Wow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 12z GFS is really rockin' it with the Greenland Block. Similar to 0z Euro by D9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Need these days on end of drizzle this saturday a.m. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 31 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z GFS is really rockin' it with the Greenland Block. Similar to 0z Euro by D9-10 12z is a beautiful tutorial on how a huge block has a dramatic effect on the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z is a beautiful tutorial on how a huge block has a dramatic effect on the pattern lol, don't worry the big purple Barney blob is just a tease from Mother nature to let us know what we're not going to get in met winter. She's so mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 That latest AO forecast is down to -5 and almost off the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Yowza at the cold at the end of that run. Just need a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: lol, don't worry the big purple Barney blob is just a tease from Mother nature to let us know what we're not going to get in met winter. She's so mean. The block is back this winter Niner. Believe it like a kid believes in Santa Claus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yowza at the cold at the end of that run. Just need a storm. Get the cold first! Then see what shakes out! Cold is always most important part of the equation for a good winter storm!! Always and Forever!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: That latest AO forecast is down to -5 and almost off the chart. A year to late for our man Cohen lol. Love hearing your input on all the SunRelated Things and how you think they effect AO & NAO, so please keep posting your thoughts. I am way behind on solar cycles and all things related, But im inclined to give it way more weight in affecting AO & NAO than a snow advance index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Yowza at the cold at the end of that run. Just need a storm. I want 1 big snow storm for my kids (and yes me too). a good 10 inch snow that will keep them out of school for a week. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 3 hours ago, griteater said: The block is back this winter Niner. Believe it like a kid believes in Santa Claus I believe. But eventually little kids grow up and find the truth, and it hurts. It hurts. But seriously I'm hopefull. Your good information in your outlook along with the other consensus on the QBO and solar does give me hope that we'll get some Greenland Barney's here and there through January and February. 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: A year to late for our man Cohen lol. Love hearing your input on all the SunRelated Things and how you think they effect AO & NAO, so please keep posting your thoughts. I am way behind on solar cycles and all things related, But im inclined to give it way more weight in affecting AO & NAO than a snow advance index. Yeah good information from hailstorm on the solar, I agree. Keep in coming and put that bad mamma jamma to sleep for the next 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Jason Furtado @wxjay 2h2 hours ago No one on @wxtwitter has posted the latest CFSv2 forecast for December for North America? Hmmm. Oh well, here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Thoughts from The Don in NY subforum (donsutherland1)..."I have growing confidence that winter 2017-18 will likely feature far more blocking than was the case last winter. The probabilities seem tilted somewhat toward a winter with a predominantly negative AO. The potential for periods of sustained strong blocking is on the table, but it's still too soon for me to have much confidence in that idea. Having said that, I have confidence that at least one of the winter months will be very blocky (monthly AO average of -1.000 or below)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Hearing that the Euro weeklies have -AO/NAO the next 5 weeks. Haven't seen them myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 6z GFS continues the cold look in the LR. The greedy part of me wishes this pattern was setting up two weeks later but I/we need to take what we get, when we can get it. I would even venture to say some kind of wintery threat could occur for somebody in the SE (...even outside the mountains). It's happened before this early in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS continues the cold look in the LR. The greedy part of me wishes this pattern was setting up two weeks later but I/we need to take what we get, when we can get it. I would even venture to say some kind of wintery threat could occur for somebody in the SE (...even outside the mountains). It's happened before this early in the year. You're either living in the future or Guam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 31 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: You're either living in the future or Guam? Oh I hear you. In a normal year, we really don't have much hope until January. But if the pattern can set up just right things can happen much earlier: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20101204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Actually the last couple runs show flurry action in the LR. I've been thinking and saying by watching the overall pattern in Canada. But the indicies are favoring a cold early start to winter. But notice the runs of GFS 12z and 18z. Shows the potential of a Miller B type storm setting up a huge trough in the LR. May not amount to much. But I wouldn't be surprised to see some flakes outside the mountains in va/nc here in the next coming 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 2 hours ago, griteater said: Hearing that the Euro weeklies have -AO/NAO the next 5 weeks. Haven't seen them myself I'm hearing the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 45 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Oh I hear you. In a normal year, we really don't have much hope until January. But if the pattern can set up just right things can happen much earlier: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20101204.gif Dec 2002 was one of my favorite winter storms ever! 2nd or 3rd behind Jan of 88 and maybe March 1 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm hearing the opposite The -AO/NAO weakens after week 3, but then the Pacific starts to look better with increased ridging out west and in Alaska, with weak troughing in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Dec 2002 was one of my favorite winter storms ever! 2nd or 3rd behind Jan of 88 and maybe March 1 2008 you mean March 1st, 2009! I remember vividly - only on 2 occasions have I experienced thundersnow: one was SuperStorm '93 in Tuscaloosa, AL and the other March 2009 in Simpsonville, SC (yes, I used to live south of I-85) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, drfranklin said: you mean March 1st, 2009! I remember vividly - only on 2 occasions have I experienced thundersnow: one was SuperStorm '93 in Tuscaloosa, AL and the other March 2009 in Simpsonville, SC (yes, I used to live south of I-85) Yeah, stupid phone! Mar '09 was one of the rare occasions when S of 85 is the big winner! I had right at 8"!! Amazing after all the rain earlier in the day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Evening all, I am back for another year of hopes and dreams of a snowy winter. I do appriciate all of your posts on here and look forward to some good reading throughout the winter season. Thanks in advance all. IWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 NAM just keeps getting colder each run for Sunday afternoon in the CAD areas. Going to feel like a January afternoon, year of the CAD ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 0z 6z goofus along with 18z 12z yesterday and a couple other runs show potential for the first flakes of the season. Around thanksgiving for parts of NC/Va outside of the mountains. Too far out to get into much details. But Imo looks more and more likely for a Miller B setup. Where the phasing occurs yet to be determined. But appears to be a good size trough setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 This is an interesting D10 Euro look. It's certainly far from a warm pattern. I'll be very happy if we finish November below average, which looks to stand a better than average chance of happening, at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 This weather.us site is going to be stiff competition for paysites this winter. It has models I didnt even know existed, plus some killer euro graphics, all for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Cold and dry = winning! Que Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: This weather.us site is going to be stiff competition for paysites this winter. It has models I didnt even know existed, plus some killer euro graphics, all for free. Mods need to bump this post from QC with the link and pin it up top. Thanks for sharing. All I can say is holy cow! No way this stays free for the next 3 months. I was just playing around to get euro forecasted temp at 9:00 pm for my county tonight. Unbeleivable what all you can do with this site, user friendly to say the least. I can zoom right in to just my county alone. gonna play some more with it , but when looking for wetbulb lines etc this will be awesome instead of hunting interstate markers way zoomed out etc. Edit: Oh yea you can zero in on 850 temps,500mb , rh in snow growth area etc from every model out there and really see pin point. Get a whole lot better idea of a models depicted sounding for your back yard without having to rely on a closest airport sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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