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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The silence is deafening! Another model bust on the mega cool down. Thanksgiving looks right at normal. So much for the awesome cold Thanksgiving! Model watching getting of to a great start! :(

A model flip is not a model bust. A model does not bust or verify until the day/time being discussed. I thought we were talking about Thanksgiving (still 6 days away). I would not even call what has transpired over the last couple days as a flip. More of a backing off because of uncertainty. We shall see. I would take where we sit now over where we have been the last few years for Thanksgiving and the next 3 months. But I try to see the glass half full.

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10

Thats how many days in a row RDU has been at or below normal. Fact all have been below except yesterday they ended up at normal. If they can squeek out today and tommorrow, theyll have a shot to really pile on and make a run at a nice record of consecutive days at or below normal. At Greensboro we ended up on the plus side yesterday. But had a great run and time to start a new one. Both locales are about -2 for the month and pretty much guranteed a below normal Nov .

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3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

National Science Foundation Winter Forecast

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

uHXW84C.jpg

Looks alot like Jb's Pioneer Model. Maybe they're onto something. Jb's Model does incorporate more influential pattern Drivers than most others. IF these were to pan out, there's going to be alot of these well written , detailed outlooks bust.

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18z operational was nothing to write home about, but the ensembles are still showing quite a spread beyond 72.  The hope here is that the s/w dropping well south will fully phase and pull the PV over the NE.   

BTW, the cumulative snow map for the Euro by end of run on D10 is excellent.  Lots of snowfall over SE Canada and the NE.

iN91dBN.png

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

18z operational was nothing to write home about, but the ensembles are still showing quite a spread beyond 72.  The hope here is that the s/w dropping well south will fully phase and pull the PV over the NE.   

BTW, the cumulative snow map for the Euro by end of run on D10 is excellent.  Lots of snowfall over SE Canada and the NE.

iN91dBN.png

You got it man. The big question this winter is if we get substantial blocking. If so, there's going to be plenty of cold to the north to push into our region. Blocking could provide a repeat of 1995 & 2010 type winters (la nina / blocking winters). 

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I agree.  The major key is the Thanksgiving Day storm.  How much northern stream energy gets injected into the southern stream. 

If the southern stream can close off that would definitely help pulling the PV closer to the NE.  Alot  can happen over the next week. But if that were to occur the cold will come and may start making the southern stream more active. 

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46 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

You got it man. The big question this winter is if we get substantial blocking. If so, there's going to be plenty of cold to the north to push into our region. Blocking could provide a repeat of 1995 & 2010 type winters (la nina / blocking winters). 

I give up on blocking! All we need is perfect timing to score my annual sleet storm! ;)

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0z gofus stronger with the southern stream h5 low around Turkey Day.  More s/w engery  gets into the trough.  Closed h5 low.  Holds the low longer instead of opening  into trough.  H5 low over Savannah Georgia at 153. May have more impact on pulling the PV further over NE and future. 

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