Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Pack, we need @StormchaserChuckto roll up in here and tell us about the Strat PV! Cause that aint pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Pack, we need @StormchaserChuckto roll up in here and tell us about the Strat PV! Cause that aint pretty. LOL...I deleted that post...I hate having to rely on the strat for help. Seems like a once in a 20 year phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 It's currently a +warm 3-wavelength pattern around Stratosphere PV that was November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 ^ Thanks, Chuck! Just looked at the latest GFS run. I've seen much worse. Yeah, the ridge pops up for a few days, but it looks like it gets shoved back down shortly after. There are various opportunities for snow and ice, although the model isn't showing a major storm this run. I thought it was going to look like some unmitigated disaster. The runs the other day were much worse. You guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flood gates are open for +heights to flood into Greenland every day it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: Flood gates are open for +heights to flood into Greenland every day it seems. Greenland has apparently raised shields! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 My point is, with this happening and awesome Stratosphere warming through December on models the -NAO could be extreme this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: My point is, with this tendency and awesome Stratosphere warming happening through December, the -NAO could be extreme this Winter. Yeah man...it was just a little 96 hour GFS banter. Hopefully, that pans out and we the the storm track suppressed. If that happens and we keep the tendency for the -EPO, we'll be in really good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Why the GFS gets nicknamed the Yo Yo model: from MA thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah man...it was just a little 96 hour GFS banter. Hopefully, that pans out and we the the storm track suppressed. If that happens and we keep the tendency for the -EPO, we'll be in really good shape. Euro will save us!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro will save us!? Well... there's precip and a wedge on the 12z. No Dice tho, not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro will save us!? Ummm, not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro will save us!? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Nice Good Ole Fashioned Traditional Christmas: upper 30s and Cold Rain: See if EPS keeps its step down colder trend up: Good news is the SER is getting beat futher and futher down each cycle: Only jabs and no knock out Blow. But Torchmas is seeming less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Nice Good Ole Fashioned Traditional Christmas: upper 30s and Cold Rain: See if EPS keeps its step down colder trend up: Good news is the SER is getting beat futher and futher down each cycle: Only jabs and no knock out Blow. But Torchmas is seeming less and less likely. jab after jab to the SER is wearing it down, it is only a matter of time before it gets TKO’ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Why the GFS gets nicknamed the Yo Yo model: from MA thread Is that the Yo-Yo MA forum? They normally favor a classical approach to meteorology with occasional dalliances into the eclectic.Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 awesome calc! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Nice Good Ole Fashioned Traditional Christmas: upper 30s and Cold Rain: See if EPS keeps its step down colder trend up: Good news is the SER is getting beat futher and futher down each cycle: Only jabs and no knock out Blow. But Torchmas is seeming less and less likely. Still time to go either way, with temps!! Santa likes it ICY............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, calculus1 said: Is that the Yo-Yo MA forum? They normally favor a classical approach to meteorology with occasional dalliances into the eclectic. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk I remember the day Yo-Yo-Ma was walking down the street in the hood and ran into two brothers. One he knew and one he didn't. The conversation went like this. 1st dude: Yo, Yo-Yo! Yo-Yo: Yo. 2nd dude: Yo-Yo? 1st dude: Yo, Yo-Yo. 2nd dude: Yo, Yo-Yo. Yo-Yo: Yo You don't want to hear the conversation the day they all brought their Duncan's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I heard from a little bird the EPS looked good for some wintry action in the Carolinas as we approach the new year. Any truth to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Downward trend on temps for Raleigh by end of EPS...hopefully that keeps plummeting to start the new year. RAH is -1.5F through 14 days of Dec. We look to be slightly BN the next couple of days and then we have a week where are looking at +10F departures. If the EPS/GEFS is correct then RAH will be roughly +2F through Dec 25th. We would need some serious cold the last week of December to get BN for the month. There's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I dunno about Christmas week but I swear it feels like it could snow at any minute here in the Triad. It feels colder than our snow event last week. Brrrr!! Nobody wants a torchmas like Pack just posted so lets hope the trends remain our friend as we head inside of the 240 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 25 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I dunno about Christmas week but I swear it feels like it could snow at any minute here in the Triad. It feels colder than our snow event last week. Brrrr!! Nobody wants a torchmas like Pack just posted so lets hope the trends remain our friend as we head inside of the 240 mark. I was just going to say, this is one of the colder Decembers in my recent memory. We (I) stay caught up on future weather and disregard the fact that it actually feels like December outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 18z GFS a little colder for Christmas, but not as promising past Christmas (...still not bad though). I would personally take this but I would rather have something that affects more of the SE folks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Downward trend on temps for Raleigh by end of EPS...hopefully that keeps plummeting to start the new year. RAH is -1.5F through 14 days of Dec. We look to be slightly BN the next couple of days and then we have a week where are looking at +10F departures. If the EPS/GEFS is correct then RAH will be roughly +2F through Dec 25th. We would need some serious cold the last week of December to get BN for the month. There's a chance. I am honestly surprised that we are only 1.5 F below normal . Seems like it has been pretty chilly this December. Seems almost impossible to get a solidly BN winter month these days. Could be worse though. Remember 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 10 hrs · Dreaming of snow on December 25? Well, here's the latest 8-14 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. If a system brings moisture to the Southeast, it would fall as all rain as temperatures are forecast to be above normal. GSP seems awfully confident in only rain... I wonder if they are as confident about that as they were about the mountains only getting an inch of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: jab after jab to the SER is wearing it down, it is only a matter of time before it gets TKO’ed Nope. My opinion it goes nowhere even with the huge negative EPO. PNA looks neutral at best so cold centers on southern plains. Need the PNA positive or NAO negative (which I've given up on a negative NAO) to benefit in the Carolina's or Georgia. We may can time a cad and get ice but imo a snowstorm is out for the remainder of 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Nope. My opinion it goes nowhere even with the huge negative EPO. PNA looks neutral at best so cold centers on southern plains. Need the PNA positive or NAO negative (which I've given up on a negative NAO) to benefit in the Carolina's or Georgia. We may can time a cad and get ice but imo a snowstorm is out for the remainder of 2017. I'm afraid this map is accurate with the what the tellies show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 This is the one year I want a warm Christmas for here since I'll be in Houston at the time. January is looking pretty good, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I’m starting to feel pretty strongly that we will see a winter storm between 12/24 and 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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