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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

You know things are bleak when we are hoping volcanic eruptions lowers global temps.  

Though I hope it doesn’t erupt. 

I hate to say it but volcanic scientists think the eruption is very likely at any moment. The seismic activity is ridiculous right now around the volcano.  I’ve read 100 times we don’t have the ability to predict eruptions but the odds are WAY up at the moment. 

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35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

There was concern several months ago about a couple of the volcanoes in Iceland going off, but I haven't heard much about them lately.  Katla, I think it was?

Katla has been making noise for years.  She fooled me a time or two.  I was convinced she was going to erupt but never did.

 

Agung - 50,000 people were ordered to evacuate the exclusion zone.  Highest alert level issued.  If she for some reason doesn’t blow she’s got a ton of folks fooled. 

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5 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

.01-.04C is the number I keep hearing.  Agung is capable of VEI 6. That’s plenty big enough to lower the globl temps. 

 

The last eruption of Agung in the 60s was a VEI 5.  Again big enough to lower global temps a bit. 

It won't matter we'll be stuck under the SER while everyone else freezes!:lol::lol:

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8 hours ago, packbacker said:

PDO is over rated...lates 50’s to the 80’s was predominantly negative and that our highest snowfall average ever.  

Also the mid-2000s were ****. We went our longest stretch with so little snow at RDU. Can't remember the stat but it was bad, like <3" over 3 or 4 winters.

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

For all the west coast troughing and east coast ridging, the weather looks pretty dang good over the next week beginning tomorrow (highs in the 60's to low 80's from mtns to Columbia)......warming thereafter

Nice thing about this time of year; when it does get hot, it's not humid and the nights still cool off nicely.

 

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12z Euro looks relatively okay in the long range. The Arctic is **** and there's a lot of ridging and troughing in places where there shouldn't be, but it's not terrible over the US. Let's see if that holds. Seasonably warm is honestly the best we can hope for right now. La Nina fall after the mega-Nino torch madness of two years ago is really not favorable for a crisp fall. I'm just hoping we can see some rain. GFS only gives us rain from some random tropical system. This reminds me of October 2007 or 2000. Eventually the dry spell ended, and I'm sure it will here in November. In the meantime, ugh.

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8 hours ago, WidreMann said:

12z Euro looks relatively okay in the long range. The Arctic is **** and there's a lot of ridging and troughing in places where there shouldn't be, but it's not terrible over the US. Let's see if that holds. Seasonably warm is honestly the best we can hope for right now. La Nina fall after the mega-Nino torch madness of two years ago is really not favorable for a crisp fall. I'm just hoping we can see some rain. GFS only gives us rain from some random tropical system. This reminds me of October 2007 or 2000. Eventually the dry spell ended, and I'm sure it will here in November. In the meantime, ugh.

Man it is dry. Falls Lake (not me..ha ha) is starting to go down. We've done well in our region for the past few years (dealing with staying out of droughts). It'll be great if we can get out of this during the winter. As discussed in other post, our bad droughts tend to start in the fall/winter and climax the next spring/summer; which then hurt agricultural and water interest.     

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3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Man it is dry. Falls Lake (not me..ha ha) is starting to go down. We've done well in our region for the past few years (dealing with staying out of droughts). It'll be great if we can get out of this during the winter. As discussed in other post, our bad droughts tend to start in the fall/winter and climax the next spring/summer; which then hurt agricultural and water interest.     

Jordan is low too. Gone from being able to take my inboard deep into the Eagle sanctuary this spring to not even able to go under the bridge.  

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Probably not.  Models show multiple areas of LP forming along the trough drapped across FL and Bahamas.  Some go East a couple go West. High pressure building in the SE from the NW pretty well blocks any moisture from getting further north of FL/GA line. Models don't really show much development as far as a Tropical/Sub Tropical development. Which atm makes sense by looking at the radar. No we'll defined LP... Just a board LP trough with smaller embedded LP vortices.

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