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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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59 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

If I'm going totally with what "I" experience, then no. But if I tried to put any scientific explanation to the idea, then this would count. The end location of the storm above would affect the pattern similarly as past Halloween storms.    ....If I was trying to be scientific. :) 

Scientific??  Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct.  And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor:

North-Carolina-County-Map-1.jpg.99d4bb9bedc37e4596ede61eb256cc89.jpg

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29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Scientific??  Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct.  And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor:

North-Carolina-County-Map-1.jpg.99d4bb9bedc37e4596ede61eb256cc89.jpg

Yep, winter forecasting is still not remotely reliable. Especially forecast that predict amounts of snow.

(so) I have a gut feeling we'll see some good blocking this year. We're do.....

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12 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Scientific??  Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct.  And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor:

North-Carolina-County-Map-1.jpg.99d4bb9bedc37e4596ede61eb256cc89.jpg

Hey Cold Rain, what is the Snow Shield Power Outlook for this winter?  Are you planning to power it up to the normal 1.21 gigawatts or are you going to throw us poor slobs a bone?  We in Wilson are in the snow shadow of your shield dome.

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22 hours ago, Jonathan said:

What a beautiful dome of high pressure with a VERY stout wedge (all the way to FL!) on the GFS at D10. OF course it won't happen, but if we could get a few of these this winter we could score for sure. That's just a beautiful map. Looks like typical autumn ups and downs WRT temperatures the next few weeks.

11.8 wedge.jpg

Would love to see that in January and February and add a coastal storm or 2 in the mix.

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

No -NAO/Blocking, won't do us any good!

We don't need blocking if we keep getting the parade of HPs that have been going on lately. Eventually we can time it right. I'll take my chances with an abundance of 1035+ Highs with no blocking, as opposed to less highs and more blocking.

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10 hours ago, JoshM said:

We don't need blocking if we keep getting the parade of HPs that have been going on lately. Eventually we can time it right. I'll take my chances with an abundance of 1035+ Highs with no blocking, as opposed to less highs and more blocking.

Yeah, some have scored with perfect timing, and thread the needle events the last few years, without blocking, because we haven't had a -NAO in winter in like 5 years!! I havnt seen an inch of snow imby , since '13 or '14, or further back! :(

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Day 7 Euro isn't a bad look for early November in my opinion,heights falling in the SE with Arctic air bleeding slowly south.Heights slowly inching up across the west with a shortwave across the Rockies.No death ridge over the SE but its more over toward S.Texas,Gulf Coast, and N. Mevico.

Canada ,upper Midwest is in the icebox,any of that comes down it will get cold.

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26 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Day 7 Euro isn't a bad look for early November in my opinion,heights falling in the SE with Arctic air bleeding slowly south.Heights slowly inching up across the west with a shortwave across the Rockies.No death ridge over the SE but its more over toward S.Texas,Gulf Coast, and N. Mevico.

Canada ,upper Midwest is in the icebox,any of that comes down it will get cold.

Wedgie time. That'll get it down here albeit unconvental way. See if we can get a backdoor front mid late next week

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3 hours ago, Solak said:

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago

 
 

At 12Z the CMC received a major upgrade. Featured change is model is now ocean-ice coupled. Better med-range skill. http://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2017/10/30/NOCN03_CWAO_301922___01740 

DNkTVx_WsAAcQ2H.jpg

Cool! I hope it's still good at predicting ice storms/wedges! It's my go - to model for that type of forecast !

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Indices looking better for the AO and NAO; with both going negative in the LR. PNA heading towards positive but it still averages slightly negative in the LR. I would love to see it show more positive runs in the up coming days. 

I read Grit's winter forecast and have to agree with his analysis; but I can still hope things turn around for us by the end of the month to lead to a cold start of December. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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On ‎10‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 1:19 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

Did they upgrade the GFS lately?its scores lately have been trending better the last 30 or 40 days closing up the gap with the UKIE now for 2nd.Maybe it isn't a pile of junk anymore,we'll see.

Check out day 5 and 6 scores.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

GFS back to a distant 3rd,Euro and Ukie dominate the top 2 spots.

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It's a nice fall day today (cool, windy), but it looks like an extended cool spell is coming next week:

Confidence diminishes heading into the late week, as a couple of
different scenarios present themselves based on the speed and track
of a stronger short wave racing into the Central Plains in the
Thursday time frame. The chance of light rain will continue at least
into Thursday, with better chances across the south, nearer the
frontal zone. The GFS has an intriguing solution, digging the short
wave into the northern GMEX which would prolong the chance of rain
into the weekend as it would pump moisture up the coast. Finally,
there is nothing in the pattern that would suggest scouring of the
cool air, so highs Thursday through Saturday be mainly in the mid
and upper 50s, after morning lows falling further inot the mid and
upper 30s, with some freezing temperatures not out of the question
by Friday night.

 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The ole 384 hour GFS Arctic blast, how've missed those! I'd expect 70s to occur around this time! I'm tickled pink at the thought of highs in the 50s coming this Wednesday , and some good rain chances! I'm sure come Tuesday , the rain chances will be down to 0! ;(

open-uri20150422-20810-11ej849_779819a7.

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