train that many seem to be on here where no amount of rain is enough. I am more than ready for a break and most people in the region are way over for the year. I cant seem to catch up with the grass and everything is just soggy. Only plus is the cooler weather,  and that's a big plus, but need to dry out a bit  too.

[Solak]

Via MeteoStar....

348

Thu 06/15 18Z

101 °

74 °

[Met1985]

12 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah, I've been saying that awhile too. I can't get on board with the endless rain lust train that many seem to be on here where no amount of rain is enough. I am more than ready for a break and most people in the region are way over for the year. I cant seem to catch up with the grass and everything is just soggy. Only plus is the cooler weather,  and that's a big plus, but need to dry out a bit  too.

Yeah I agree.  We had several trees uprootSaturday night because the ground is so saturated.  We will see what happens. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro and the Ukie have low heights/trough over the east for at least the next 6 and 7 days which is fine by me.I'll try and avoid the 594dm death ridge as long as I can.

[FallsLake]

From JB:

 

[Solak]

RAH:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Given high confidence in the models in forecasting highs in the 90s
next week, the heat indices may make it feel 100+ suggesting our
first heat wave of the summer season. Be prepared!

Look for a warming trend quickly Friday through Sunday with dry
weather as upper troughing is replaced with ridging over the
eastern seaboard. The upper ridge is then forecast to build and
strengthen over from the western Atlantic westward to cover much of
the eastern United States Monday through Wednesday. The hottest
weather may very well occur on Monday and Tuesday as the ridging
position favors a mean WSW low level flow across the Carolina`s and
Virginia. Highs of 90-95 appear likely Monday through Wednesday,
with some 95-97 readings possible in the typically hottest
locations.

However, as hot as it will get - the main concern may very well
end up being the potential heat indices topping 100 degrees
Monday through Wednesday. Dew points are forecast to reach 65-70
over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain Monday through
Wednesday, suggesting heat indices would reach 98-103 in areas from
the Triangle and Fayetteville east through the Coastal Plain.

With the upper ridge axis expected to be overhead through Wednesday,
any rain chance would be associated with diurnally driven
convection. This will be kept to a minimum, except possibly over the
mountains mid-week. We will either carry no POP or "slight" chance
of a thunderstorm (as POP should be well below climatology given the
upper ridging forecast).

[FallsLake]

^^^It's about time for us to be immersed into the endless heat and humidity of summer. We've been lucky to get these cool breaks up to this point but we all know what typical summer weather brings to the SE.   

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

^^^It's about time for us to be immersed into the endless heat and humidity of summer. We've been lucky to get these cool breaks up to this point but we all know what typical summer weather brings to the SE.   

The heatwave looks transient , and the longer we put off the " typical" summer weather, the better!

[downeastnc]

12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The heatwave looks transient , and the longer we put off the " typical" summer weather, the better!

Should be plenty of the scattered afternoon storms popping up too next week, its hit or miss but the lucky ones under those type of storms usually get a quick couple of inches....

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

The heatwave looks transient , and the longer we put off the " typical" summer weather, the better!

I sure hope so. GFS does show the heat breaking, returning, then breaking again. Maybe we can get one of those rare below normal summers.

[NC_hailstorm]

I see 3 or 4 fairly warm days next week but the GFS is going for more low heights/trof in the east after day 7.Euro not as much but definitely no 594dm death ridges showing up yet either.

[LithiaWx]

3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I see 3 or 4 fairly warm days next week but the GFS is going for more low heights/trof in the east after day 7.Euro not as much but definitely no 594dm death ridges showing up yet either.

This has been a very tame late spring.  I can recall many recent years where we were already seeing mid 90s day after day.  

 

This summer has me reminded of the summers in way back land.  Late 80s to mid 90s.  temperatures have been very mild.  Lots of rain and some cool nights down near 60 with dry air.  So far this late spring early summer I give it a 9.  It's been epic and has had everything.    

[pcbjr]

28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

This has been a very tame late spring.  I can recall many recent years where we were already seeing mid 90s day after day.  

 

This summer has me reminded of the summers in way back land.  Late 80s to mid 90s.  temperatures have been very mild.  Lots of rain and some cool nights down near 60 with dry air.  So far this late spring early summer I give it a 9.  It's been epic and has had everything.    

We'll keep hoping and trying and praying that July is just so kind, as well ...

[Met1985]

14 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

This has been a very tame late spring.  I can recall many recent years where we were already seeing mid 90s day after day.  

 

This summer has me reminded of the summers in way back land.  Late 80s to mid 90s.  temperatures have been very mild.  Lots of rain and some cool nights down near 60 with dry air.  So far this late spring early summer I give it a 9.  It's been epic and has had everything.    

I absolutely agree.  We have had highs in the 60s this week in June! That's unheard of recently. Lows in the 40s also has been great. We have been treated well this spring with the weather.

[yotaman]

20 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I see 3 or 4 fairly warm days next week but the GFS is going for more low heights/trof in the east after day 7.Euro not as much but definitely no 594dm death ridges showing up yet either.

I noticed the forecast is backing off the extreme heat for next week. Highs upper 80's to around 90 instead of low to mid 90's. I wish this week would repeat.

[downeastnc]

Need to watch the GOM next weekend into the following week as the models continue to show tropical development in the central/eastern GOM....they have been pretty consistent with this for several days now. 

[Solak]

I love dramatic headlines!

Tens of millions will roast in first major U.S. heat wave of the season

http://mashable.com/2017/06/09/june-heat-wave-hits-millions/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link#zpIpkhx3w8qD

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, Solak said:

I love dramatic headlines!

Tens of millions will roast in first major U.S. heat wave of the season

http://mashable.com/2017/06/09/june-heat-wave-hits-millions/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link#zpIpkhx3w8qD

Low to mid 90's in the NE and its the end of the world.....no rain here till Thursday it looks like, thats gonna put us at close to a week no rain thats the longest its been without rain in a while. 

[LithiaWx]

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Low to mid 90's in the NE and its the end of the world.....no rain here till Thursday it looks like, thats gonna put us at close to a week no rain thats the longest its been without rain in a while. 

50% chance of storms forecasted the entire week down here.  I'm excited about the prospects. 

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

50% chance of storms forecasted the entire week down here.  I'm excited about the prospects. 

Yeah you guys will do better with the placement of the SE ridge, MBY is a bit to much under the ridge, you guys should have scattered thunderstorms fire every afternoon though on the western edge of the ridge...CMC crushes you GA folks with a rem TC later in the period...

 

The total precip 3k NAM map shows it pretty well....

[LithiaWx]

57 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah you guys will do better with the placement of the SE ridge, MBY is a bit to much under the ridge, you guys should have scattered thunderstorms fire every afternoon though on the western edge of the ridge...CMC crushes you GA folks with a rem TC later in the period...

 

The total precip 3k NAM map shows it pretty well....

As hard to believe as it is our drought is finally gone.  We have come a very long way from late last summer when fires were burning.  

 

We dont need or want anymore rain rain but I guess a little is ok.  I just hope a little doesn't turn into a TC. 

[downeastnc]

4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

As hard to believe as it is our drought is finally gone.  We have come a very long way from late last summer when fires were burning.  

 

We dont need or want anymore rain rain but I guess a little is ok.  I just hope a little doesn't turn into a TC. 

12Z CMC says congrats GA, the CMC has been pretty steadfast in this track for a few days now.....but its the CMC and it kinda sucks with TC development and track sooooooo...GFS and Euro have it further west into Mexico or Texas.....though the GFS has been taking it to where the CMC has it on previous runs....still a ways out but the overall setup and pattern does support TC development in the GOM so its wait and see time....

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Don't see any 90's forecasted here now for the week like earlier.Next 5 days:

87

88

89

89

86

Could touch 90 easily but should get a cold front/trof knocking on the door by day 6.Ridge is weakening and moving east,T-storms should increase gradually every day.

 

[Cold Rain]

On 6/11/2017 at 8:13 AM, Solak said:

I love dramatic headlines!

Tens of millions will roast in first major U.S. heat wave of the season

http://mashable.com/2017/06/09/june-heat-wave-hits-millions/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link#zpIpkhx3w8qD

I suppose it could be rewritten:

Tens of millions will enjoy Summertime weather as we head toward the end of June

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

5 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I suppose it could be rewritten:

Tens of millions will enjoy Summertime weather as we head toward the end of June

I think that one is more realistic.... just remember, common stories don't sell papers.

[Cold Rain]

Millions Bake As Scorching Heat and Searing Drought Destroy Crops and Drain Reservoirs In the Southeast

Says long-time South Carolina native, jshetley, "We've not seen anything like this in our lifetime.  After June concludes with it's record-breaking string of 140F days, we're likely not to see a green leaf anywhere."  Meanwhile, just down the road into North Carolina, jburns' weed lawn has brought forth one of it's most robust crops in recent memory.  For images of the extreme heat and dryness, see below:

 

[mackerel_sky]

26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Millions Bake As Scorching Heat and Searing Drought Destroy Crops and Drain Reservoirs In the Southeast

Says long-time South Carolina native, jshetley, "We've not seen anything like this in our lifetime.  After June concludes with it's record-breaking string of 140F days, we're likely not to see a green leaf anywhere."  Meanwhile, just down the road into North Carolina, jburns' weed lawn has brought forth one of it's most robust crops in recent memory.  For images of the extreme heat and dryness, see below:

 

Good god! At that heat and drought!