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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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4 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah, the difference seems to be the EURO blows up the western ridge and scoots it further east, making the cold stay north. 

But everything looks nice and blocky on all the models up near Greenland and the poles, with good blockification for the rest of the month.   That's my main focus.  I'm not too concerned about sensible weather in November.  Warm, cold, whatever, I'm fine. Just hoping that this new November blockimplication pattern will be the predominate pattern for the winter.  

Even the Euro could just as well develop a colder pattern down the road, it just delays. The blockiness is there and the Pacific, though not great, is better than it was in October, much better. If that's the worst we are facing (until tonight's 00z reverses the 12z again), then I think we're okay. May not be blockbuster winter, but it'll at least keep us around normal for the rest of the month.

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Euro Weeklies (based on last night's ensemble run)...

Week 3 has an Aleutian Ridge, trough off west coast, above normal heights across most of the lower 48, but temps for the week average below normal east of the Miss River due to a weak trough off NE Coast. 

Weeks 4-6 have a zonal look with ridging in the Gulf of Alaska...above normal heights across most of the lower 48....and below normal heights across Canada and out into the North Atlantic.  Cool anomalies hang across the far north into Canada with warm anomalies across most of the lower 48. 

I did a separate exercise and took the 10 analog dates from today's CPC 8-14 day forecast and rolled them forward 7 more days.  Doing this, I got a similar look as the Euro Week 3 forecast....so this would be for the end of Nov into the beginning of Dec.

 

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27 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Weeklies (based on last night's ensemble run)...

Week 3 has an Aleutian Ridge, trough off west coast, above normal heights across most of the lower 48, but temps for the week average below normal east of the Miss River due to a weak trough off NE Coast. 

Weeks 4-6 have a zonal look with ridging in the Gulf of Alaska...above normal heights across most of the lower 48....and below normal heights across Canada and out into the North Atlantic.  Cool anomalies hang across the far north into Canada with warm anomalies across most of the lower 48. 

I did a separate exercise and took the 10 analog dates from today's CPC 8-14 day forecast and rolled them forward 7 more days.  Doing this, I got a similar look as the Euro Week 3 forecast....so this would be for the end of Nov into the beginning of Dec.

 

How would there be ridging in the GoA but above normal heights across most of the US? Wouldn't there be at least some downstream troughiness?

How do week 1 and 2 look? I know that's in the operation/ens range, but I'm still curious. Or do they not have a separate seasonal model?

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46 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Weeklies (based on last night's ensemble run)...

Week 3 has an Aleutian Ridge, trough off west coast, above normal heights across most of the lower 48, but temps for the week average below normal east of the Miss River due to a weak trough off NE Coast. 

Weeks 4-6 have a zonal look with ridging in the Gulf of Alaska...above normal heights across most of the lower 48....and below normal heights across Canada and out into the North Atlantic.  Cool anomalies hang across the far north into Canada with warm anomalies across most of the lower 48. 

I did a separate exercise and took the 10 analog dates from today's CPC 8-14 day forecast and rolled them forward 7 more days.  Doing this, I got a similar look as the Euro Week 3 forecast....so this would be for the end of Nov into the beginning of Dec.

 

In all fairness, the Euro weeklies have never seemed to be that accurate, that I can remember. I know you are just calling them as they are shown, but when looking for cold in the pattern, to break a torch, they give a lot of false hope, to never materialize 

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15 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

How would there be ridging in the GoA but above normal heights across most of the US? Wouldn't there be at least some downstream troughiness?

How do week 1 and 2 look? I know that's in the operation/ens range, but I'm still curious. Or do they not have a separate seasonal model?

It has the look of the 'South' North Pacific Ridge from my outlook...i.e. a low amplitude ridge in the Gulf of Alaska that doesn't translate into a trough in the central U.S. like AK ridging would.  IMO you tend to get wonky looks on the Euro weeklies out past week 3...probably a product of averaging a large number of ensemble members...but you have to use some interpretation based on where the strongest anomaly centers are located on the forecast maps. 

Week 1 has a huge Aleutian / Bering Sea ridge.  Trough centered just off Pac NW coast.  Ridge centered in Northern Mexico.  Weak Troughing in E U.S.  +NAO

Week 2 again has huge Bering Sea ridge, but more +PNA ridging out west, and deeper trough in the east, with -NAO

Week 1 and 2 are both below normal with temps in the east....Week 2 is colder than Week 1

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

In all fairness, the Euro weeklies have never seemed to be that accurate, that I can remember. I know you are just calling them as they are shown, but when looking for cold in the pattern, to break a torch, they give a lot of false hope, to never materialize 

Yeah I like to look at them regardless.  Week 3 is probably the biggest asset as it can give some ideas out past the normal ensemble range.  Past Week 3 is pushing it unless it's a strong and consistent signal.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

6z GFS is pretty much wall to wall cold.

The GFS, GEFS, GEM, GEMS and us are bros.  The EURO and EPS are haters.  They want to pump up the AK vortex causing downstream ridge to get all puffed up and silence our cold in the east. The GEFS keeps the Alaska low in its place and we have nice chilly November.  

Everybody's still blocky though so me and the EPS are still cool.  Nothin but love.  

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39 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

The GFS, GEFS, GEM, GEMS and us are bros.  The EURO and EPS are haters.  They want to pump up the AK vortex causing downstream ridge to get all puffed up and silence our cold in the east. The GEFS keeps the Alaska low in its place and we have nice chilly November.  

Everybody's still blocky though so me and the EPS are still cool.  Nothin but love.  

PNA looks to average neutral in the LR (good from what its been)

AO looks to dive strongly negative and then stay negative as it moves towards neutral in the LR

NAO looks to dive strongly negative and then stay slightly/moderately negative in the LR

(so)Overall it does looks blocky; which would support the colder models 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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Today will be the 8th day in a row below normal at PTI. Currently sitting in the mid 40s with solid cloud deck at high noon. We are going in the tank starting sunday with the possible exception of 1 day next Tues or Wed. 

And the GFS just spit out its 1st of many computer synoptic snows for alot of folks outside the mtns for 11/30.

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5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Today will be the 8th day in a row below normal at PTI. Currently sitting in the mid 40s with solid cloud deck at high noon. We are going in the tank starting sunday with the possible exception of 1 day next Tues or Wed. 

And the GFS just spit out its 1st of many computer synoptic snows for alot of folks outside the mtns for 11/30.

Yep just took a peak at the GFS and we have a fantasy storm to salivate at for the end of the month!

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Boy the 12z GFS was fun to watch.  That is  a solidly good pattern for this time of the year.  First the -NAO builds in, then the +PNA pops with multiple s/w's diving down behind as the PV rolls through with a ton of storm potential.. first in the higher elevations, then as the cold eventually drills in deep enough, the next wave could be the ticket for a more widespread event.  Regardless, a good overall pattern.

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As I've been saying, the potential for a big phasing event around T-giving is there.  Models have been dancing around it for a couple of days now.  Euro was finally ready to show us something serious.  Cold air is marginal but if you get a wave to dig that far south you've got some room to let the cold air work in.

FdUf2ga.png

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10 minutes ago, Wow said:

As I've been saying, the potential for a big phasing event around T-giving is there.  Models have been dancing around it for a couple of days now.  Euro was finally ready to show us something serious.  Cold air is marginal but if you get a wave to dig that far south you've got some room to let the cold air work in.

 

I'm all In. 

 

pumpkin-snow-2.jpg

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