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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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13 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 12z Euro goes the way of the GFS this last run. Trough not as deep. Brief cold shot then the pattern goes Zonal. Are the models missing the blocking or is the blocking really not that strong?

False blocking, just like last 2 years! Thought/hoped this winter would be different! :(

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8 minutes ago, Wow said:

18z GFS working that Canadian block well coming into T-giving which is going to bring mid-level heights well below normal with a possible phasing opportunity.  Then decides to pop a +PNA and keep the mean trough over the east.

Yeah this run has looked the best in a couple of days from the GFS.

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17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

THAT never fails to be the case.  But a least all of you to my west and east and north and south will gave a good winter!

You're due CR. It's time to see a Raleigh - Fayetteville - Goldsboro - Rocky Mount - Greenville jackpot. I've missed out on some of those but it would be nice to see the folks in that region see a good storm. 

 

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11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

You're due CR. It's time to see a Raleigh - Fayetteville - Goldsboro - Rocky Mount - Greenville jackpot. I've missed out on some of those but it would be nice to see the folks in that region see a good storm. 

 

You still have dues to pay for your early 2000's jackpots ;)

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1F4C7407-A998-422F-8632-37DB64F68CF4.png

Low AAM winter 500mb composite doesn’t look very favorable. I may be looking at things from the wrong perspective my understanding of tropical forcing and angular momentum are very limited but the general pattern seems to be low AAM is more conductive to a -PNA high AAM is more favorable for the SE on 500mb composites 

 

High AAM years

FA4861A5-8911-4362-A2E4-284F851949D7.png

Low AAM years

33929C20-2979-4A5D-8CCF-7827FA59890F.png

The general theme is for a less favorable pacific in low AAM winter seasons, this year is going to rely on high latitude blocking more times than not if we have an unfavorable pacific pattern.

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9 hours ago, HKY1894 said:

1F4C7407-A998-422F-8632-37DB64F68CF4.png

Low AAM winter 500mb composite doesn’t look very favorable. I may be looking at things from the wrong perspective my understanding of tropical forcing and angular momentum are very limited but the general pattern seems to be low AAM is more conductive to a -PNA high AAM is more favorable for the SE on 500mb composites 

 

High AAM years

FA4861A5-8911-4362-A2E4-284F851949D7.png

Low AAM years

33929C20-2979-4A5D-8CCF-7827FA59890F.png

The general theme is for a less favorable pacific in low AAM winter seasons, this year is going to rely on high latitude blocking more times than not if we have an unfavorable pacific pattern.

From what I've read, this is consistent with the ENSO conditions; whereas if we're in a la nina we should be getting a negative AAM.

(so) This goes along with this boards agreement that blocking is crucial (more than ever) this winter.   

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There's been a lot of snow build up in Canada during the last month. For the next ten days that will continue. Notice how much is building in Quebec. Deep snow promotes colder temps. That could be very beneficial in a future CAD setup. If we get a strong high to sets up over the NE, the cold air source will be from this (or at least partially from this) region.  

 

aaaa.jpg

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

There's been a lot of snow build up in Canada during the last month. For the next ten days that will continue. Notice how much is building in Quebec. Deep snow promotes colder temps. That could be very beneficial in a future CAD setup. If we get a strong high to sets up over the NE, the cold air source will be from this (or at least partially from this) region.  

 

 

Well, the ensembles still look as blocky and eastern troughy as could be...from this weekend down to the end of the month.  That'll probably get us a below normal November I hope.  But to tell you the truth the whole "wasted pattern" weenie thinking gnaws at my mind.  Hopefully we don't waste all our blocks in the fall.  I guess I'd rather have it evaporate now, and come back in January.  

 gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_47.png

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10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Well, the ensembles still look as blocky and eastern troughy as could be...from this weekend down to the end of the month.  That'll probably get us a below normal November I hope.  But to tell you the truth the whole "wasted pattern" weenie thinking gnaws at my mind.  Hopefully we don't waste all our blocks in the fall.  I guess I'd rather have it evaporate now, and come back in January.  

 gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_47.png

My weenie thinking goes on the idea of what pattern is predominant at the end of November into early December, is the predominant pattern for the winter. There's been too many warm starts to December where we keep pushing back the pattern flip until we're saying fab February will save us.  

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

My weenie thinking goes on the idea of what pattern is predominant at the end of November into early December, is the predominant pattern for the winter. There's been too many warm starts to December where we keep pushing back the pattern flip until we're saying fab February will save us.  

Couldn't agree more. Funny what's on the Buffett from mid Nov to mid Dec ends up being the main course most of the winter.

2010/2011 winter was the last big mid winter flip I remeber. Actually first 3rd was great, then it was over most of Jan and Feb. 

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GFS and Canadian Ensembles are fairly similar with below normal temps from Day 6-16, while Euro keeps the cool anomalies centered over the Northeast states, and we are near normal for that period.  GFS suite is the coldest of the 3. 

At the end of the month, same thing, GFS and Canadian Ens have a cooler look compared to the Euro.

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29 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS and Canadian Ensembles are fairly similar with below normal temps from Day 6-16, while Euro keeps the cool anomalies centered over the Northeast states, and we are near normal for that period.  GFS suite is the coldest of the 3. 

At the end of the month, same thing, GFS and Canadian Ens have a cooler look compared to the Euro.

Can't be all in on the cold, until the King supports it!

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27 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS and Canadian Ensembles are fairly similar with below normal temps from Day 6-16, while Euro keeps the cool anomalies centered over the Northeast states, and we are near normal for that period.  GFS suite is the coldest of the 3. 

At the end of the month, same thing, GFS and Canadian Ens have a cooler look compared to the Euro.

Yeah, the difference seems to be the EURO blows up the western ridge and scoots it further east, making the cold stay north. 

But everything looks nice and blocky on all the models up near Greenland and the poles, with good blockification for the rest of the month.   That's my main focus.  I'm not too concerned about sensible weather in November.  Warm, cold, whatever, I'm fine. Just hoping that this new November blockimplication pattern will be the predominate pattern for the winter.  

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