LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Even stronger push of the 540 line. Plows into central GA and 60% of NC. That’s some darn cold air aloft. NC and TN higher elevations are going to get NW flow snow out of that if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 We are heading into the season when we see the first mention of the Northwest Flow Snow. From KGSP.... The front will push across northeast GA and the western Carolinas on Sunday warranting healthy pops regionwide, eventually moving out overnight into Monday morning. At that point thermal profiles will be cooling rapidly given the strength of post frontal caa therefore lingering moisture across the high terrain could yield the first measurable nwfs event just in time for our snowfall season to begin at the first of November. Temperatures through the medium range will initialize warm at near normal levels, cooling a bit Saturday/Sunday given increased coverage of clouds/precip, then falling to below normal into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 0z had our first fantasy hour snowfall for a good chunk of NC west of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 0z had our first fantasy hour snowfall for a good chunk of NC west of 77. Great track, banana high...what's not to love?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Great track, banana high...what's not to love?! It's for November 8th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 It can snow in November, rare but happens every once in a blue moon. I Remeber this one. November 18-19, 2000 Winter Storm Event Overview - Description - An area of wet snow fell across northern Georgia - upstate South Carolina - into central North Carolina on Sunday November 19, 2000. 1-3 inches of snow was the general rule for much of this area. The accumulation of snow was limited by relatively warm soil temperatures. Some of the snowfall melted as it fell. A total of nearly 0.70 inches of precipitation fell at the RDU airport. About 0.50 of this amount was in the form of snow. Snow accumulated to around 1.5 inches at the airport. An accumulation of snow at RDU this early in the winter season is climatologically unusual. Total snowfall accumulation 11/18/00 through 11/19/00 Amounts are in inches and "T" represents trace amounts. Pattern of Cyclogenesis - (Active Southerly Jet, west-east surface ridge, ill defined surface wave) Surface analysis indicated a weak west to east high pressure ridge extended across the southern plains into Kentucky and a poorly defined surface wave was near the Gulf Coast. Little or no horizontal thermal advection is associated with such weak meteorological features. In the absence of horizontal thermal advection, diabatic processes determine the p-types. The stretching of the surface ridge from west to east is indicative of an active upper level southerly jet. In summary, the analysis of surface data provided the following clues: weak wave and ridge axis - lack of horizontal thermal advection so diabatic processes will determine the p-types. west to east surface ridge axis - an active upper level southerly jet measurable precipitation can occur farther north than you might think - i.e, near the centers of weak high cells along the ridge axis. 11/19/00 1200Z 300 mb wind and height (ETA analysis) 11/19/00 1200Z 850 mb temperature and height (ETA analysis) 11/19/00 1200Z Surface pressure and thickness (ETA analysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 ^ and it snowed on veterans day in 2013. It's possible. Not very probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 5 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Great track, banana high...what's not to love?! Time of year, sun angle, it's the GFS , cold rain snow shield , ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 5 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Great track, banana high...what's not to love?! Well at least it's better than last year. We weren't watching fantasy storms, we were dodging wildfires, dealing with smokey air and warm temps. At least if the Wolfpack beat the Tigers on November 4th I can console myself by tracking this storm LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Meanwhile, for the upcoming weekend..... While it is still too early to get too caught up in details, this energetic system with the potential for strong kinematic forcing from possible PFJ-STJ juxtaposition across the Deep South, coupled with 40 to 60kt warm conveyor belt moistening on the cyclonic side of the trough could bring another round of widespread moderate heavy rainfall along with the possibility of some strong to severe storms to the area. At this time, the wettest/most unsettled time period looks to be from late Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday, however this timing could speed up/or slow down over the next couple of days. Additionally, this pattern could also result in a classic "Carolina Split" with a precip minimum east of the mountains, so still quite a bit of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Maybe frost of the pumpkins for Halloween. The main upper trof axis swings by Sunday night, briefly bottoming out low level thicknesses down towards the 1310 meter range, which is a `yellow` flag for potential freezing. Mins Monday morning will be mostly in the mid 30s northwest to lower 40s in the east, with highs under sunny skies Monday stalling in the mid and upper 50s. Tuesday morning will be our coolest, with mostly mid 30s across the area with potential for widespread frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Might be out to lunch because long range NAM but it looks downright chilly on Sunday. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KCLT.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Euro has to be throwing some great upslope into Northern mtns with a 970ish sitting on jersey Coast in a few days LOOPS MRF(GFS) CMC NAVY(NOGAPS) ECMWF(to 168hrs) RETURN LINKS E-WALL HOME f24 f48 f72 f96 f120 f144 f168 f192 f216 f240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 5 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Euro has to be throwing some great upslope into Northern mtns with a 970ish sitting on jersey Coast in a few days LOOPS MRF(GFS) CMC NAVY(NOGAPS) ECMWF(to 168hrs) RETURN LINKS E-WALL HOME f24 f48 f72 f96 f120 f144 f168 f192 f216 f240 You can actually access the Euro snow, precip, and other maps for free here. It’ll be a great resource come winter! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171105-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Looks like the first freeze of the season is on tap for north GA on Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 6z GFS total snow for the next couple weeks. This will definitely allow cold to build to our north. Maybe we can get a cold air dump (towards us) around Thanksgiving or just after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 That's a good looking map. My memory, which may not be any good, is that it is more extensive than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Comparatively forget october siberian snow cover we should focus on NA november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: Comparatively forget october siberian snow cover we should focus on NA november. Hey man, I'm located right below you in Rockingham! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 For Sunday 10/29... NWSVerified account @NWS 3m3 minutes ago Storm system over the western Great Lakes will strengthen as it pushes east, bringing heavy rain & a chance of flash flooding to the NE Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 I can't wait for the first Great Lakes lows to start showing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Need to get rid of this... Glenn Burns 30 mins · Big time warming ahead for us...we may see the 80s return! Here is the new 8-14 day outlook just in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Solak said: Need to get rid of this... Glenn Burns 30 mins · Big time warming ahead for us...we may see the 80s return! Here is the new 8-14 day outlook just in. This probably goes along with my superstitions (like Halloween storm, woolly worms, etc.), but I would prefer a warm start to November; with a flip to a cold patter at or just after Thanksgiving. It "seems" that when we go into December in a cold pattern that signals the up coming overall winter pattern. So the map above looks great to me, especially with all the cold building to the north and with it being a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Solak said: Need to get rid of this... Glenn Burns 30 mins · Big time warming ahead for us...we may see the 80s return! Here is the new 8-14 day outlook just in. Glenn MF Burns loves him some maps that show warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 I don't think 80s are going to happen, except maybe kissing 80. The models are showing ridging, but it's generally flattened by some northern stream systems, and doesn't look at all like the death ridge we saw in October, which is what we'd need for 80s here this time of year. Regardless, it'll be above normal for a while after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Indices are bad, bad, bad right now. But as I stated above I would rather see this right now then at the end of November. PNA - Falling strongly negative and staying at least moderately negative in the LR AO - Going strongly positive and averaging positive in the LR NAO - Going moderately positive and averaging positive in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 BUT just looking at the 6z GFS, we don't seem to torch during the next couple of weeks. We actually get some more shots of freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 53 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices are bad, bad, bad right now. But as I stated above I would rather see this right now then at the end of November. PNA - Falling strongly negative and staying at least moderately negative in the LR AO - Going strongly positive and averaging positive in the LR NAO - Going moderately positive and averaging positive in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Yeah the indices are all going the wrong direction. The next couple of weeks will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: BUT just looking at the 6z GFS, we don't seem to torch during the next couple of weeks. We actually get some more shots of freezing temps. Does this count in your big October storm category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Does this count in your big October storm category? If I'm going totally with what "I" experience, then no. But if I tried to put any scientific explanation to the idea, then this would count. The end location of the storm above would affect the pattern similarly as past Halloween storms. ....If I was trying to be scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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