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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Local NWS has us getting to 75 tomorrow and 76 today, we haven't been over 72 in the last 4 days.

I saw that. Also the 12z NAM did shift the warmth to RDU (for tomorrow, back cool for Friday). You would still be on the line with the front oriented NW to SE between RDU and your location.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

We are also warming up pretty quick as the warm air works its way slowly NE, up to 77 now and the DP is going up as well......

This has been fun to look at the last few days, there have been some insane gradients on it...http://climate.ncsu.edu/map/

 

My dewpoint was 50 at 7 am.  68 at the moment.  Temp is now 84º. Starting to feel summerlike.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jburns said:

My dewpoint was 50 at 7 am.  68 at the moment.  Temp is now 84º. Starting to feel summerlike.

yep that sucks , but  really May is pretty much a summer month so I will take anything with low dews and temps below 75 and call it a win. The GFS has gotten all flippy floppy in the mid to long range which probably means a pattern change and a return of the SE ridge.....so gonna get hotter but the upside is chances for good storms goes up.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Forecast and GFS 12z show a dry week after Saturday, then a wet week (1.44") to follow starting next Friday (5/19) 

For the weekend and early next week, both surface high pressure and
an upper level ridge will build over the area. This scenario will
allow for moderating temperatures as heights build, limited cloud
cover, and no precipitation in the forecast.

Temperatures will trend milder each day. While temperatures on
Sunday will be near normal, by Wednesday, readings about five to ten
degrees above normal are anticipated.
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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Solak said:

Forecast and GFS 12z show a dry week after Saturday, then a wet week (1.44") to follow starting next Friday (5/19) 


For the weekend and early next week, both surface high pressure and
an upper level ridge will build over the area. This scenario will
allow for moderating temperatures as heights build, limited cloud
cover, and no precipitation in the forecast.

Temperatures will trend milder each day. While temperatures on
Sunday will be near normal, by Wednesday, readings about five to ten
degrees above normal are anticipated.

This is for next Tuesday. It then gets progressively warmer towards our area the following days. Poor Florida...

**BUT is this the GFS showing ridiculous temps, like it continuously showed for the upstate SC a couple of years back.. (remember the 110 temps always forecasted)  

 

aaaa.jpg

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Solak said:

12zGFS today shows some sort of soggy tropical low (996mb) that originates in the islands, off/along the SE coast May 24-25, then up the mid Atlantic coast.

More like a hurricane lol takes it to 984mb, this would be a TS/cane.....CMC has a much weaker, slower ( along the FL coast still)  surface reflection but its there.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_46.thumb.png.994b1db1a9992d0fded5fb7aa5910270.png

 

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted 
RAH:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 154 PM EDT Friday...

Much warmer week ahead, along with a chance for drying.

NW flow aloft Monday and Tuesday is forecast to give way to a
developing upper level ridge over the southeastern United States mid
to late week. While temperatures will be at or slightly above normal
levels Monday and Tuesday, readings will soar Wednesday through
Friday, reaching the lower 90s for many areas. Highs Monday and
Tuesday will modify through the 80s with overnight lows in the 60-65
range. Lows by mid to late week are expected to be 10 degrees above
normal. Highs Wednesday through Friday in the lower 90s should
average 12-15 degrees above normal. Dew points are expected to run
in the 50s early in the week, rising into the 60s late week giving
way to late June heat and humidity (well before Memorial Day).
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Going to be hot to end the week, but the long range models have a nice return to normal or BN temps and more rain after this hot week.....should hit 90 for the first time at PGV sometime Wed-Fri., this is slightly behind schedule with the mean first 90 degree high date of May 6th. If we fail to hit 90 this week it will be into June before it happens if the models are right. Looks like we should flirt with 90 everyday Wed thru Fri though.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Going to be hot to end the week, but the long range models have a nice return to normal or BN temps and more rain after this hot week.....should hit 90 for the first time at PGV sometime Wed-Fri., this is slightly behind schedule with the mean first 90 degree high date of May 6th. If we fail to hit 90 this week it will be into June before it happens if the models are right. Looks like we should flirt with 90 everyday Wed thru Fri though.

6z GFS continues to show the cool pattern for next week into the first part of June. If it's right many of us will save on AC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017051606&fh=18

 

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

2:55 PM Sunday 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An active and very wet weather pattern will be setting up Monday
night and continuing through Wednesday. Heavy rain and the threat of
flooding will be the primary threat, especially Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as rainfall amounts are expected to range from 2 to 3 inches
or more. Isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible.
Residents of central North Carolina should stay tuned for updates
regarding this potential adverse weather situation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

The CMC is predictably gung ho with the moisture in the GOM moving onshore and NE as a organized low, the GFS para has the feature as well but takes it more east off the SE coast either way it could be a tropical system.....its pretty far out there in the 10 day range and I haven't seen the Euro to see if it hints at it as well still could be a potentially big rain maker for parts of the deep south up to NC.

 

 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

WeatherBell foresees a rather cool June:

 

@weatherbell  
The cool, wet pattern in the Central and Eastern U.S. looks to continue through early June with saturated soils and persistent cool shots.

https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherbell/status/869924503597527040

Hope they are more right about the summer patterns, cause they are consistantly wrong

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