mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 CR, wake up! Colder run, no GL low, NE trend! It's on like donkey kong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Again, GFS is slower with the low. Until that trend stops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Man, that map is awful. In the eye of the beholder........who happens to live in eastern Forsyth County......which happens to be under that 5" bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Again, GFS is slower with the low. Until that trend stops.... The slower the better, correct? Allows more cold to get down our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Wow, this is getting interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The slower the better, correct? Allows more cold to get down our way? I would think so...on this GFS run there is a very weak high and the GL low is much weaker. Plus we more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: In the eye of the beholder........who happens to live in eastern Forsyth County......which happens to be under that 5" bullseye! Oh no, I meant that map was awful because it was so blatantly incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 don't get sucked in. gfs will get everyone excited until the nam shows the warm nose 36hrs out. will take this approach until proven wrong this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Again, GFS is slower with the low. Until that trend stops.... What a pretty run. Legit threat here. The slower speed definitely helps with getting a more organized system to grow following the passage of the front bringing in the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Hey... I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: Hey... I'll take it +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 CMC is a scraper. Just a little snow in eastern NC. UKMet looks like a decent system just off the SE coast. It doesn't look as far west as the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: don't get sucked in. gfs will get everyone excited until the nam shows the warm nose 36hrs out. will take this approach until proven wrong this season. This is why in the southeast meteorological winter is closely followed by psychologist winter. We all get sucked in on 72 hours of model mayhem only to go to bed hopeful, wake up dejected and calling 1800-MODLSUX screaming why! why! why?!. Its what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: CMC is a scraper. Just a little snow in eastern NC. UKMet looks like a decent system just off the SE coast. It doesn't look as far west as the 12z run CMC didn't even have a storm at 12Z so that's definitely an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 interesting the gfs really backed off the gl low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: don't get sucked in. gfs will get everyone excited until the nam shows the warm nose 36hrs out. will take this approach until proven wrong this season. After 1/6/17, I won't believe in snow until I actually see it on the ground, and even then I will reserve judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS trying to drop some more light snow over NC on the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 LR 00z GFS is better. Keeps various troughs and vortices around through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 NC high school championship games are next Saturday. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: NC high school championship games are next Saturday. Could be fun. Wake Forest is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: NC high school championship games are next Saturday. Could be fun. I keep seeing this low pop up... in the right spot in NC, it could really make things fun. Dare to dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 That looks like a clipper Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 48 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: don't get sucked in. gfs will get everyone excited until the nam shows the warm nose 36hrs out. will take this approach until proven wrong this season. There won't be a warm nose. The concern with this one is boundary layer temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looking at the 00z GFS Ensemble members on the College of Dupage site, it looks to be a fairly even mix of members in 3 scenarios: 1) Scrapers with precip in eastern Carolinas (maybe some snow on NW fringe) 2) Snow focused in central NC, rain to the east 3) Snow in Western NC, rain to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 hours ago, WidreMann said: There won't be a warm nose. The concern with this one is boundar6y layer temperatures. Agree. Dewpoints have been trending colder near VA/NC border. Also back towards Charlotte Greensboro. Since 6z. Really looking at the dewpoints the 38 isotherm has been near Greenville Pittsboro. So any snow that does fall will be back in the Piedmont. Snow will develop as evaporative cooling. Key is getting moisture back into the cool boundary layer with out the caa from a HP. Thought it was kind of interesting that the 12z was showing a Lee trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 hours ago, JoshM said: Hey... I'll take it Not bad at all. I will gladly take the 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6z GFS backed off on the amounts and coverage. RDU still does well (for his time of year): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 We've had some good model runs but the chips are still not with us. From what RAH says below, a win would be some token flakes. Thursday night through Saturday, models are still going back and forth on the the timing/location/strength of the possible waves of low pressure that develop along the stalled boundary from the Gulf of Mexico NE off the NC coast. The main issue is that there is cool, dry air in place over our region, but not cold and dry air. In addition, there is not a parent surface high in place (in a proper position nor strength) to bring cold air to our neighborhood (based on nearly all model solutions. So, there will not be a source of cold dry air. That is a no go for accumulating snow in this region. Therefore, we will stick with the chance of rain. Temperatures should range from the mid 30s to 40 for lows Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s SE. Pattern recognition strongly suggests that the more robust the moisture influx into the region (the warmer aloft it will get), and conversely the less robust the moisture influx, the cooler it will be. Bottom line, this appears to be a real no win situation for snow lovers with the supply of cold dry air just not there, and the stronger the influx of WAA to generate precipitation this far north means a warmer mid level forecast - if the models get wetter they will get warmer. The best chance of any snow showers may come at the tail end of the system, as the cold air chases the moisture (but this rarely brings measurable snow for us). This would be Friday if it occurs. Stay tuned through, as it is expected to get colder after this potential rain event, potentially lasting well into the end of the month. Highs by Sunday should be in the 40s with lows in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 RAH downplaying this (...which they should), but we still need to keep an eye on the possibilities. From Newport/Morehead City (NC coastal areas): Thursday and Friday...Models have continued trend with low pressure development south of area Thu night and moving NE just off the coast Friday, with some model differences thereafter asGFS moves low out to NE Fri night while ECMWF lingers it into Saturday. Given model trends, continued 20-50% POPs Thu increasing to likely SE 2/3 of area late Thu night and then high chance for all areas Friday into Friday evening. Some model fields indicate potential for mixed precip inland sections late Thu night and again late Fri night but not seeing enough general support to include mention in forecast at this time. Highs mainly mid 40s to lower 50s both days with lows 35-45 Thu night and possibly a few degrees cooler Fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 EPS mean has jumped considerably for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.