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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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6 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Ukie has a 1011 low SE of Louisiana at 120,1007 low just off the Carolina coast at 144.Temps look to be colder in the upper south.

Interesting

Did well with our last " event" I believe, along with NAVGEM! Would like the Euro to get onboard, this is only 6-7 days out! Cold rain, is all in!! What's he got to lose!? More cold rain :(

Where's Packbacker? Did he already burn out?

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9 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Ukie has a 1011 low SE of Louisiana at 120,1007 low just off the Carolina coast at 144.Temps look to be colder in the upper south.

Interesting

I think it's supposed to get really cold We'd/ Thursday, maybe we will have some stale Arctic air to work with, but with no blocking..... Sketchy

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Did well with our last " event" I believe, along with NAVGEM! Would like the Euro to get onboard, this is only 6-7 days out! Cold rain, is all in!! What's he got to lose!? More cold rain :(

Where's Packbacker? Did he already burn out?

Lol, a Low over the Gulf states and then off the NC coast at D6 with no high and no CAD?  0% chance Raleigh sees anything other than a predominantly cold rain.  Nah, I think I'll go ahead and be all out on this one.

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I don't think the cold will be there at that point in time, and you know it's coming NW!!

What basis do you have for this? There is PLENTY of cold on the 500mb map. This isn’t like our last system where we are waiting and hoping the cold arrives in time, it will already be in place and it’s a matter of how far south the energy digs. Verbatim, this track is a Central to Eastern NC crusher with 4-8” of snow.

f3wDZFK.gif

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

What basis do you have for this? There is PLENTY of cold on the 500mb map. This isn’t like our last system where we are waiting and hoping the cold arrives in time, it will already be in place and it’s a matter of how far south the energy digs. Verbatim, this track is a Central to Eastern NC crusher with 4-8” of snow.

https://i.imgur.com/f3wDZFK.gifv 

This time we'll be hoping the cold doesn't leave and that the system will quit trending NW.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol, a Low over the Gulf states and then off the NC coast at D6 with no high and no CAD?  0% chance Raleigh sees anything other than a predominantly cold rain.  Nah, I think I'll go ahead and be all out on this one.

Off the NC coast is tight where you want it! Brick will tell you, love the trends! It'll make its own cold air! 

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

This time we'll be hoping the cold doesn't leave and that the system will quit trending NW.

agreed. It actually needs to come NW on EURO and GFS and CMC haha  but UK looks nice.  We could actually handle a small trend NW on UK or a stronger low too. We are not used to having cold already in place before a storm

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7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

What basis do you have for this? There is PLENTY of cold on the 500mb map. This isn’t like our last system where we are waiting and hoping the cold arrives in time, it will already be in place and it’s a matter of how far south the energy digs. Verbatim, this track is a Central to Eastern NC crusher with 4-8” of snow.

f3wDZFK.gif

The lack of cold was based on my local forecast that has a high of 55 and 60 for next Sat/Sun, and local AFD saying next weekend temps were at normal! If we sped this up to Thursday, we could be golden

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Pretty sure that is retreating/relaxing cold but hey we do get our storms on the upbuild or move-out transitions with these patterns

I'd like to try a storm with retreating cold air! Most busts in my backyard, occur when precip gets here ahead of the cold! Seeing as that for whatever reason, our winter storms seem to arrive 12-18 hours ahead of schedule, this stale cold could work! Another week of lost sleep incoming 

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The lack of cold was based on my local forecast that has a high of 55 and 60 for next Sat/Sun, and local AFD saying next weekend temps were at normal! If we sped this up to Thursday, we could be golden

But this storm is moving through on Friday... two days after we have highs struggling to get above freezing and very COLD, DRY air in place. CAD may very well setup with the type of airmass in place AND the track is favorable to keep that cold in place. Many of our snowstorms here in Central and Eastern NC come from this classic Miller A setup. Lack of HP is the only thing missing but with the 50/50 low setting up and pressing down it should keep heights low enough along with the 500mb vort track. 

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2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

But this storm is moving through on Friday... two days after we have highs struggling to get above freezing and very COLD, DRY air in place. CAD may very well setup with the type of airmass in place AND the track is favorable to keep that cold in place. Many of our snowstorms here in Central and Eastern NC come from this classic Miller A setup. Lack of HP is the only thing missing but with the 50/50 low setting up and pressing down it should keep heights low enough along with the 500mb vort track. 

Good post.

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2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

But this storm is moving through on Friday... two days after we have highs struggling to get above freezing and very COLD, DRY air in place. CAD may very well setup with the type of airmass in place AND the track is favorable to keep that cold in place. Many of our snowstorms here in Central and Eastern NC come from this classic Miller A setup. Lack of HP is the only thing missing but with the 50/50 low setting up and pressing down it should keep heights low enough along with the 500mb vort track. 

I'm all in! Gonna be slow at work, so I have time to track! Like I said, I'll try stale cold air, I havnt had luck with fresh cold air coming before the moisture! If it's cold and dry enough, could lock in an in-situ wedge! 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

The lack of cold was based on my local forecast that has a high of 55 and 60 for next Sat/Sun, and local AFD saying next weekend temps were at normal! If we sped this up to Thursday, we could be golden

Well I'm not very good at these maps but it looks like cold is a little deeper and east this map compared to last system. Interesting to see yet another possibility with no apparent high and several lows, and yes, a GL low. If there is a N Fla to off the Carolina coast track that should work for someone on the board. Trough also looks sharper verbatim, so need to watch s/w tilt and of course timing. As always, keep climo in mind; NW will almost be certain and cold will be a problem outside elevation. Thanks for input Grit. I'd be interested to hear thoughts from Lookout, Wow, and Burrell.

 

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