FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Keep in mind the tropical tidbits snow maps show ice as snow accumulation too. People keep forgetting this when looking at the snowfall maps but actual snow totals aren't nearly as high for most places as it seems due to mixing and ice. Also the GFS can have a cold bias too so it's best to wait until we start seeing if mesoscale models like NAM are picking up on a warm nose. Lol...just posted RAH discussion agreeing with that thinking. Goes back to my earlier post of not wanting to be on the GFS snow/rain line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: They have learned that lesson the hard way! (as we all have) Kind of funny how the NAM has gained more respect; especially in its outer time ranges (hour 84). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Kind of funny how the NAM has gained more respect; especially in its outer time ranges (hour 84). Well for this winter season anyway. The drives are just not very reliable this year. Have to rely on the short game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 So comparing the 6z GFS to the 6z NAM at hour 84, the NAM is warmer with dew point temps pushing into our area. For RDU the GFS is around 12 but closer to 22 on the NAM. Granted there were teens on the NAM just to the north with a north wind. Out west the freezing precip line on the GFS meandered into Arkansas whereas on the NAM it was farther north into central Missouri. Not saying this would change things in later time ranges, but just stating the NAM is warmer (setting up for this system) than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So comparing the 6z GFS to the 6z NAM at hour 84, the NAM is warmer with dew point temps pushing into our area. For RDU the GFS is around 12 but closer to 22 on the NAM. Granted there were teens on the NAM just to the north with a north wind. Out west the freezing precip line on the GFS meandered into Arkansas whereas on the NAM it was farther north into central Missouri. Not saying this would change things in later time ranges, but just stating the NAM is warmer (setting up for this system) than the GFS. Higher dewpoints in our area also indicate moisture coming in more quickly, before cold air settles in right? Believe that also got us last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauce-age Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Latest runs still look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Higher dewpoints in our area also indicate moisture coming in more quickly, before cold air settles in right? Believe that also got us last time. Not sure. The storm is still out ~ Arkansas at hour 84. There's just less of a push, or a delay, of cold/dry air. It will be interesting to see what the upcoming NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 PGV has about 40 miles of wiggle room on the GFS thickness plots, alarm bells will sound if the NAM comes in boarder line. My money would be on the VA boarder counties at this point in to southern VA, it is nice to fiannly have something to track inside 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: PGV has about 40 miles of wiggle room on the GFS thickness plots, alarm bells will sound if the NAM comes in boarder line. My money would be on the VA boarder counties at this point in to southern VA, it is nice to fiannly have something to track inside 4 days. I agree. I like the setup at hour 48 on the RGEM (another short range model). It actually has a colder look than the GFS with that beautiful 1052 high coming out of Canada: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That indeed is a power HP coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, CaryWx said: That indeed is a power HP coming down Dang 1052, yo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 navgem run if the cold is here this could be a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: navgem run It's also much different for the Tuesday storm. Colder for us but with a low too far to the SE. As always, I think we have many upcoming model changes coming our way (for both systems). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 does anyone have the clown maps from the gefs or the euro last night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 38 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I agree. I like the setup at hour 48 on the RGEM (another short range model). It actually has a colder look than the GFS with that beautiful 1052 high coming out of Canada: Don't like the high placement as modeled here! Not in a good spot for CAD, and looks exactly same as the location of our Jan crap-fest storm! Gotta get cold first, as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Don't like the high placement as modeled here! Not in a good spot for CAD, and looks exactly same as the location of our Jan crap-fest storm! Gotta get cold first, as always! Give it time to work in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Don't like the high placement as modeled here! Not in a good spot for CAD, and looks exactly same as the location of our Jan crap-fest storm! Gotta get cold first, as always! One local Met. saying Plowable snow likely in the Asheville area, that confidence is starting to grow with a colder high pressure coming out of Canada. Another Met. saying a lot can change but it looks like phasing will take place of the northern and southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, fritschy said: One local Met. saying Plowable snow likely in the Asheville area, that confidence is starting to grow with a colder high pressure coming out of Canada. Another Met. saying a lot can change but it looks like phasing will take place of the northern and southern stream. Either way, I'm going to travel to see snow! Asheville will work, but will travel to Roxboro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Give it time to work in! Nice to see a real high pressure coming down, instead of those record 1020's that were showing up for past phantom threats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hell maybe this storm could produce its own cold air like some have done in the past, I'll take the cold air anyway I can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Nice to see a real high pressure coming down, instead of those record 1020's that were showing up for past phantom threats! Agreed. Hopefully, it works in in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 DGEX anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Agreed. Hopefully, it works in in time. I guess that map was from Friday, so I guess it could work in by Sunday! I'm wishing this cold a little more south, so I can stay at home and see Frozen! If it don't work out, we will score Tuesday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: DGEX anyone? That's closer to the 0z GFS in terms of the winter precip cut off line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I guess that map was from Friday, so I guess it could work in by Sunday! I'm wishing this cold a little more south, so I can stay at home and see Frozen! If it don't work out, we will score Tuesday ! where do you work at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 i still fear the warm nose and won't be sucked back in, i'll wait until the NAM within 48 or so before buying any accums. I'll be ecstatic with seeing a few flakes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 If 12z suites come in looking good, will a thread be started on this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: If 12z suites come in looking good, will a thread be started on this storm? Light it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: i still fear the warm nose and won't be sucked back in, i'll wait until the NAM within 48 or so before buying any accums. I'll be ecstatic with seeing a few flakes at this point. Bingo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: i still fear the warm nose and won't be sucked back in, i'll wait until the NAM within 48 or so before buying any accums. I'll be ecstatic with seeing a few flakes at this point. Your too far North, so you don't have to worry about mixing issues!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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