griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 UKMet still looks decent. It looks similar to GFS thru 96 though the wave looks maybe a little better than the GFS....then from 96-144 it digs more northern stream energy into the southern Apps with sfc trough/low remaining off the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet still looks decent. It looks similar to GFS thru 96 though the wave looks maybe a little better than the GFS....then from 96-144 it digs more northern stream energy into the southern Apps with sfc trough/low remaining off the SE coast CMC came in healthy...more to come after this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: you obviously didn't run the kuchera, cobb, or mack methods lol My method equals cut models by 98%, then boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Now the MA can laugh at us...we (central NC) are the snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC came in healthy...more to come after this panel. Ends up with a 12 inch bullseye southeast of Raleigh...with 6+ area over E NC. It also has a damming meso high over VA as the precip works through. Mildly interesting that the CMC and UKMet try to dig in more northern stream energy after Sun and don't run the sfc low up the East Coast like the GFS...more of a slider off the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Now the MA can laugh at us...we (central NC) are the snow hole. That is funny , because it includes the Tuesday storm, they have all their eggs in that basket! Still hilarious , hysterical, if they both go south of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 43 minutes ago, FallsLake said: LOL...< 1" at RDU Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GEFS isn't messing around with this day 6 east coast threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS isn't messing around with this day 6 east coast threat. Does that track resemble the March 1960 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I posted in the other thread that the CMC shows a more SE solution, hence some snow for our area. We may see models trend towards this in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I posted in the other thread that the CMC shows a more SE solution, hence some snow for our area. We may see models trend towards this in the near future. Would be pretty crazy if we see accumulating snow Sunday and again Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Does that track resemble the March 1960 storm? No not really...not sure what a good analog is for this to be honest. The day 4 threat you could argue is 1960'ish among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: GEFS isn't messing around with this day 6 east coast threat. Impressive agreement at day 6 with GEFS/EPS...GEPS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 37 minutes ago, packbacker said: Impressive agreement at day 6 with GEFS/EPS...GEPS too. Does it yield any snow for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Does it yield any snow for us? No! It's raining pre emergent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Does it yield any snow for us? Not sure...only got the freebie maps. But that looks pretty good. It will trend colder...they usually do :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 ^ Lolz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 How can we be just over 2 days away from the start of a storm and a global model (CMC) doesn't even have the initial storm? I'm really confused by the midday models right now, too much discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 40 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: How can we be just over 2 days away from the start of a storm and a global model (CMC) doesn't even have the initial storm? I'm really confused by the midday models right now, too much discrepancy. That same model is also showing this setup for next Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Finally a below normal month? This includes Mar 1-11 actual departures plus the 7 day GFS forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/7/2017 at 1:23 PM, jburns said: It comes up every year along with 1960. I'm surprised no one has mentioned the June 14/15/16/17, 24,354 BC storm. Cold air poured south off of the glaciers to the north. At the same time, a moisture-laden low moved north from the water to the south(not named yet). They collided over what is now the Carolinas and produced epic amounts of snow. One old-timer at the time described it this way, "Grok uta notab wasuarto metoka." Wow. You can't argue with that. P.S. There isn't going to be accumulating snow again in the piedmont this year. Gotta bump the bolded jburns no more snow declaration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 hours ago, griteater said: Gotta bump the bolded jburns no more snow declaration lol All I saw was a heavy frost that was gone by 11 am and 11 am was really 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 21 hours ago, griteater said: Finally a below normal month? This includes Mar 1-11 actual departures plus the 7 day GFS forecast I bet some people in the upper Plains and Canadian prairies are hopping mad right now. Their normals are low enough right now so that this little below-average period is putting them back into solid winter after an early spring in February. Note that Washington state can seem to do no wrong this winter as they have been the one cool corner of the country even when everybody else was torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, jburns said: lol All I saw was a heavy frost that was gone by 11 am and 11 am was really 10 am. Well, one month ago today it was in the low 80's, so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12Z GFS says winter pretty much sticking around till the end of the month, only one day had a high over 60 IMBY on the entire run and it had this as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Marvelous March! Exciting chances continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Marvelous March! Exciting chances continue. para GFS also has a SE snowstorm in the extreme range though we are really getting outside of the normal climo window for this to happen.....with that high placement if we do see a low like this or better yet a low like this 100 miles further south it will be one for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, downeastnc said: para GFS also has a SE snowstorm in the extreme range though we are really getting outside of the normal climo window for this to happen.....with that high placement if we do see a low like this or better yet a low like this 100 miles further south it will be one for the record books. It can happen. Shoot this month is going to be our snowiest month of the season the way it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 hours ago, downeastnc said: 12Z GFS says winter pretty much sticking around till the end of the month, only one day had a high over 60 IMBY on the entire run and it had this as well..... Lol, I saw TWC shows GSP with a high of 81 next Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 26th storm still on GFS !! That is gonna be the one! A Big Frosty special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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