mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Cold Rain likes! That Shetley snow hole, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: That Shetley snow hole, lol! Man that's bad luck. You can switch the hole and the star, come game day, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Cold Rain likes! Your time has arrived. Down go the snow shields! FIRE!! KAHN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 It's not a real threat until the dancing blue turd shows up! I havnt seen him yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro Ens mean snowfall has a similar spatial pattern this run, but the totals are down a bit. Here are the individual members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Discussion from GSP The medium range guidance is having some trouble with these individual pockets of energy, and this is resulting in some disagreement on the forecast details for our area. A weak wave is progged to develop along a strong baroclinic zone off the East Coast on Friday, in response to the height falls. As the wave develops, mid-lvl frontogenesis and upper divergence will increase over the Carolinas and up the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will likely result in a precip shield expanding north and west of the sfc front, into the colder air inland. However, how far inland the forcing and available moisture sets up is the main question. The 12z GFS (and in general the GEFS) has trended a little further east overall, and results in a dry fcst for entire area. The 12z ECMWF and CMC have trended west and would result in likely to possibly categorical PoPs across the I-85 corridor and east with up to a quarter inch of QPF. Low-level thicknesses support some snow or rain/snow mix on the northwest edge of this precip shield, which may include the I-85 corridor. So this could result in some trace or light snow accums on grassy sfcs with temps in the 30s to mid 40s. With competing trends in the guidance, confidence is still below average. I went close to the WPC PoPs and the Superblend temps (which are on the cool side), which keeps a slgt chc to low-end chc from NW to SE across the CWFA on Friday, with some snow and rain/snow wording. The sfc-based warm layer is expected to increase enough to change precip over to rain across the Piedmont. So snow accums are not expected to be enough for any big impacts. As the sfc wave zips off to the NE Friday night thru Saturday, the precip shield should exit the area. Temps will be about 10-15 deg below normal, as the upper trough axis pivots east over the area. Another vigorous vort max will round the base of the trough on Saturday and bring a brief shot of moisture to the area. A quick inch or two of snow may be possible in the west-facing slopes of the NC mountains. An isolated band of showers cannot be ruled out east of the mountains, due to the very strong forcing, but pinning that down is impossible this far out. Temps begin to slowly rebound Sunday and Monday, but another reinforcing shortwave will dive into the eastern CONUS longwave trough by the end of the period. This may bring another quick NW flow snow shower event to the mountains by late Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GSP and RAH must not have had much of a conference call. Discussion from RAH The final s/w will cross the region late Friday-early Saturday. This system may trigger or few rain showers mixed with some wet snowflakes near or north of the Triad early Friday evening. More appreciable cold air advection will occur in the wake of this system. This will result in afternoon temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees colder than normal, and overnight temperatures well into the 20s Saturday night and Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'll take a blend of E49 and E51 and call it a winter. Question for the weather veterans on here. What variable is causing big numbers on frames 49 and 51? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I'll take a blend of E49 and E51 and call it a winter. Question for the weather veterans on here. What variable is causing big numbers on frames 49 and 51? They likely have a more consolidated wave that kicks out at the base of the trough > stronger surface low that isn't strung out > more precip back inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro Ensemble Mean trend loop. Surface low has trended slower and closer to the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Ensemble Mean trend loop. Surface low has trended slower and closer to the southeast coast. Ridging into Greenland stronger + that Bermuda high popping up. EURO really trying to make this interesting for you NC folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Everyone's talking about the Greenland block being in place. If that's the case then why does that 1032 HP scoot off the east coast when the low pressure system shoots out of the gulf and up the east coast on December 15th? (Per 12z GFS) edit: I'm no meteorologist but I see potential for a phaser if we can keep HP in place. I'm just here to learn. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Everyone's talking about the Greenland block being in place. If that's the case then why does that 1032 HP scoot off the east coast when the low pressure system shoots out of the gulf and up the east coast on December 15th? (Per 12z GFS) edit: I'm no meteorologist but I see potential for a phaser if we can keep HP in place. I'm just here to learn. What am I missing? You said the magic words...... GFS, 10 days away. Enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Everyone's talking about the Greenland block being in place. If that's the case then why does that 1032 HP scoot off the east coast when the low pressure system shoots out of the gulf and up the east coast on December 15th? (Per 12z GFS) edit: I'm no meteorologist but I see potential for a phaser if we can keep HP in place. I'm just here to learn. What am I missing? It's the Burrel Hudson Bay vortex pattern. As northern stream energy keeps dropping down thru the north central states and into the eastern trough, surface high pressure is kicked off the east coast. So, we have to rely on timing where an arctic front moves through, but a storm wave quickly follows and digs far enough south to give us wintry precip. It's not a good pattern for locking in strong cold highs over the Great Lakes. During that timeframe, the AO is negative, but the NAO is neutral. There's no big Greenland block in place at that time. A week or 2 ago, there was probably more model support for -NAO, but that has waned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z GFS is a little sharper with the trough and it has more precip inland than 12z. Looks like a decent run for Raleigh area. Close on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looking at the 3 ensemble means (GFS, CMC, Euro), the CMC is actually the farthest east with the late week storm, with the least amount of precip inland (though it's Op run had precip well inland). 18z GFS Ens Mean was a little stronger with the coastal low with a jog northwest with the precip compared to 12z Looking ahead, the pattern looks pretty good for chilly conditions and possible storm threats thru at least Dec 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Atleast it should feel like a week before xmas....unless your used to the usual tank tops and flip flops christmases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snovary said: 18z GEFS Snow in Macon? Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, WarmNose said: JC on 4, said absolutely no snow outside of the mtns! But CJ saying looking more likely! That's what happens when you have an old coot and a weenie at the same station! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 With everything we see about upcoming pattern, including chances for swing and miss...odds that Winston/Greensboro sees an inch of snow before Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: JC on 4, said absolutely no snow outside of the mtns! But CJ saying looking more likely! That's what happens when you have an old coot and a weenie at the same station! Ya... I saw that, I moved to WSOC, they mentioned that one model said maybe snow and one had the low further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 WPC Model Diagnostics Discussion... THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE UKMET (THE 12Z UKMET IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN) IN SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SETS UP QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW AN OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS...SO WOULD PREFER TO TREND THINGS TOWARD THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NUMBER OF GEFS...CMC...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...UKMET...CMC...WOULD ALSO PREFER NOT TO GO WITH A SOLUTION THAT AMPLIFIED YET. THE SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE AT THE MOMENT IS THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH ACTUALLY CAPTURES THE SPREAD WELL (SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN MATCH CLOSER TO THE GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: JC on 4, said absolutely no snow outside of the mtns! But CJ saying looking more likely! That's what happens when you have an old coot and a weenie at the same station! JC is the semi-old coot, DG is the real old coot and won't forecast snow may be coming until it has started or has finished accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, NorthernUpstateSC said: JC is the semi-old coot, DG is the real old coot and won't forecast snow may be coming until it has started or has finished accumulating. Very true!! KK wouldn't call for snow if it was pelting her in the face and was so deep she couldn't get out of the Fox parking lot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Very true!! KK wouldn't call for snow if it was pelting her in the face and was so deep she couldn't get out of the Fox parking lot!! How could you be a met and not like snow??? That was the main reason why when I was little that I got interested in the weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Navgem is a Mack special...GFS is all alone with how fast it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Pack that looks super amped and warm east of the mtns. Good for the mtns tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Pack that looks super amped and warm east of the mtns. Good for the mtns tho Yep...that’s probably where we are heading. Typical climo nw of 85 type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Snovary said: Atleast it should feel like a week before xmas....unless your used to the usual tank tops and flip flops christmases I'll take a mild Christmas. Y'all can keep the cold and snow. Just send the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.