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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hopefully , a rainy weekend will materialize, from the tropical gyre in the gulf! Closing in on 1 month without 1 drop of rain!

I'm right with you. During the last couple of weeks, there has been a couple of storms around my backyard but nothing for me (dry!!!).

6z GFS for the next 10 days (looks like a couple of storms/waves during the 5-10 day period):

 

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RAH this afternoon:

Too early for the all important QFP with certainty, but the outlook 
based on model choices/blends suggest 1-2 inches possible, with 
higher totals especially if/when there is a TC to deal with along 
with the strong front in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.
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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Should be frost in a lot of WNC if that happens

It's definitely time for the higher elevations to see frost/freezes. Even lower elevations can start looking for those first mornings with "frost on the pumpkins". I think RDUs earliest freeze is around October 3rd. Of course frost doesn't need official (5ft above ground) freezing temps to occur; just give us some mid/upper 30s and clear calm nights......     

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

18z has less of that hole. It shows less qpf for western areas but more overall coverage across the SE (1-2"). 

Taking from the rich and spreading it among the poor.

Nate is prepping us for winter, since the Low is pretty much an apps runner <_<

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12z Euro did a flip in the longer range and keeps 590+ dm ridge over the eastern US basically from Sunday to Sunday. Global temps are already very warm and Arctic is starting to look like last fall, possibly worse. I'm wondering if we aren't going to set some all-time records again this winter.

I'm not so much worried about apps runners as I am about avoiding extreme drought and having monthly positive anomalies below +8.

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