WidreMann Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 It does show a rain/snow mix over the piedmont and some snow towards the foothills, of NC, SC and VA. 850s are certainly cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: It does show a rain/snow mix over the piedmont and some snow towards the foothills, of NC, SC and VA. 850s are certainly cold enough. Me likes when Widremann is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 This is mainly mixing with temps floating around freezing, but for context there looks to be more moisture at play in the 12z ECMWF run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 ColdRain special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: I am highly excited and I feel like I’m back up living in the northeast. Watch how it plays out and will realize you have really and truly moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 29m29 minutes ago This run of the ECMWF follows the general idea of the 12z GFS which develops a wave of low pressure on the cold front Thursday night/Friday. Euro wetter, with a wet snow event for central NC/SC, SE Va, parts of E Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Solak said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 29m29 minutes ago This run of the ECMWF follows the general idea of the 12z GFS which develops a wave of low pressure on the cold front Thursday night/Friday. Euro wetter, with a wet snow event for central NC/SC, SE Va, parts of E Ga. We really need a NW trend! Think the cold will be there! We've had some good events involving waves forming along Arctic fronts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: ColdRain special... I honestly feel real good about being in the snow hole @ 6 days out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, packbacker said: ColdRain special... Just how Raleigh likes their storms...late blooming and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 EPS mean for Raleigh, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z ECMWF is pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Temperature anomaly's at HR240 on both 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF. GFS clearly colder but its nice to see a basic agreement out to day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Meanwhile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 11th and 12th looks like just a Fropa now on 18z GFS . But dang cold after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I'll take the cold to freeze the ground for our pre-Christmas Big Dog! Otherwise, no sticky with marginal rates or a light event. And to kill the last of these dang stink bugs! Found another ball of those things, still alive, all snuggled up in my grill today. Hate them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Robert made a good post a little while ago! Next weekend should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Look at Isohume's office (GSP) doing some model chasing... At that point, confidence goes way down and the operational guidance gets very interesting Thursday night and Friday. The GFS keeps wanting to come back to a scenario where a wave moves along the front...well off the coast...but with enough mid-level frontogenesis and upper divergence to keep the western edge of a precip shield very close to the fcst area...back into the colder air. The ECMWF, on the other hand, keeps wanting to come back to a scenario where a sharp short wave comes around the bottom of the upper trof and induces cyclogenesis on the front, closer to the coast with the western edge of the precip even farther west and into the cold air. Fortunately, or unfortunately as the case may be, we get a look at the new run of the ECMWF usually too late to incorporate it into our fcst right away at this time of year, which in this case removes the temptation to start including all sorts of snow across the region on Friday. Instead, we shall wait for another run or two to see some model continuity, and will keep our fcst dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 11 of the 20 18z GFS Ensemble members have the SE coastal storm ride the arctic boundary closely after it's passage...throwing precip back inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Any chance this thing phases next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 A few of the cips analogs were snowy but thought this analog looked closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I'll take the cold to freeze the ground for our pre-Christmas Big Dog! Otherwise, no sticky with marginal rates or a light event. And to kill the last of these dang stink bugs! Found another ball of those things, still alive, all snuggled up in my grill today. Hate them!! 1 Stink bugs don't die in winter here. They winter over in the walls of your house hollow trees and other sheltered areas. They will be one of the first to reappear next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: A few of the cips analogs were snowy but thought this analog looked closest. Underrated or overrated, that Great Lakes low is no Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Underrated or overrated, that Great Lakes low is no Bueno I vaguely remember this event...the fact it snowed with that big low over the lakes in mid-Nov is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 50 minutes ago, jburns said: Stink bugs don't die in winter here. They winter over in the walls of your house hollow trees and other sheltered areas. They will be one of the first to reappear next spring. Really? Wow.....i figured exterior pests that didnt go below ground would perish in the 20's. That is not what I wanted to hear Burnsie! Gonna take a Big Dog Euro run tonight to make me happy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Swing and a miss on this run! Cold rain gets some 30s and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Oh wait, the Saturday clipper will bring our holiday joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Keep in mind where you want the GFS 5 days out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 One thing is for sure...... it's going to get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The snow guns will be cranking... ski industry folks should be loving these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 If only... That is a gorgeous look right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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