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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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3 minutes ago, NCsandhills said:

True. IIRC it had it over a much wider area for quite awhile, though.

I was pretty happy with our sleet base with snow on top here in Franklin County the last storm.  We had awesome sledding for the kids for 3 days straight on the old school rail sleds. 

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15 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Just the usual day 3-5 period where guidance tries to lose it, we have a couple days before this comes back and then we get to worry about temps, soil temps and sun angles.  

GFS looks really similar to this...weakish S/W in the northern stream drops down over the central US and cuts across the SE popping a low off the SC coast....its a workable setup if the cold is there. The odds of this happening any given year has to be way low, but it does happen March 1960, March 1984, Mar 1993 ( although that was a different beast all together), maybe its time to add another one to that list...

sfcmap_1960-03-09.png

 

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Maybe,  but we will have to do it without a 50/50 and the parent high is centered in southern Saskatchewan.  I told my son and one coworker back in Mid February it would snow here in March, even went as far as accumulating type and threw out the 10th as a date.  If it is close I may slip in to VA for the day, quick up and back before packing up the gear for a long summers nap.

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11 minutes ago, JoshM said:

It'll be a surprise storm for some, if it happens. None of the media outlets around here are even mentioning any sort of wintry precip.

It feels too soon to get worked up about it one way or another. Just seems like an oddity worth following. 

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53 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Maybe,  but we will have to do it without a 50/50 and the parent high is centered in southern Saskatchewan.  I told my son and one coworker back in Mid February it would snow here in March, even went as far as accumulating type and threw out the 10th as a date.  If it is close I may slip in to VA for the day, quick up and back before packing up the gear for a long summers nap.

Let me know.

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hell, they won't talk about 6 day out snowstorms in January!! I can see why they would not in mid March

Usually, within ~ 5 days, stations will put "Mountain Snow", "Wintry precip???", or "Mix N I-40" in the forecast. Even if we get an epic storm (hahahaha), it'll be on a Sunday, a lot of folks will be at home watching basketball.

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1 hour ago, WeatherNC said:

Maybe,  but we will have to do it without a 50/50 and the parent high is centered in southern Saskatchewan.  I told my son and one coworker back in Mid February it would snow here in March, even went as far as accumulating type and threw out the 10th as a date.  If it is close I may slip in to VA for the day, quick up and back before packing up the gear for a long summers nap.

WeatherNC - wouldn't you characterize this as a bona fide 50/50 low over Newfoundland?

Image is from the GFS Ensemble Mean at 00z Sunday.  Trend has been to lower the heights over the Northeast and raise the heights through the Great Basin out west (colder for us).

1488941848254.gif

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55 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

too early for gfs.  can't be looking at nam...not in range yet

NAM sniffed out warm nose for last system as far out as hour 84... may not be good for details but it is for warm noses. Everyone threw it out saying "it's the 84 hour nam" only for it to be exactly right about the warm nose being a major issue. It's time to start looking at it for trends and signs of a warm nose imo. 

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