franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Am I not allowed to be excited!? I've wasted 3 years for this, time to let the weenie out! Over a ten day storm on the 18z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Over a ten day storm on the 18z gfs? it is called wishcasting for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Over a ten day storm on the 18z gfs? No , I'm excited about the 5-6 day storm on 18z, ecstatic about the 10 day possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Pretty amazing look on the ensembles hard to identify one hour to compare because the storms are flowing consecutively, some monsters in there, id feel great in the MA and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No , I'm excited about the 5-6 day storm on 18z, ecstatic about the 10 day possibility! It is not everyday in winter that we have so many possibilities at or inside of 10 days. Let him show his excitement and I will do the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Snovary said: Pretty amazing look on the ensembles hard to identify one hour to compare because the storms are flowing consecutively, some monsters in there, id feel great in the MA and NE what do they look like this time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I hope I'm not jinxing things by saying this but usually my area does well in strong wedges, so to go from an 8" snowstorm to a possible icestorm in about 3ish weeks time would be incredible!Exactly! Much of Kennesaw area was pounded with snow! Is this Georgia or Michigan? Lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yes, a good run, but there is a lot to sort out yet. Pretty confident of some sort of winter weather in the Southeast but there will be MANY twists and turns with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 26 minutes ago, burrel2 said: GFS modeled surface temps in this set up are useless. Look at the surface pressure map, and mid-level temps. Going off those maps... this would be ice for the cities I mentioned, 100% guarantee'd. IF we get the CAD high in the right spot, temps will be 5-10 degrees colder than forecast for sure. I have saw it too many times. For example a couple years ago we had rain in our forecast with temps no lower than 34-36. What we got was mostly sleet with temps in the upper 20's. An even more stark example comes from 1987 when we had rain in the forecast in the GSP metro with temps in the mid 30's. We got sleet from that with the temp going all the way down to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, jshetley said: IF we get the CAD high in the right spot, temps will be 5-10 degrees colder than forecast for sure. I have saw it too many times. For example a couple years ago we had rain in our forecast with temps no lower than 34-36. What we got was mostly sleet with temps in the upper 20's. An even more stark example comes from 1987 when we had rain in the forecast in the GSP metro with temps in the mid 30's. We got sleet from that with the temp going all the way down to 24. I wonder how "new to town" forecasters get trained to handle and forecast the wedge, because they can't go on "gut" reactions, if they've never experienced it before. I can almost assure you that on both thursday and friday I won't get out of the 30s, yet my forecast has me in the mid 40s both days; I possibly won't even come close to hitting those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said: Yes, a good run, but there is a lot to sort out yet. Pretty confident of some sort of winter weather in the Southeast but there will be MANY twists and turns with each model run. I agree sir. The real caveat to everything is where the primary transfers. Could have major implications naturally on precip types. Everything else looks to be checked off in other fields. STJ connection from Baja, monster sprawling HP supplying the super cold. Even if it does transfer in WV, it would still be a winter threat in ice form. This upcoming pattern is the best I can remember in a long time. I remember when I lived in Connecticut still back in 2010/2011, we just got slaughtered with a parade of storms and ended up with record breaking snow amounts that year. Folks should be pumped up for this upcoming period. I would really like to see the Euro come back around again at 0z to this possibility. Seems like the GFS has come around to the CMC/NAVGEM in this respect of a solid overrunning event. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Feeling good for some snow. Missed out because of work, but willing to book a hotel in Boone next week. Desperation!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I usually only post in the obs forum here. But I can say from personal experience that not only do the models “under do” CAD... so do the local on-air Mets as well as the RAH nws... at least when it concerns the areas north and west of GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 By my count 17 of the 20 GFS ensemble members on Cod weather gives Upstate SC a major ice storm inside of 240hrs. The other 3 models runs are close to a hit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: By my count 17 of the 20 GFS ensemble members on Cod weather gives Upstate SC a major ice storm inside of 240hrs. The other 3 models runs are close to a hit as well. Thats hella good consensus that cad favored areas are in for some fun time next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: By my count 17 of the 20 GFS ensemble members on Cod weather gives Upstate SC a major ice storm inside of 240hrs. The other 3 models runs are close to a hit as well. what about the SC lowcountry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: what about the SC lowcountry? CAD always has tricks up its sleeve. I wouldn't count you or North GA out, not this far in advance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, CummingGaSnow said: It is not everyday in winter that we have so many possibilities at or inside of 10 days. Let him show his excitement and I will do the same! The only problem for me is that the excitement turns to despair when things flip and the SER rears it's ugly head again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The only problem for me is that the excitement turns to despair when things flip and the SER rears it's ugly head again. We don't talk like that around here. We cling to blue models only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Still think the Triad only eeks out a little snow TV before ZR/IP for duration. Just a hunch. Maybe back end flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: what about the SC lowcountry? The SC Lowcountry has a jaw dropping 18 members out of 20 on the GFS ensembles showing something, with some monster hits included. You won't see that very often. Strong signals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Dont see this very often.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Temps really fall out the night of the 27th for several days. Impressive cold coming if this verifies. Maybe a solid week in the 30s/20s for the triad and much of NC. So whatever falls likely stays. Hope it isnt ZR. Local WU forecast now shows 4" for the triad on the 29th/30th. At least we made it inside of 10 days.....progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 37 minutes ago, burrel2 said: By my count 17 of the 20 GFS ensemble members on Cod weather gives Upstate SC a major ice storm inside of 240hrs. The other 3 models runs are close to a hit as well. I'm hoping we get sleet instead of ice. It's not going to be plain old rain IF that CAD high is there. Of course a lot of things can change in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, jshetley said: I'm hoping we get sleet instead of ice. It's not going to be plain old rain IF that CAD high is there. Of course a lot of things can change in 7 days. In the 2002 event, I wasn't supposed to get any sleet, it was supporting be all ZR, I had about an inch of sleet , with ZR. It would be nice to get a 2-3" crust of ZR and IP, to go with the cold to follow and hopefully, another storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, jshetley said: I'm hoping we get sleet instead of ice. It's not going to be plain old rain IF that CAD high is there. Of course a lot of things can change in 7 days. Shetley sighting. Hope you got the generator running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: Feeling good for some snow. Missed out because of work, but willing to book a hotel in Boone next week. Desperation!! That's where you will probably need to go to see snow from this storm. We have the coldest air on the earth coming our way and we still can't get any snow out of it. Freezing rain and power outages are for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: In the 2002 event, I wasn't supposed to get any sleet, it was supporting be all ZR, I had about an inch of sleet , with ZR. It would be nice to get a 2-3" crust of ZR and IP, to go with the cold to follow and hopefully, another storm! That 2002 storm cut our power off for 2 days. We did not get much sleet over here. It was basically all ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, jshetley said: That 2002 storm cut our power off for 2 days. We did not get much sleet over here. It was basically all ZR. It's often a sharp line between p types! I remember going up to Gastonia a few weeks later and there were still huge piles of snow/sleet in the mall parking lots! I think they had 2-3 hours of snow, before going over to sleet. The thing that stands out was the way the cold locked in! I remember it being 30/31 all morning, and holding, the precip starting a little past noon, and temps getting down to 26/27 by nightfall and holding all night! Worst ice storm I ever experienced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 RAH has some positive wording in their afternoon discussion: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 312 PM Friday... Sunday: Precipitation will linger in the east as a frontal system continues to push offshore but by afternoon much of the forecast area except locations east of I-95 should be drying out. Cooler temps but still expecting 50-60 degrees for high temperatures during the afternoon. With the earlier clearing, expect lower low temperatures as the cold air filters in. Near freezing in the Triad to about 40 degrees in the southeast. Christmas Day: With earlier onset of cold air advection, high temperatures on Monday will be colder than originally expected. Now expecting low 40s across the Triad with upper 40s across the south. Expect clearing of skies and dry weather throughout the day. Lows dropping well below freezing Christmas night across the forecast area. Mid to upper 20s expected. Midweek will be cool and dry with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday and then a dry cold front will come through to reinforce the colder air on Thursday leading to highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows during this time in the upper 20s to low 30s. Things start to look much more interesting as far as the potential for some winter weather are concerned Thursday night into Friday as a low pressure system develops off of the Carolina coast and heads northward. Very little confidence in the forecast models this far out even with pattern recognition and especially with P-Type so will say little at this point other than the potential is there and it will be worth following over the course of the next week to see how the forecast evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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