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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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PNA now looks to go positive in the LR

AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR

NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR

So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

PNA now looks to go positive in the LR

AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR

NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR

So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

I'm waiting on @Cold Rain 's graph to make it official. 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

PNA now looks to go positive in the LR

AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR

NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR

So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Man that sounds wonderful for us winter lovers. Hopefully we get some action end of the month or early December!

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7 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

And loses the blocking after Thanksgiving.  Ruhroh.  It's ok, come back January 1 and we're cool.  

The models are jumping around (more than normal). It seems in years past we would see this more when blocking was setting up.

Looking (for fun) at day 16 of the 12z GFS, it does show another dump of cold air into the US; heading towards the east.

So basically the important thing is most of the model runs continue to show cold air pushes into the US even though their details are jumping radically.  

aaaa.jpg

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28 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Crickets up in this piece after the Euro! What a dumpster fire! :(

Lol yeah the Euro is not trending in the right direction. Shoot both the Euro and the GFS look warm for a great outdoors Thanksgiving. Still over a week away though. A lot to iron out but yeah the Euro looks like much of the lower 48 will be warm for Thanksgiving. 

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IMO,  things are looking good in general heading in to winter. We are already starting out much "blockier" in the high latitudes compared to last year.  If that trend carries throughout the winter we should have plenty of chances to score, and quite frankly, I feel as though we are due for a winter with more blocking. Seems like we are on a record setting streak for non-blocky winters ever since the 2010/2011 winter.

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5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

IMO,  things are looking good in general heading in to winter. We are already starting out much "blockier" in the high latitudes compared to last year.  If that trend carries throughout the winter we should have plenty of chances to score, and quite frankly, I feel as though we are due for a winter with more blocking. Seems like we are on a record setting streak for non-blocky winters ever since the 2010/2011 winter.

Hopefully the blocking actually takes hold this year and it's not false. 

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The -NAO is consistent on the models.. Outside of that it's a big bowl-full of "I don't know."  Beyond 5 days, it's a crap shoot.  The upper flow is going to be knotted up with significant polar blocking.  Based on history,  we're looking for some good times ahead.  It's been a few years since we've seen this kind of look.

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55 minutes ago, Wow said:

The -NAO is consistent on the models.. Outside of that it's a big bowl-full of "I don't know."  Beyond 5 days, it's a crap shoot.  The upper flow is going to be knotted up with significant polar blocking.  Based on history,  we're looking for some good times ahead.  It's been a few years since we've seen this kind of look.

-NAO is going to be Key. We haven't gotten that since 2010. 

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