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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

What's it look like for the days after Christmas?  Is that a front moving through from the west?  That frame looks like last Tuesday, the last warm day before the cold air moved in.

The day after is similar but the cold air would be slowly moving towards the SE (fighting the SE ridge). The last frame does show the cold finally taking over but as we all know this is way out there in time.

So, we still have some time until the models home in on the pattern setup for Christmas. I would like to see a cold look by day 10; which means the models need to start changing their look in the next couple of days.

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19 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The day after is similar but the cold air would be slowly moving towards the SE (fighting the SE ridge). The last frame does show the cold finally taking over but as we all know this is way out there in time.

So, we still have some time until the models home in on the pattern setup for Christmas. I would like to see a cold look by day 10; which means the models need to start changing their look in the next couple of days.

I've seen it a hundred times, with the set up depicted on today's 6z GFS , when the Arctic air battles the SE ridge, it can take quite awhile for that air to bleed into the SE and over the mountains!

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open.

6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar).

 

aaaa.jpg

Makes me feel like we're living in Central FL with those temps.for Christmas. The last three have been so warm that my kids played in t-shirts and jeans while riding new toys. 

I'm gonna take my family and move back to Marquette. At least in the UP we have snow. No summer to speak of, but definitely winter. Maybe I'll just keep a summer home here. LOL

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10 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I think we probably relax for a couple weeks in Jan, but I am not bullish on a sustained winter is over kind of warm pattern this year.  I think that will end up being the real snipe hunt of the winter of 17/18.

Good to see the persistent -AO/-EPO atleast.   Hopefully we can keep that going into January and hope the SE ridge relaxes some and we get some form of Greenland blocking.  Snowcover to our NW won’t be an issue either.  

This is probably a good thing, we suck at snow in December.  This Dec won’t be all that different then Dec 08 and 13.  Those winters turned out alright.  

 

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Ensembles are now in pretty good agreement that our beloved Alaskan ridge is going to retrograde back north/west, shifting the trough to our west and popping a decent SE ridge toward the holidays.  Perhaps things shift better cause it's still a long ways out.  But I don't think so. My biggest concern has been we'd have a good/decent period in December outside of good climo, and soon as we get into our wheelhouse in January we'd lose the pattern.  Looks like that may be the case. Hopefully in January our -QBO and low solar can kick back in and get us some good blocking back.  I hope Nina climo is not taking over.   

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_55.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png

If blank, model image not available

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37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Amazing how we can't get cold without it being pushed back in time, but I promise the death ridge will be right on time or early, spreading Christmas joy to all the good little girls and boys!

You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. 

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54 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Wow...hearing the weeklies torch as you we get into January and now the JMA seasonal is just lovely. 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

That seems to be the theme from our recent winters. If there is one thing to bet on each winter, it's a SE ridge with AN temps.

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25 minutes ago, packbacker said:

You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. 

Shoot, I am fine with taking my 9 inches and calling it a winter; better than most.  Anything else is gravy.

 

However, still hope all of you that missed out get something this winter.

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Ensembles are now in pretty good agreement that our beloved Alaskan ridge is going to retrograde back north/west, shifting the trough to our west and popping a decent SE ridge toward the holidays.  Perhaps things shift better cause it's still a long ways out.  But I don't think so. My biggest concern has been we'd have a good/decent period in December outside of good climo, and soon as we get into our wheelhouse in January we'd lose the pattern.  Looks like that may be the case. Hopefully in January our -QBO and low solar can kick back in and get us some good blocking back.  I hope Nina climo is not taking over.   

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_55.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png

If blank, model image not available

I thought orange map colors were good :unsure:

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