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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

We just need to get it over the mountains!! No one in NC/SC wants any part of an Arctic plunge that gets caught bisecting TN and gives Memphis the snowy/icy goods!

Looks more like Dec 2013...which would be a good prelude to a great Jan and Fab Feb.   Maybe that's what he meant...I miss JB's hype video's.4sTTS7w.png

eps_z500a_d5_nh_360.png

 

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^ That's a fairly stout western ridge.  A lot of cold should be building up in eastern Canada and spilling into the northern tier of the US, should that pattern verify.  With a well-timed high, we'd probably be looking at a nice winter storm, even with that extremely muted yellow shading across the southeast.

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28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

^ That's a fairly stout western ridge.  A lot of cold should be building up in eastern Canada and spilling into the northern tier of the US, should that pattern verify.  With a well-timed high, we'd probably be looking at a nice  SLUSH storm, even with that extremely muted yellow shading across the southeast.

FYP! :)

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5 hours ago, griteater said:

I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities

Probably  due to the fact of the southwest energy. Don't really see how it holds in place or retrogrades.  It gets ejected in some form. How what where? Plus the northern stream diving down rounding the Rockies. 

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8 minutes ago, FLweather said:

That is the Saturday storm.  This coming weekend.  Depend on alot  of factors of how this evolves. Could be a clipper to a GOM low. 

There was some chatter earlier about a clipper for NC on Wednesday, that's what I was referring to, with laying down snow pack. It must have not been on 18z GFS 

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41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

There was some chatter earlier about a clipper for NC on Wednesday, that's what I was referring to, with laying down snow pack. It must have not been on 18z GFS 

It’s only on the Euro and it’s ensembles for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Other models have the clipper further north in Virginia. 

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Euro Weeklies...

Week 2: similar pattern to what we've been in.  Near normal temps.  Cold to our north.  Warm in SW states / California.  Dry in the SE

Week 2.5 to Week 3: western ridge is strengthened and pushed poleward along Canadian west coast and into Alaska.  Hudson Bay cold vortex.  +NAO.  Temps are below normal east of the Rockies except FL.  SE Canada is very cold.  Precip is near normal.  This would be for Dec 22-Jan 1.

Week 4: Trough moves out west, weak SE ridge.  Slightly above normal temps.  Wetter than normal

Week 5-6: +EPO pattern with Alaska cold.  Warm over the lower 48.  Looks odd to me given the ENSO/QBO phase we are in, but we'll see.

 

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1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

Let's get that HP trending a little stronger snd just a tick slower. That HP off the coast of Washington looks pretty 

That high is pretty close, probably a 1028 would do the trick. They normally seem to set up shop in New England and we need something in the 1030s there. Wouldn't mind seeing a blocking high in the N Atlantic to keep it in place a bit, maybe knock that low down to a 1010 , but overall not a bad look. Maybe a little taller ridge in the West.

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open.

6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar).

 

aaaa.jpg

What's it look like for the days after Christmas?  Is that a front moving through from the west?  That frame looks like last Tuesday, the last warm day before the cold air moved in.

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