Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[CaryWx]

7 minutes ago, nam0806 said:

I don’t pick up on sarcasm well, especially on the Internet. 

Still valid points regardless.

Then again he could be dead serious.  Seems hung up on that frisbee/disc Christmas golf and all lately.

[Orangeburgwx]

00z GFS out to 120hrs, looks warmer here but cooler in the West (Rocky Mountain region) compared to the last run

[Jonathan]

28 minutes ago, nam0806 said:

To say this in absolute terms is ridiculous.

With model to model discrepancy and the changes from run to run, I wouldn’t be so sure, at least yet.

Id have to see a little more consistency and a little more consensus before speaking in such absolute terms.

Im not saying I agree with you or disagree, just let’s wait a bit before making such declarations, especially with less than ideal consensus. Remember, this is still days away, and things can (and inevitably) will change. 

What I said about the ensembles is, as of today, "absolutely" true. But yes, of course differing solutions will pop up between now and then. I'm just not banking on a wall to wall cold, stormy December. We really need the -EPO, -QBO and +TNH to drive the pattern, not the Nina. Not to mention the MJO looks to go into the cold zones 8-1. I guess that means there's at least a possibility we stay cool for awhile, but I think we all know deep inside it's "due" to get warm soon based on recent history.

 

18 minutes ago, nam0806 said:

I don’t pick up on sarcasm well, especially on the Internet. 

Still valid points regardless.

First part was sarcasm, yes.

 

4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Then again he could be dead serious.  Seems hung up on that frisbee/disc Christmas golf and all lately.

No no, that's pack. I play "real" golf...although I've always wanted to try disc golf.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Ice storm less likely. Models at 500mb are mirroring 10mb Stratospheric warming, in closer term it will likely be +PNA / -NAO, snowstorm setup because that is how these things trend. 

[Orangeburgwx]

No event... seems the 18z dipped into the eggnog 

 

 

but I would rather have that than an ice storm

[vwgrrc]

Looks like DFW metro gets hammered around Christmas. But it's too far away to say now  

[WarmNose]

18z vs 0z GFS..6 hours later and the SER is back with a vengeance 

[Orangeburgwx]

17 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

18z vs 0z GFS..6 hours later and the SER is back with a vengeance 

Yeah, I noticed that too, once I saw it develope I knew we were toast... hopefully it disappears at 6z and we all get some snow

[mackerel_sky]

Warm SE ridge , still there on 6z, ugggggh

[franklin NCwx]

Ensembles look brutal.  Hawaiian Christmas on the way

[PackGrad05]

I was getting ready to post that the GFS op didn't have much ensemble support...  still looks cold (colder) on the ensembles.

[Orangeburgwx]

All we can do is sit back and watch, we really won’t start seeing the true dynamics until tomorrow (when Christmas is inside 240hrs). There is still a lot of time and a lot can change

[NCSNOW]

I'm afraid December is gonna mock November. AN 1st and last week of month. Still will average out BN ,Normal at worst.. But the rythym of the pattern is hard to ignore. Hope we aren't AN for hollidays for 3rd year in a row. Ensembles will tell the tale. Don't like the trend on EPS last couple runs. See how it shakes out next few days. 

And let's all hope this weak la Nina doesnt become driver of pattern. If so, that usually doesn't bode well 2cnd half winter ,unless you get the wildcard EPO to pull a rabit out of hat and save the day.

[Orangeburgwx]

13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I'm afraid December is gonna mock November. AN 1st and last week of month. Still will average out BN ,Normal at worst.. But the rythym of the pattern is hard to ignore. Hope we aren't AN for hollidays for 3rd year in a row. Ensembles will tell the tale. Don't like the trend on EPS last couple runs. See how it shakes out next few days. 

And let's all hope this weak la Nina doesnt become driver of pattern. If so, that usually doesn't bode well 2cnd half winter ,unless you get the wildcard EPO to pull a rabit out of hat and save the day.

yeah... but what are the chances of that happening, I think this is going to be a bust

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

I'm afraid December is gonna mock November. AN 1st and last week of month. Still will average out BN ,Normal at worst.. But the rythym of the pattern is hard to ignore. Hope we aren't AN for hollidays for 3rd year in a row. Ensembles will tell the tale. Don't like the trend on EPS last couple runs. See how it shakes out next few days. 

And let's all hope this weak la Nina doesnt become driver of pattern. If so, that usually doesn't bode well 2cnd half winter ,unless you get the wildcard EPO to pull a rabit out of hat and save the day.

I don't think we, NC/SC/GA will average BN for December, EPS/GEFS solidly agree that we are AN starting this Saturday for atleast the 10 days following.   This is what GEFS thinks we are at a week from now (thanks for the link Grit).

I will have to look but I can't recall a solid weak, approaching mod nina, that was BN in February.  Let's hope January we can keep the -EPO going and mute that SE ridge.

[packbacker]

These nina Dec's had a -EPO with strong SE ridge...rolled forward into January it turned out nice.  85 skews things a bit but still.

[FLweather]

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

I was getting ready to post that the GFS op didn't have much ensemble support...  still looks cold (colder) on the ensembles.

Just looking at the operationals models compared to the 5 day mean anomalies.  Hard to say if there is much support for  SE ridge with the huge anomalies. Shows pretty much a zonal flow. Depending on which side of the shortwave troughs you are on. Don't think we will see huge flucations in temps.  Near normal to slightly BN till Christmas at least. Maybe a day or two above normal aka Indian summer  No major ridge or torch I don't think.  

[Cold Rain]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Ice storm less likely. Models at 500mb are mirroring 10mb Stratospheric warming, in closer term it will likely be +PNA / -NAO, snowstorm setup because that is how these things trend. 

Chuck hitting the eggnog early this year!   Hope you're right, sir.  Thanks for stopping by!

[Orangeburgwx]

Is it just me, or did the SER look a little weaker in the 06z run compared to 00z?

[PackGrad05]

I'm not buying the SE ridge for the southeast yet...  I think we will see that trend more and more weaker.  Or at least a compromise of the last 2 days solutions.

[NCSNOW]

I'm highly confident at a minimum we will get another 10 to 14 day stretch, most likely in January to score a few times. That January 2000 ten day stretch comes to mind. It was a la nina. Not saying well get a crusher, but a lengthy 2 week window to pop the champagne on more than one occasion from overruning events. It would be blind squirell luck to get a NS energy to drop into left over boundry and phase like crusher, but those where some nice hits before and after that big storm. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm not buying the SE ridge for the southeast yet...  I think we will see that trend more and more weaker.  Or at least a compromise of the last 2 days solutions.

Hope you are right. 

[NCSNOW]

RDU is -1.6 for December  and GSO -1. Will have another BN day today to pile on. Still beleive both end up BN, worst Normal for December

[Cold Rain]

Index Update:

[packbacker]

Well you would think at the least we would cool down for a day or two after a big conus cutter...we got that to look forward to I guess.

Plus, it's not easy to go this many winter (DJF) months in a row of AN temp departures, something has to give eventually.  This has the chance to be the 7th Dec in a row of AN temp departures.   That's got to be a record.

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Well you would think at the least we would cool down for a day or two after a big conus cutter...we got that to look forward to I guess.

Plus, it's not easy to go this many winter (DJF) months in a row of AN temp departures, something has to give eventually.  This has the chance to be the 7th Dec in a row of AN temp departures.   That's got to be a record.

We need some stratosphere and solar and QBO updates while we’re waiting.

I wish NC_Hailstorm would come in here and tell us what’s up, but he’s nowhere to be found!

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We need some stratosphere and solar and QBO updates while we’re waiting.

We need the strat, QBO and a recurving typhoon to save this mess.

Quickly looked...since winter 2015 we have had 1 BN winter month, 1 neutral and 7 AN, well AN in most cases.  Law of averages say we should be cold with a 10" snow pack in Jan/Feb.

I think the next decade we see this flip...

[Tacoma]

Looks like we'll have to wait til January to get another chance at seeing snow again.  Next 10 days looking to warm even in the mtns.   Maybe we'll get a New Years Eve/Day storm to enjoy while we're watching some good college football.  Roll Tide. 

[NC DataDude]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I think I've seen it listed before, but is there a good reference page to get the theoretical "sweet spot" for the SE when looking at the indexes? I see where Cold Rain lists the picts but sometimes I'm not sure if the picts are positive or negative. LOL! 

[HKY_WX]

29 minutes ago, packbacker said:

We need the strat, QBO and a recurving typhoon to save this mess.

Quickly looked...since winter 2015 we have had 1 BN winter month, 1 neutral and 7 AN, well AN in most cases.  Law of averages say we should be cold with a 10" snow pack in Jan/Feb.

I think the next decade we see this flip...

I'm banking on the next maunder minimum lol. I'm hoping the correlation b/n the last sunspot long-term min and colder winters bears fruit again in the 2020's and 2030's.