mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: And don't forget the vodka cold afterwards! That should make for fun fireworks displays outside! Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS may be correct but it lifts the big low out of SE Canada quicker then the EPS/Euro. What a delicate balance this is for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: GFS may be correct but it lifts the big low out of SE Canada quicker then the EPS/Euro. What a delicate balance this is for us. I think we see lots more solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I’d rather have rain than freezing rain... Nothing fun about an ice storm living under a bunch of 80+ foot tall oak trees. Plus I’d like to have power on the 1st for the Rose Bowl. Hoping for enough cold for at least a sleet fest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Fantasy range brings a powerful miller a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Man what a GFS run that was... I haven't seen runs spit out like this since the winter of 2010/2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Lol... it had this for the same time on the 12z run. I wouldn't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 46 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Mamacita!!! That depiction would send crippling ice down to Columbia/Macon/Atanta, heck maybe even Birmingham,AL. According to that top image GSP as well though probably be more sleet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 18z maybe one of the greatest model runs I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 38 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cue WOW and or Grit and or Lookout, and or Snowgoose, to be voices of reason or join the celebration! Not home right now but just glancing at things..looks mighty wintery for cad areas pretty soon and maybe for an extended time. 17 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Man what a GFS run that was... I haven't seen runs spit out like this since the winter of 2010/2011. Lol...yeah that run is something else and in general pretty encouraging trends for fans of everything that isn't cold rain. The lack of overall consistency among all the models and questions around over all totals is really what is keeping my excitement down a bit though..but no denying the potential. I'm hoping these wedges can be strong enough to reach areas hit hard by the snowstorm around atlanta because it would make for a truly memorable and special winter..one that is rarely scene in ga. Imagining some areas of georgia getting 6 to 12 inches of snow followed by not one but maybe several other winter storms in the following weeks is really incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Seeing 5” mean from CLT to the triad on the 18z GEFS through day 8. Got that Feb 2014 look. Snow mean extends much further south. 2” to ATL and CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Even with all the potential, it's still going to be hard to top what GA and AL saw 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Seeing 5” mean from CLT to the triad on the 18z GEFS through day 8. Got that Feb 2014 look. Snow mean extends much further south. 2” to ATL and CAE. The Feb 14 storm was stupid and sucked down here! I hope I never see anything like that dumpster fire again! 2" of sleet! After being modeled by euro to get 20" a day out! I'd love a good ice storm , like modeled on the 18z GFS, if I know that's the best I can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The Feb 14 storm was stupid and sucked down here! I hope I never see anything like that dumpster fire again! 2" of sleet! After being modeled by euro to get 20" a day out! I'd love a good ice storm , like modeled on the 18z GFS, if I know that's the best I can get! Well if a model is printing out 10”+ for us then we know that will be ice with this potential event. Anything amped we will be sleet/frzn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Mamacita!!! That depiction would send crippling ice down to Columbia/Macon/Atanta, heck maybe even Birmingham,AL. How do you figure? To my eyes it shows Macon and Atlanta in the mid 30s or so and Birmingham in the mid 40s. Even my area 40 miles N of ATL is borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ouch!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I am at a loss of words for this setup. The back and forth constant blood pressure rises is going to induce a heart attack. I know the GFS is known to lose storms at some point, but does it have any support with this? I think someone said earlier the Canadian had a good overrunning setup showing for the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said: How do you figure? To my eyes it shows Macon and Atlanta in the mid 30s or so and Birmingham in the mid 40s. Even my area 40 miles N of ATL is borderline. GFS modeled surface temps in this set up are useless. Look at the surface pressure map, and mid-level temps. Going off those maps... this would be ice for the cities I mentioned, 100% guarantee'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... it had this for the same time on the 12z run. I wouldn't get too excited. Exactly! I would be extremely weary of any solution this far out. People forget that the GFS was horrible in the early December snow storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Man, that Jan 4/5th storm( yeah, I know) !!! You couldn't draw up a better snowstorm!! That's the track that could give me a foot of fantasy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Exactly! I would be extremely weary of any solution this far out. People forget that the GFS was horrible in the early December snow storm... This excitement here is due to the wide goal posts we have for a winter storm next week. Lots of possible scenario's being spit out that give us a winter storm. We don't necessarily have to thread a needle this time. If you look at all the ensemble members, the majority of them are giving some type of CAD winter storm over that 3 day stretch, even if they are arriving at that storm in different ways. IE-first wave is suppressed but the next wave delivers the goods, or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Exactly! I would be extremely weary of any solution this far out. People forget that the GFS was horrible in the early December snow storm... Most of the other models show this as a light overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: GFS modeled surface temps in this set up are useless. Look at the surface pressure map, and mid-level temps. Going off those maps... this would be ice for the cities I mentioned, 100% guarantee'd. Gotcha. I was wondering where you were getting that from. My local news has highs in the mid to upper 40s wed through friday with rain and even mentioned we would be in a wedge. That really is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Anyone posted ensembles? They look as good and or support the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Man, that Jan 4/5th storm( yeah, I know) !!! You couldn't draw up a better snowstorm!! That's the track that could give me a foot of fantasy snow! Calm yourself Iago. Give it a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 what is the means for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Calm yourself Iago. Give it a couple more days. Am I not allowed to be excited!? I've wasted 3 years for this, time to let the weenie out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, Lookout said: Not home right now but just glancing at things..looks mighty wintery for cad areas pretty soon and maybe for an extended time. Lol...yeah that run is something else and in general pretty encouraging trends for fans of everything that isn't cold rain. The lack of overall consistency among all the models and questions around over all totals is really what is keeping my excitement down a bit though..but no denying the potential. I'm hoping these wedges can be strong enough to reach areas hit hard by the snowstorm around atlanta because it would make for a truly memorable and special winter..one that is rarely scene in ga. Imagining some areas of georgia getting 6 to 12 inches of snow followed by not one but maybe several other winter storms in the following weeks is really incredible. I hope I'm not jinxing things by saying this but usually my area does well in strong wedges, so to go from an 8" snowstorm to a possible icestorm in about 3ish weeks time would be incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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