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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Well the 12z GFS stays consistent with its warm Christmas. We get a healthy looking Bermuda high which actually retrogrades westward in the next frames pushing the cold back westward (amazing look):

 

 

aaaa.jpg

If this map doesn't make you sick to your stomach, you are not a fan of winter weather. North Texas with negative temperatures while southeast Texas sits around 70 degrees. Unreal 

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

pack,  Looks like FROPA around then it might seem??  At this range we could have a 'warm' day in advance occur anytime over several days spanning the 25th.  That may not be what is locked down yet perhaps? 

Yep cold and warm shots...it could be warm, cutter, then cold...then repeat.  But, cutter to a 50/50 with a trailing wave would be nice.  It’s not as bad as last winter that’s for sure...knock on wood.  

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Too bad Euro doesn't go out 15 days, so we can verify this torch! Models can't get wintry weather right 3 days out, but nail a Packbacker death ridge at 16 days out! :(

EPS goes out to 15.  Think of the EPS Control as the GFS post D10.  It'll be ready for viewing shortly!

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Seeing as how most of us get our snow events at 32 degrees (37 degrees for me last week:mellow:) I think it's safe to say cold doesn't always equal snow around here. Need some moisture to go boom somewhere in the gulf and run into some cold air east of those pesky Appalachian mountains. It's been a while since we had ice. Might be one of those years with all that warm air just off the east/ southeast coast that's being modeled

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10 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Seeing as how most of us get our snow events at 32 degrees (37 degrees for me last week:mellow:) I think it's safe to say cold doesn't always equal snow around here. Need some moisture to go boom somewhere in the gulf and run into some cold air east of those pesky Appalachian mountains. It's been a while since we had ice. Might be one of those years with all that warm air just off the east/ southeast coast that's being modeled

I would agree but that would make me a CAD.

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Too bad Euro doesn't go out 15 days, so we can verify this torch! Models can't get wintry weather right 3 days out, but nail a Packbacker death ridge at 16 days out! :(

Come on Mack, you of all people know better than to trust the 300+ GFS. Guarantee you, it will not look like that on Christmas Day.

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Here's the bathtub. It's weighted heavily with cold to the west (-30 temps) with a fat kid high pressure jumping in. If we had a look like this it would slosh to our side.

 

aaaa.jpg

I will say this.... If we have a 1056mb high pressure sitting in Montana, it will squash the SE ridge like a bug. There is no way that this map verifies as shown. I remember some of the more notorious cold air out-breaks in the past and they all featured a 1050+ mb high near that position.

122483sfc1.jpg

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35 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I will say this.... If we have a 1056mb high pressure sitting in Montana, it will squash the SE ridge like a bug. There is no way that this map verifies as shown. I remember some of the more notorious cold air out-breaks in the past and they all featured a 1050+ mb high near that position.

I've seen many of these highs dive down in MT , and dive straight into TX and moderate before it gets to the SE! I'm talking the -20/-30s lows

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Can someone explain the difference between the GFS and GEFS?  

 

Also, what other products on tropical tidbits show 2m air temps?  I only see it on the GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM.  How do I see that on the ECMWF or EPS?

The GFS is a deterministic model run. The GEFS is the ensembles to the GFS. The ensembles manipulate the GFS operational run to show variants. The Euro 2m are commonly hidden behind a pay wall. 

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