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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think those cold temps are a little exaggerated.  But regardless, it will be COLD!  coldest air of the season for most.

It may be the coldest air-mass of the winter. What a difference a day makes in the weather model world. Now, get the Euro on board with that cold, and we might be in business. 

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16 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It may be the coldest air-mass of the winter. What a difference a day makes in the weather model world. Now, get the Euro on board with that cold, and we might be in business. 

No doubt man. Crazy roller coaster over the last few days. One would assume at some point some sort of agreement would present itself. 

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Robert just posted on FB

 

WxSouth
3 mins · 

I covered a lot of meteorological ground in tonight's update at the blog. Short, medium range and even speculated into mid January, on a variety of topics. Where models have missed things so far, and how the upcoming various indices are likely to be off, once again. I was taking issue with the warm/dry Southeast outlooks that were issued in November, and there's no change there--more snow and ice is almost a certainty in our future as we go through Christmas Day and especially going toward the New year and into January , as a whole host of features is in favor of such. Blocking, extreme ridging up north, strong Arctic Highs pressing south, split flow eventually undercutting the Cold air, the MJO entering and dying in Phase 8, repeated flux attacks on the Polar Vortex, weakening it and allowing cold air to repeatedly come very far south the next few weeks. This is nothing like the last 2 Boring Winters. The devil is in the details though, and still that Christmas Eve/Day storm has a few tricks up it's sleeve for snow in Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi to Arkansas. I won't rule out a slightly further east track, east of the Apps either, with change to snow on East Coast. 
Right now, I wouldn't focus on the single model runs, but the overall pattern for an extended time frame--it looks active and very Winter-like with several big ticket items on the map for weeks to come.
If you'd like to join the wxsouth weather blog, simply send me your city, state and email. The cost is less than a meal nowadays and I put in a lot of posts in various categories. As a Degreed Meteorologist, I put forth a lot of info and unique discussions, and weather mapping analytics on how I think the weather will impact your lifestyle. Good weather info for business owners who are impacted by weather. I blend hard core Meteorological Science with the art of overarching philosophy of Synoptic Meteorology into what I hope is a nice read on weather events, big and small.
Image: The North American Weather map looks colorful and busy going forward.

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro weeklies have above normal temperatures after the first week in Jan...cold anomalies after the first week in Jan are relegated to Alaska or the Pacific Northwest

Probably just a lag in cold, and won't warm as fast. The warm always seems to last longer, when we look at /for cold in the weeklies 

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

00z GFS coming in is cold, but doesn't look as cold as the 18z run.  Canadian on the other hand is an ice box.  Colder than its last run.  At hour 201 it has a 1070mb high in Montana.  From Dec 25-28, the 850 0 deg runs from southern GA to east TX and stays there

It’s so dang cold, it might squash that storm over south Texas.

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