NCSNOW Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 This will be a pretty clown map for mby even. But cutting it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 South trend stopped too soon for my liking. You know the north trend will come with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This will be a pretty clown map for mby even. But cutting it close. You beat me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Brick is the winner. 12 inches. No joke northern wake is jackpot on 0z clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Seems like a really tenuous setup - can't imagine central NC seeing anywhere close to what the GFS is putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 UKMet looks similar to GFS thru day 4-5, but then phases in more northern stream energy so that by Mon night at hr144 it has a phased low off the SE coast with trough axis still back in MS...looks fairly cold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet looks similar to GFS thru day 4-5, but then phases in more northern stream energy so that by Mon night at hr144 it has a phased low off the SE coast with trough axis still back in MS...looks fairly cold too Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Is that good? Looks like the UKMet would be pretty good, yes by Mon. CMC brings light snow thru much of TN/NC on Sunday, then has a similar phasing look as the UKMet on Mon into Tues, but it phases too far N/NE of us so it's warmer with rain save the northern mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 This is the part where we start talking about how the models wont have a good handle on it until the energy gets sampled around Friday.......or that we never want to be in the bullseye 4 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 0z Euro literally has snow for all of NC (except a small area near Wilmington) @ 108. It's not heavy, but a start. Ends up being a 1-2 inch for most of the state, with some 3 inch totals around the Mountains, and eastern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: 0z Euro literally has snow for all of NC (except a small area near Wilmington) @ 108. It's not heavy, but a start. Ends up being a 1-2 inch for most of the state, with some 3 inch totals around the Mountains, and eastern part of the state. Of course the Euro gets better after the 00Z GFS went back north....I think we would all lock in a general 1-3" snowfall for most of NC if we had the chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 06Z GFS looks better.....well for MBY anyways, but it reverses the north bump we saw at 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The 06z GFS pretty much threw everyone along the 40 corridor from 100 miles west of Nashville to the Atlantic ocean a big wintry bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Keep in mind, this includes a lot Ice in the eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Wow, major ice storm, south of Raleigh. Some areas around 0.8 of ZR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Wow, major ice storm, south of Raleigh. Some areas around 0.8 of ZR! Lol! #WEENIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Lol! #WEENIE Just sharing the info from the 6z, I didn't say if I thought it would happen. BTW, I didn't go forward onto the next frame, some areas ~ 1 inch ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, JoshM said: Keep in mind, this includes a lot Ice in the eastern half of the state. Looks like 6-7" of snow and the rest sleet/zr in my neck of the woods. would be pretty epic and would do a number of the flowering trees as most of them have leafed out here. Nice to see the GFS not continue the north bumps.....though there is still an eternity of runs to go between now and then for this to trend away from us and really its what we all should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Even though the 0z gives my back yard more snow (12") I like the 6z better because it's back south which gives us some wiggle room. The last storm the snow/sleet cut off ended up being 30 miles NW from modeled. Don't like being on the line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Even though the 0z gives my back yard more snow (12") I like the 6z better because it's back south which gives us some wiggle room. The last storm the snow/sleet cut off ended up being 30 miles NW from modeled. Don't like being on the line.... You go from a shi* ton of snow, to a crippling ice storm, with such a narrow cut off. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 BTW, round 2 is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: You go from a shi* ton of snow, to a crippling ice storm, with such a narrow cut off. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. My loca weather on fox affiliate, 60s Sat/Sun!!! * cough cough* Fox 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: My loca weather on fox affiliate, 60s Sat/Sun!!! * cough cough* Fox 21 Surprise storm is fine with me, let's cripple the main roads with carolina paste! I can pickup all the Spartanburg locals, I need to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 MA/NE folks will like this run as the second low crushes DC/NYC/BOS mid week.....then there is quite the cold shot for the eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: You go from a shi* ton of snow, to a crippling ice storm, with such a short cut off. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. Never shows me in freezing rain. I would briefly mix with sleet but looks like mostly snow. But that's us looking at this particular models run. We still have some changes coming, hopefully for the positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Never shows me in freezing rain. I would briefly mix with sleet but looks like mostly snow. But that's us looking at this particular models run. We still have some changes coming, hopefully for the positive. For NC, CMC/Euro/GFS show at least an inch or two, for pretty much the entire state. So I feel good ATM, subject to change in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, JoshM said: For NC, CMC/Euro/GFS show at least an inch or two, for pretty much the entire state. So I feel good ATM, subject to change in 6 hours. Yeah got to like that we are inside of 4 days as well....need it to trend another 100 miles south and stay there lol....its cold on the GFS for a long time after the storm the highest temp it shows for MBY from Sat to Sat is 45 with lows into the 20's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Even though the 0z gives my back yard more snow (12") I like the 6z better because it's back south which gives us some wiggle room. The last storm the snow/sleet cut off ended up being 30 miles NW from modeled. Don't like being on the line.... Keep in mind the tropical tidbits snow maps show ice as snow accumulation too. People keep forgetting this when looking at the snowfall maps but actual snow totals aren't nearly as high for most places as it seems due to mixing and ice. Also the GFS can have a cold bias too so it's best to wait until we start seeing if mesoscale models like NAM are picking up on a warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 RAH (they want to wait for the NAM to get within range): For late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, we are still seeing some differences in how the models are handling the low pressure system that could bring some snowfall across our northern tier on Saturday morning. The low track is still south of the area which is in a favorable location for snow and the deterministic runs of the ECMWF and the GFS are still cold enough through the boundary layer and saturated enough in the snow growth zone to support snow at least across the northern counties with locations north of US-64 seeing the possibility of snow. At least in the GFS forecast soundings. South of that line looks to be too warm and thus fairly confident for all rain, especially going down to Fayetteville and Goldsboro. The problem with basing the forecast soundings off of theGFS soundings is that it tends to be too cold in the low levels and in this case is a fairly cold outlier. We still are too far out in time to see the thermal structure in the NAM which did well earlier in the season. Therefore there is enough uncertainty at this time to go with rain or snow in the forecast across the north with all rain to the south. Highs Sunday only in the low to mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: RAH (they want to wait for the NAM to get within range): They have learned that lesson the hard way! (as we all have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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