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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Have you ever been it it? I was in Death Valley once at about 120 degrees and don't even know how to describe it. Totally different ballgame than 100 with humidity in low country SC. NO THANKS! 

I was in Needles when it was 114º.  July of 1976. Dry heat.  Just like an oven.

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, jburns said:

I was in Needles when it was 114º.  July of 1976. Dry heat.  Just like an oven.

Exactly like I remember Central Texas in Summer 1998 - it was 112-114 and walking through a recently paved parking lot was like standing in front of a wall oven. I'd still take it over hot/humid coastal SC.

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Ser Pounce said:

Exactly like I remember Central Texas in Summer 1998 - it was 112-114 and walking through a recently paved parking lot was like standing in front of a wall oven. I'd still take it over hot/humid coastal SC.

Well I admit that the area around Walterboro and Beaufort can be absolutely ridiculous in the summer so there are exceptions. June 29th 2012 would be one, remember that day? GSP hit all time high of 107, Greenville DT airport was 105 that day. CAE was like 108 or 109. USC Campus downtown reached 113 that day which is the all time high in the state! Those type temps with SE humidity had to be awful. And August 2007 was as much as I could take! BUT, those are exceptions, and 115 + is pretty normal out there. I'd still take what we have any summer. 

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Soggy end of the week?

RAH 

Showers and thunderstorms appear to likely continue Friday through
Sunday with a very moist flow mid/upper flow, very moist boundary
layer, and a cold front (or two) making runs toward the region,
likely stalling before pushing deep into central NC. So, a
continuation of high POP`s, and eventually a flood or flash flood
risk may evolve if the current QPF of 2-4 inches materializes into
the late week and weekend.
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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Guess I better get the pine straw out of the gutters.

HWO: 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heavy rain will be possible early this week and again late this week
into this weekend. Isolated flash flooding will be possible in areas
repeatedly affected by heavy rain.
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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Solak said:

Soggy end of the week?

RAH 


Showers and thunderstorms appear to likely continue Friday through
Sunday with a very moist flow mid/upper flow, very moist boundary
layer, and a cold front (or two) making runs toward the region,
likely stalling before pushing deep into central NC. So, a
continuation of high POP`s, and eventually a flood or flash flood
risk may evolve if the current QPF of 2-4 inches materializes into
the late week and weekend.

Looks like despite the surface low tracking so far west with the TS Or STS, looks like things are shaping up for a good bit of heavy rain for a prolonged period of time.. Pw's increase to 2.25 to 2.50 inches and on it's own there would likely be some flooding but with heavy rains as of late, some flooding looks like a good possibility. Pretty crazy how this low could make landfall in texas and yet some of  the heaviest rainfall could end up being in alabama, ga, edit to add. the 12z gfs sends the remnant low up the ms into the ohio valley,  cmc actually sends the remnant surface low all the way back to georgia at by day 6/7. 

Temps yesterday got to 123 in the visitors center in death valley, 122 and 121 at the other observation sites..with morning lows of 96...with the 122 station reporting a low of 101. Looks like vegas has dropped hairs a degree or two from the other day .."only 126 to 128" in the hottest spots. Still hope to see a 130 reported though. 

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well I admit that the area around Walterboro and Beaufort can be absolutely ridiculous in the summer so there are exceptions. June 29th 2012 would be one, remember that day? GSP hit all time high of 107, Greenville DT airport was 105 that day. CAE was like 108 or 109. USC Campus downtown reached 113 that day which is the all time high in the state! Those type temps with SE humidity had to be awful. And August 2007 was as much as I could take! BUT, those are exceptions, and 115 + is pretty normal out there. I'd still take what we have any summer. 

I remember that day, because I took and posted a picture of thermometer in my car (unreliable as they are) to send to some friends complaining about whatever was going on in Texas at the time. Just went back and looked at it to check the date. I guess facebook was finally good for something!

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Lookout said:

Looks like despite the surface low tracking so far west with the TS Or STS, looks like things are shaping up for a good bit of heavy rain for a prolonged period of time.. Pw's increase to 2.25 to 2.50 inches and on it's own there would likely be some flooding but with heavy rains as of late, some flooding looks like a good possibility. Pretty crazy how this low could make landfall in texas and yet some of  the heaviest rainfall could end up being in alabama, ga, edit to add. the 12z gfs sends the remnant low up the ms into the ohio valley,  cmc actually sends the remnant surface low all the way back to georgia at by day 6/7. 

Temps yesterday got to 123 in the visitors center in death valley, 122 and 121 at the other observation sites..with morning lows of 96...with the 122 station reporting a low of 101. Looks like vegas has dropped hairs a degree or two from the other day .."only 126 to 128" in the hottest spots. Still hope to see a 130 reported though. 

According to the link I posted in the observation thread, that stations high was 130.3. There ya go!

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Summer cancel! It's time... relentless rain and no heatwaves.

sure looks like there are no heatwaves in the cards for the next 2-3 weeks it appears....ridge is setting up over the SE versus offshore so we see some warm days but the real heat is out west...still there is plenty of summer left after the first week of July for us to get a few heatwaves in though this summer is already well behind last summer in terms of heat. So far this summer has been pretty typical actually. 

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

sure looks like there are no heatwaves in the cards for the next 2-3 weeks it appears....ridge is setting up over the SE versus offshore so we see some warm days but the real heat is out west...still there is plenty of summer left after the first week of July for us to get a few heatwaves in though this summer is already well behind last summer in terms of heat. So far this summer has been pretty typical actually. 

I actually would not mind some hot sunny days.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted 
RAH:

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday... 
 Given the low confidence, will refrain from getting to specific in 
forecast details. While we do not expect continuous heavy rain 
through that period, conditions will be favorable for episodic heavy 
rain through the period, perhaps initially from the initial surge of 
tropical moisture and embedded upper disturbances (potentially 
convectively induced) ejecting NEWD across the region, and then 
followed by a second or quite possibly even third heavy rain event 
associated with Cindy's remnant circulation center/energy aloft and 
then if separate, with the actual cold frontal passage.
Early indicators suggest that central NC could see widespread heavy 
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches from Thursday night through early 
next week. 

Rainfall totals over the past 5 to 7 days are already at 400 to 600 
percent of normal across much of the area. Numerous creeks/small 
streams as well as main stem rivers are running high. Thus, any 
additional heavy rainfall over the next 5 days will result in prime 
conditions for both Flash and River flooding. A flood watch may will 
likely be needed, once better forecast confidence is reached.
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, downeastnc said:

sure looks like there are no heatwaves in the cards for the next 2-3 weeks it appears....ridge is setting up over the SE versus offshore so we see some warm days but the real heat is out west...still there is plenty of summer left after the first week of July for us to get a few heatwaves in though this summer is already well behind last summer in terms of heat. So far this summer has been pretty typical actually. 

Yeah this season has been perfect compared to last season. Plenty of rain for most. Near normal temps.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, downeastnc said:

sure looks like there are no heatwaves in the cards for the next 2-3 weeks it appears....ridge is setting up over the SE versus offshore so we see some warm days but the real heat is out west...still there is plenty of summer left after the first week of July for us to get a few heatwaves in though this summer is already well behind last summer in terms of heat. So far this summer has been pretty typical actually. 

We had our heat waves in Feb.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Temps look below average for the next couple of weeks...we haven't been over 93 yet this year and the models have us below average temps into early July, granted the average high here in July is 90-91 so technically 89 would be below average. We are currently + 1.3 for June but we had 9 days in a row over 90 from June 11-19 the hottest stretch of summer by far and even then we only managed 93 twice. July looks to warm back up in the long range though with highs in the low 90s but then again that's pretty much par for the course this time of year and isn't anything out of the ordinary.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Hard to believe after all the Cindy hype that the models (GFS/NAM) are now showing just 0.20" +/- over the next week for RDU

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Solak said:

Hard to believe after all the Cindy hype that the models (GFS/NAM) are now showing just 0.20" +/- over the next week for RDU

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

Probably going to be the pattern going forward. Dry to very dry and eventually very hot. A lot like the summer of 1995 when June was wet and then July and most of August were very hot and dry. 

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jshetley said:

Probably going to be the pattern going forward. Dry to very dry and eventually very hot. A lot like the summer of 1995 when June was wet and then July and most of August were very hot and dry. 

Lol..... give it up. All it has done up here is rained with mostly below normal temps.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

The Shet is getting wet this a.m. per radar.

Greensboro pti is gonna make it atleast until July 1st without hitting 90. Looking ahead next week its gonna be nice after the rain threats shut down throughout the day Saturday. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s for the last week of June is as good as it can get. And we should stay dry most of the week. wondering what the latest date Greensboro took to hit 90?

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