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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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8 minutes ago, GlaringSun said:

This pattern change coming up in early December with constant high pressures dropping down south seems too good to be true. Do you guys think this will verify?

NOAA CPC says...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 14 2017 

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO 
THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, FORECAST 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS ESTABLISHED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MUCH 
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING WEEK-2
. THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX 
WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVE WITH TIME AS FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT 
ANOMALIES ARE PROMINENT OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 
DURING EARLY DECEMBER. 

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DURING WEEK-2 IS BASED ON TELECONNECTIONS UPON THIS 
LARGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER, ALONG WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL AND 
STATISTICAL TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WHERE 
STATISTICAL TOOLS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

GFS Ens members continue to show a smorgasbord of wintry threats intermingled with rainy ones in the extended range

Grit, would you say the GEFS shows....a plethora of wintry threats? 

I'm gonna back away from stalking this pattern.  I think I spooked it.  My greenland block is fading away, the euro ensembles have muted the western ridge a bit on the last run, and it's early December (and I have a bow and arrow, none of this makes sense!).  Gotta just let it burn and see where we are next week. Somebody holler when there something worthy of a PBP threat. Those are fun. 

If blank, model image not available

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4 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

a N Atlantic ridge is still good right?

It tends to lead to a pattern of storm>cold>warm>storm.  It's preferred to have low pressure / troughing off the NE coast so that sfc highs don't quickly slip off said NE coast.  But that's still a fairly steep eastern U.S. trough, so just have to lean on timing to synch the cold and storm.

18z GFS Ens members weren't quite as good with the number of wintry threats, but still some in there.

Tonight's Euro Weeklies maintain a -EPO/+PNA look thru Dec with western ridge and eastern U.S. trough....they look maybe even better in early Jan where the trough extends across much of the country....-AO throughout the run...more -NAO as the run goes out in time into Jan.

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44 minutes ago, griteater said:

It tends to lead to a pattern of storm>cold>warm>storm.  It's preferred to have low pressure / troughing off the NE coast so that sfc highs don't quickly slip off said NE coast.  But that's still a fairly steep eastern U.S. trough, so just have to lean on timing to synch the cold and storm.

18z GFS Ens members weren't quite as good with the number of wintry threats, but still some in there.

Tonight's Euro Weeklies maintain a -EPO/+PNA look thru Dec with western ridge and eastern U.S. trough....they look maybe even better in early Jan where the trough extends across much of the country....-AO throughout the run...more -NAO as the run goes out in time into Jan.

tenor.gif

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8 hours ago, packbacker said:

I thought it looked ominous....multiple waves diving down.  Another one dropping down in KS/MS.

gfs_z500_vort_us_30.png

 

1 hour ago, Isopycnic said:

Lol gfs...

150EEC91-3F4E-4D24-8EC2-D6B3421898C6.jpeg

4CDAC6D4-80E9-4A3C-BCA6-07C26124B2CF.jpeg

4955EA04-3599-476E-91F5-A47438BE0427.jpeg

A0B798E5-671D-4700-B281-629E12F08CBC.jpeg

Very possible.  I mentioned  all cards on the table.  Depends on how the ridge and southern energy act. Couple days ago alot of southern stream energy was undercutting and retrograding the ridge out west per models.  No so much now.  Unless something serious start showing around the 8-9th(the Miller a/b) then that will be rain.  It's been several years.  But my opinion can't compare to 09/10 & 14(14/15)!?  One thing about it is...  The models haven't  a clue.  After 150 + hours it's all Northern stream pattern. Possibly clipper after clipper till something gives. 

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Ashe - looking at the Euro Ensemble, it has the cool down late next week, then a moderation / warmup, then another cool down.  End of the Euro Op run there at 240 is the moderation...but there should be some reinforcements thereafter.  Heck, who knows, this is way out there in time.  It certainly looks cooler than normal over the first half of Dec, but we can't lock in an iceberg forecast here.  Also, losing some of the Greenland blocking puts the full onus on the western ridge to deliver...so, it is a little riskier play now.

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9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS run looks good. Surprised how dead it is in here with the pattern we have setting up. 

It really does look good! Its the little wiggles in the model runs and almost dis belief that it's looking this good. People are hoping for the best, but waiting on the pattern to crumble, befor it even starts. 12z GFS looks good

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