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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Good point.  My point was simply though that it's not really crazy cold.  It's getting us just marginally cold, in the ballpark of something to track.    

Yeah you're right! Oops, how many degrees difference is 6 C in Fahrenheit? 

Keep in mind too that it’s an ensemble mean... at 240+ hours. It’s an average of both extremes on the warmer and colder side. Take a look at the Euro and GFS OP runs to get an idea of what type of potential is likely. We are looking at 10-20 degrees below normal if the EPS/Euro and GFS look verifies. 

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33 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This got tweeted out...it has precip/temps/snow for the Euro/EPS. 

https://weather.us/forecast/4487042-raleigh/ensemble/euro/precipitation

Great, more info to look at!  When will I ever pull away from this crap!  That's nice, free info there.  Times have changed from looking at the MRF on Unisys

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Good point.  My point was simply though that it's not really crazy cold.  It's getting us just marginally cold, in the ballpark of something to track.    

Yeah you're right! Oops, how many degrees difference is 6 C in Fahrenheit? 

It's also an ensemble mean so if it has the correct idea it will trend colder as we get closer.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

~11        ...I think

 

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Little less then double for F, give or take.  The EPS is really cold.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Allan's site has  2m temp dep in F.

 

 

9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

It's also an ensemble mean so if it has the correct idea it will trend colder as we get closer.

Thanks all for the clarifications.  It seems like we're in the game more than I initially perceived.  Let's see where she goes.  

^^Grit's stats for CLT look interesting too.  That's a nice jump that takes place in the amount of events after mid month.  

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

ha the Euro with the perfect little lucky storm scenario in this pattern...Mack gets warm bubbled tho

I can't even get a fantasy snow! That's how pathetic mby is! :(

Pattern looks ok for a couple of below average days, no winter storms tho. By day 10, it'll probably be mid 60s in reality! I'm 56 degrees below avg with all my fantasy cold shots from this year already!

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3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Unisys is how I learned about p-types. As bad as the model data was..

Yep..sure makes me feel old thinking about how long ago that was. 

As for the up coming cold...shame there won't be more snow cover in the plains. Still very impressive pattern though

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