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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Lol yeah the Euro is not trending in the right direction. Shoot both the Euro and the GFS look warm for a great outdoors Thanksgiving. Still over a week away though. A lot to iron out but yeah the Euro looks like much of the lower 48 will be warm for Thanksgiving

I could very well be wrong here, but I think the Euro is downplaying the blocking effects. This -NAO looks to have legs. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out and where the cold air dump will be focused. With all that being said, climo would suggest that it is difficult to get true arctic air into the southeast before December. However there's always that 1950 event.

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2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I could very well be wrong here, but I think the Euro is downplaying the blocking effects. This -NAO looks to have legs. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out and where the cold air dump will be focused. With all that being said, climo would suggest that it is difficult to get true arctic air into the southeast before December. However there's always that 1950 event.

Yeah I think it may. I know both models have been jumping around a lot. I don't think either model has any idea until we get in under 5 days of blocking. The AO should start to go negative in the next day or two then hopefully the NAO. I'm playing devil's advocate recently with the models jumping around. The GEFS though have been pretty stable in the advertised pattern they are showing. If the Blocking is real and does look to gain momentum then look for some pretty big changes to both models. I mean outside the mountains even this pattern will be hard to get some snow in the lowlands but hopefully after a relaxation we will see more blocking occur in the heart of winter as long as the blocking truly transpires. 

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4 hours ago, griteater said:

The AO drops to -4 and the NAO to -2.5 Nov 20th on the mean for the Euro, GFS, and CMC Ensemble...they're all consistent with that element at this time.

The -NAO is going to be very important this year.  If it turns out to be correctly modeled in the upcoming pattern, that will go a long way in raising confidence that we may see several periods of legit blocking this winter.

For now, let's remember that it's November.  It's probably not going to snow.  But finishing this month below normal and having a legit block will bode well for winter, IMO.  We're probably going to have to deal with a decent PAC jet to go along with the pattern for the time being.  Not ideal, but it's November.  Getting some blocking going is what's important right now.

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4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The -NAO is going to be very important this year.  If it turns out to be correctly modeled in the upcoming pattern, that will go a long way in raising confidence that we may see several periods of legit blocking this winter.

For now, let's remember that it's November.  It's probably not going to snow.  But finishing this month below normal and having a legit block will bode well for winter, IMO.  We're probably going to have to deal with a decent PAC jet to go along with the pattern for the time being.  Not ideal, but it's November.  Getting some blocking going is what's important right now.

It looks good for us to average below normal for the month. Even after the warm start, RDU is now ~1.5 below for the month. Looking ahead, that number should grow. Today and Saturday look to be the warmest days, but even they look to be around average.

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=rah

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To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight.  The PNA does not go positive,  the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles.  I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this.  Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight.  The PNA does not go positive,  the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles.  I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this.  Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though.

Transition period so I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Models are going to continue their shenanigans for a while still. Keep the positive vibes cause it will get fun and soon.

 

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5 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

Transition period so I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Models are going to continue their shenanigans for a while still. Keep the positive vibes cause it will get fun and soon.

 

Yeah even like a lot have said if this is just a precursor for down the road we will be fine for maybe one or two storms. I'm just not feeling it currently. 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight.  The PNA does not go positive,  the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles.  I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this.  Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though.

Indicies Schemendicies.  Every model I see has blocking around greenland as far as the eye can see.  Below is the EPS last night and the newest GEFS.  Everybody's on board with legit blocking....and it's been on the models for a week or more.  I don't remember having this much modeled blocking agreement in forever.  Not to say it couldn't disappear but I highly doubt it.  What does that mean for us right now here in November? Probably not much than cool fall weather.  As CR said, it ain't snowing down here in November most likely.  I'm not looking for snow until late December. But all signs point to some nice blocking that PERHAPS can be a theme for the winter.  I hope.  But I think we're definitely getting some blocking the next week or 2 IMO.  If we don't we may as well throw out every single model and watch them burn.  

I'm pretty confident we get some blocking this winter too...the stage seems to be getting set.  Does the pacific screw it up and we stay normal/cool not cold all winter? Could be, but there seems to be some nice variability out there with the ridges and troughs so we could potentially be in the game just as often as not this winter.  Just very nice to have this look starting the winter rather than hoping things do a complete 180 somewhere down the line just to have a chance. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Euro looks Zonal with a negative PNA and glancing cool invasions besides the cool down this weekend. The EPS will be interesting to see. 

Looking at days 5-10 on the ensembles, all 3 (GFS, CMC, Euro) have the Greenland/Davis Strait blocking.  GFS is slowest and most developed with the low anomaly south of the block and has below normal temps in the east and southeast (5-10 day avg).  Euro is fastest and least developed with the low anomaly and has above normal temps.  CMC is in between and has normal to slightly above normal temps.

Looking ahead to end of month and early Dec, each ensemble mean has a significant low anomaly moving into the Bering Sea, Alaska, and the Gulf of Alaska...with above normal heights over Greenland/Davis Strait...a pattern that would favor a mild western U.S. and normal to cool in the east/southeast.  It's largely a dry / NW flow kind of pattern.  Stick below normal heights in Greenland/Davis Strait and it would be a torch for the full lower 48.

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

Looking at days 5-10 on the ensembles, all 3 (GFS, CMC, Euro) have the Greenland/Davis Strait blocking.  GFS is slowest and most developed with the low anomaly south of the block and has below normal temps in the east and southeast (5-10 day avg).  Euro is fastest and least developed with the low anomaly and has above normal temps.  CMC is in between and has normal to slightly above normal temps.

Looking ahead to end of month and early Dec, each ensemble mean has a significant low anomaly moving into the Bering Sea, Alaska, and the Gulf of Alaska...with above normal heights over Greenland/Davis Strait...a pattern that would favor a mild western U.S. and normal to cool in the east/southeast.  It's largely a dry / NW flow kind of pattern.  Stick below normal heights in Greenland/Davis Strait and it would be a torch for the full lower 48.

That could be the theme for the winter. +NAO/AO and we torch; particularly the SE. 

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Euro Weeklies...

Week 3: Big low anomaly in Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska.  Above normal heights over most of North America.  Trough off NE coast.  Weak east based +NAO.  Slightly below normal temps along E coast including the SE...probably tendency to have high pressure located over the NE and off the NE coast.  Warmest temp anomalies are in North Central Canada.  Dry in SE, normal precip elsewhere....this is consistent with all of the ensembles, so probably a good forecast for now.

Week 4: Pac low anomaly retrogrades west a bit, still located in Aleutians and Bering Sea.  Ridge along west coast.  Trough centered along Miss River.  Weak +NAO.  Cool temp anomalies from Great Lakes to TX, to FL, including the SE.  Near normal precip in SE.

Week 5: +WPO low anomaly in NW Pacific.  Ridge off west coast into Alaska.  Weak +NAO.  Temps cool in E 1/2 of U.S.  Precip slightly dry in far SE

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Not saying this winter will be anything close but, the famed la nina winter of 95-96 would have been overall mild if it were not for the strong -NAO much of it. In fact, I believe pretty much all forecasts were as now, for a mild winter. As we all know, models are not good at predicting blocking too far in advance. Also, they tend to break it down too quick, especially the GFS. I think the hope lies in the -QBO and models probably don't incorporate that a whole lot. At least there's some hope against the standard La nina winter backdrop.

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The silence is deafening! Another model bust on the mega cool down. Thanksgiving looks right at normal. So much for the awesome cold Thanksgiving! Model watching getting of to a great start! :(

Yep, the 6z GFS would have normal type temps for many of us; but it would cool to below normal for Black Friday. Looking at the LR, it looks like a lot of slightly below temps on the way. 

I would add that if blocking sets in (and stays for more than a week), these temps will start showing a colder trend in the coming days. 

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