Rankin5150 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, it was very euro like. Still a CAD signature but definitely not a classic CAD Miller B low transferring to the coast. I hate the low transferring to the coast storms. Someone ALWAYS get hit with the DRYSLOT. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Man H5 already looks way different out west at 84. This is crazy to have a different op outlook every run. Taller ridge? Better? What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Taller ridge? Better? What Unsure yet. Want to let the run play out before I commit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 @mackerel_sky my guess looks like suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: @mackerel_sky my guess looks like suppression city. Perfect right now! We all figured there could even be a more southerly teen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The high seems to be getting weaker on latest runs! Only a 1040 dropping into the plains on the 12z, hopefully, it won't matter much 1040 should be fine and more realistic. A few days ago at least one model was showing a 1070. I don't think they even exist! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Perfect right now! We all figured there could even be a more southerly teen! Meager precip output at 108. Almost nothing on the map other than coastal LA. It’s miller A’ish compared to anything like a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Meager precip output at 108. Almost nothing on the map other than coastal LA. It’s miller A’ish compared to anything like a miller B I prefer the Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Cold a little deeper then last run on GFS but the system is suppressed badly. HR 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Its finally showing reaction to the HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 A blind man could have seen this coming a mile away. Too much of a good thing with the suppressed flow. However, my guess is the GFS will show a more pronounced system for Sat-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: A blind man could have seen this coming a mile away. Too much of a good thing with the suppressed flow. However, my guess is the GFS will show a more pronounced system for Sat-Sun. Yep , you can see moisture pooling in TX, a wave coming down the Rockies, 1050 high droppin in, this could be the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here you go @Orangeburgwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I don't mind the look GFS is offering. For us far east...we want to see a flatter, more suppressed wave at this time frame. It's a given it will trend more amped and more NW. It's gearing up for a nice one at hr 186 lol so we still have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At 186, bout to go boom in the next few frames! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Only 10 days away! Again! We'll stop falling for these one day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It's gonna be snowy in the Carolinas, could be a long duration event! Moving slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Only 10 days away! Again! We'll stop falling for these one day... Only 8, and would be getting organized at 5-7 day timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It's gonna be snowy in the Carolinas, could be a long duration event! Moving slowly Meh, gets squashed, but a great look at this lead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It's gonna be snowy in the Carolinas, could be a long duration event! Moving slowly Seems like I remember hearing this...oh about 12 hours ago regarding storm #1. Maybe Phil will get some snow in Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Here you go @Orangeburgwx oh h e double hockey sticks no! I prefer to have lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 A big hit from CMC and suppressed from GFS is exactly what you want right now. This is a perfect set up for big SE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I’m on the snow side of the line... midnight snowfall I will take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I wouldn’t put much stock in the suppressed GFS solution for now, especially with CMC, UK and Euro coming into agreement. The GFS struggles mightily with phasing and precip, remember the early December snow that it was so suppressed with compared with the CMC and UK? I’ll go with the models with the hot hand. CMC has been more consistent while GFS has been from a super amped cutter to suppressed into nothingness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS squashes the wave but I do like the setup for New year's. Baffin block keeping heights low off New England to keep the cold high in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure? Again, not being disrespectful. I kinda have the same problem. The last night 0z GFS and Canadian gave me (in North TX) a nice ice storm next week. But both showing nothing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If you have been catching any of my videos for the past couple of weeks, I’ve been hitting this period in the days following Christmas into the first week of 2018 as loaded with potential. Over the past week, I was saying 2 potential time periods....one later next week and one Jan 3-5. This was all due to pattern recognition. In my opinion, that’s exactly where we still are. It’s a pattern where many of the players necessary for a Southeast winter storm or two are on the playing field. How will it all play out? Time will tell, but don’t hang emotions on every single model run. Finally, some complaining about it being a matter of timing. It’s always a matter of timing around here! This isn’t Buffalo. Bottom line, I’m excited about the pattern and feel pretty good this will work in some way for a lot of folks over the next two weeks. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Expect something big on the Euro, GFS showing its northern stream dominance at this point causing the suppression. Cold and dry, however, is probably our biggest worry with this type set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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